Wednesday August 31 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)

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On this final day of August 2022 we will be transitioning from a humid air mass that tacked on another 90+ day to Boston’s total yesterday and into a drier one, but it will take a number of hours before we feel the drier air. The cold front that leads the new air mass in is just going through the region now, having produced a pretty solid band of light to moderate showers with embedded downpours in the pre-dawn to dawn time frame. As of 7:00 a.m. (the time I began writing this blog update), the shower band is just getting set to exit the NH Seacoast and MA East Coast but is just about to cross Outer Cape Cod before exiting there by 9:00 a.m. Areas to the west saw their showers earlier, and are already rain-free with clearing starting to move in. This drying / clearing trend will push eastward, and while we have a warm day (not as hot as yesterday) the dew point will be going down gradually from west to east as the drier air mass moves into our region. Another secondary front / trough will be passing by later Thursday with a bit of a reinforcement of dry and slightly cooler air to move in on Friday. So as we start September, the trend is drier/cooler as low pressure departs via eastern Canada and high pressure approaches via the Great Lakes area. This high will settle across our region Saturday providing a splendid start to the Labor Day weekend. Saturday could be one of those days with a very large diurnal temperature swing. After we get our cool air delivery on Friday, the high center comes right over our region Friday night and early Saturday morning, the clear sky and calm wind will allow for radiational cooling and with a low dew point, the temperature can fall well down into the 50s with maybe even some upper 40s in the deeper interior valleys. During the day on Saturday, the high center will slip off to the south and east and allow a more southerly air flow to take hold, warming us up nicely, especially inland, away from the ocean’s influence, where areas that were near 50 at sunrise can be around 80 by early afternoon. But despite the warm up the humidity will remain low on Saturday and it will be great for outdoor activities. A bit of a stronger southwesterly air flow will take hold on Sunday, pushing higher humidity into the region, with high pressure now to the south, and a cold front approaching from the northwest. This front looks like it may be somewhat moisture starved and not have a lot of support, but I cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm for some areas later Sunday. Still have to tweak the more precise timing of this threat…

TODAY: Showers exit coastal areas before 8:00 a.m. except outer Cape Cod by 9:00 a.m. with clouds giving way to sun and passing clouds west to east. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s early in the day, gradually but steadily falling to upper 50s to middle 60s by late in the day. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind W shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Labor Day September 5 should feature cooler weather and a sun/cloud mix with high pressure to the north sending a northeasterly air flow into the region. High pressure sinks to the south with fair weather and a warming trend September 6-8 before the next frontal boundary arrives with a shower threat and higher humidity at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

As we reach the middle of September we’ll likely be governed by high pressure with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures and we’ll continue to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at least increase the surf along the coastline.

53 thoughts on “Wednesday August 31 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    If I am reading things correctly, Logan picked up 0.33 inch
    and Norwood 0.42. I figure here in JP, somewhere in the middle
    of those 2. Ahhhhhh NICE!!! I am thankful!

    1. According to Chief met Cindy, Logan received 0.28 inch but you could be correct as the final tally may not have been completed when she came on air. Either way those amounts aren’t half bad all things considering this bone dry summer.

        1. You see as of 6AM it was 0.28 but by 7 AM there was another 0.05 inch making the total 0.33 inch. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK.

    Interesting how the showers came well ahead of the front and the drier air will arrive well behind the front. Too bad about the latter. Oh well.

    And Murphy’s Law will be in effect as usual this holiday weekend, albeit with little real impact.
    😉

    1. Looks like a great weekend!
      No Murphys this time.
      We can handle some clouds and a minor shower threat. 🙂

  5. Thanks, TK.

    We had 0.23 overnight. I have no idea when as I slept through it. My sensor said two lightning strikes but 12 miles away which may explain why I didn’t wake up.

    1. Thank you, JJ

      That’s the one that…as I’ve said many times….began my interest in weather. I often admire my mom for not showing any sign of panic to avoid upsetting me (5) and my two year old brother. With my dad at work in Boston and the ocean coming into our cottage and no phone, she had to be very worried.

        1. We sure are. If amazes me how little we knew back then. My dad had no warning that Carol would be in this area as early as it was. He thought he had the day to go to work and get back to Humarock.

      2. I’m not sure when my interest in weather came – could have been Hurricane Carol too. We lived in Quincy and I was 3 yrs. old and looked out my parents bedroom and said “look at the ocean outside” as we were flooded. A relative got us out but some people had to get out in boats. Or it might have been a few yrs. later when we lived in Holbrook and a neighbor said tornadoes come out of a clear sky. Looked it up; of course not true. I kept a diary from 1969 – 1973 when my husband and I got engaged. The first thing I wrote each time was what the weather was that day!

  8. 0.77″ at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound this morning.

    Here’s the question for everyone, Weatherwise, what do the following years have in common:

    2001
    2002
    2013
    2022

    I’ll answer in a while after some people try to figure it out.

    4. The correct answer is:

      In 171 years of records (back to 1851), those 4 years are the ONLY ones that have not had a single hurricane in the Atlantic through the end of August.

      2. Apparently, the person who tweeted that earlier didn’t research back too far. This is actually the 7th time, not 4th time, we’ve gone through August without a hurricane. The full list:

        1967
        1984
        1988
        2001
        2002
        2013
        2022

  12. I would now be curious as to what those first 3 years had in store for September…the tropics really got active thereafter? 😉

    SAK?

    1. 2001 Before 8/31 – 4 TS, After 8/31 – 11 named storms, 9 hurricanes (4 major hurricanes)

      2002 Before 8/31 – 4 TS, After 8/31 – 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes (2 major hurricanes)

      2013 Before 8/31 – 6 TS, After 8/31 – 8 named storms (1 subtropical), 2 hurricanes (0 major hurricanes)

      2022 Before 8/31 – 3 TS, After 8/31 – TBD

    1. This type of morning always makes me think of these song lyrics…

      “Another summer
      Another vacation is over
      A September morning,
      With the sun and the smell of the clover
      Down by the gate
      We sit and we watch all our friends go by
      And pretend we don’t hear the bell,
      That rings through the summer sky.”

      It’s from the song “Heartbeat” by Wham.

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