Thursday September 1 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)

41 Comments

We are still under the influence of a low pressure circulation to our northeast as we start the month of September, and it will work with a high pressure area building in from the west to send a very dry air mass into the region today on a gusty breeze – a very nice day to open up the first month of meteorological autumn. High pressure settles over the region on Friday with tranquil weather, a cool morning and a warm afternoon, and then a quick temperature drop off at night as we have a clear sky and light wind – the perfect set-up for radiational cooling. After a chilly very early morning on Saturday, we rebound nicely as the high pressure area in control of our weather to start Labor Day Weekend settles to the south. This high will send even warmer and eventually more humid air into the region by Sunday, but at that time another high building out of eastern Canada means there will be a dividing line between the two air masses in the form of a cold front, as the Canadian high builds southward against the retreating high to the south. The frontal boundary may help initiate a few showers and even a thunderstorm in parts of the region on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t expect this activity to be widespread or persist for very long. The front should push far enough south and high pressure from Canada build in enough so that we end up rain-free for the Labor Day holiday itself on Monday, but we may have to deal with a fair amount of cloudiness at times to finish off the long weekend.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point falling to upper 40s. Wind W shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

High pressure builds over the region then to the south with dry weather and a warming trend September 6-8. A frontal boundary should bring the chance of a few showers September 9 before a Canadian air mass brings dry and cooler weather to end the period. Rough surf may be evident along the coastline by the end of the period due to Atlantic tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

41 thoughts on “Thursday September 1 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  10. I hope I have this correct …..

    Boston and Providence both at +4.0F for August

    Hartford, CT at +4.3F

    Worcester at +4.5F

  11. Thank you, TK.

    I’ve noticed VERY few acorns this year. Likely a result of the drought. But, there are noticeably fewer than in 2016, when there was also a prolonged drought.

    I don’t put stock in the myth that numbers of acorns are somehow a harbinger of the kind of winter we’ll be having.

      1. We have a bumper crop of field mice and voles. I won’t put out poison. That endangers all other animals as well. So am not entirely sure what to do.

        And our cameras picked up yet another skunk or maybe one of the three we did have. They are supposed to eat mice and we learned even living under our front stairs that are not bad renters so more power to them

        1. We had a skunk living under our from porch and he was there for years and years. We didn’t bother him and he wouldn’t bother us. It was a mutual relationship. 🙂

          1. Agree. The three abandoned younguns were a concern because they came out quite early evening; and with two dogs and three kids outdoors all day, we worried about running into them

  13. You are going to see a lot of washout forecasts for Sunday afternoon and maybe extended cool and very wet weather into Wednesday because of today’s 12z ECMWF. Its precipiation field to front placement in central NJ makes no sense, there is some sort of reflection going on from a low in iVrginia and I will give my house away if we get its 4-7″ of rain , but watch the model simulation forecasts that are used on the 6pm news tonight.

    Passing shower (likely isolated to at most scattered late Sunday) and generally mixed clouds and sun transition to more sun from Monday into Wednesday.

    1. I agree with this.
      Already saw one news anchor refer to the “rainy holiday weekend” coming up. It was not a meteorologist, but an anchor, who was quickly corrected by the meteorologist.

      1. A lot of App forecasts have switched from the verbatim GFS from to ECMWF so they are going to see rain icons from Sunday to Wednesday.

        1. I guarantee you I’ll see a FB post or get a private message by this evening asking “what happened to the forecast?!” etc. Happens every time. 🙂

          My answer is usually: Models, weather apps, and/or “nothing”. 😉

      2. I also tend to agree with it. When my Weekend Outlook gets published after I get home this evening, it will mention just a chance for a few showers Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon.

    1. Yep. Every year. Signs everywhere.

      Our two streets have been a detour this week. I watched at least 50 percent of the cars barrel up the hill, past the turn left detour sign and then have to turn around. The detour sign was just about in the street and impossible to miss…or so one would think.

    1. After a few lean monsoon seasons, they more than made up for it. That part of the world (and parts of India) have some of the richest soil on the planet but are also the most vulnerable to severe flooding. There’s so much risk there, living and farming.

Comments are closed.