Friday September 2 2022 Forecast (6:44AM)

67 Comments

We have a significant temperature spread at sunrise on this second day of September. A clear sky and light wind set up radiational cooling overnight, with many areas seeing low temperature in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Exceptions: Boston in the upper 50s due to a combo of urban effect and water’s influence, and Cape Cod around 60 due to the ocean water’s modifying effects. This set-up will repeat tonight which will be the coolest night in a while. But between these 2 cool nights come a very pleasant September day today, under a ridge of high pressure with lots of sun, dry air, light wind. After Saturday’s chilly start, the temperature rebound will be significant as high pressure sinks a little bit to the south a return flow of warmer air arrives. But humidity stays low, making for a great late summer day to start the holiday weekend. High pressure sinks further south and a stronger southwesterly air flow will be established on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This set-up brings a stronger breeze but also very warm air and higher humidity. There may be a few pop up showers and thunderstorms ahead of the approaching front late in the day, but these look limited and mostly over interior southern NH to central MA. The cold front will then move across the region during the first half of Monday, based on current timing. This is when we have our greatest chance of showers, in my meteorological opinion. Some of our guidance has suggested a wetter scenario with more widespread rainfall from Monday into Tuesday, but I feel this may be over-done and am going with a more progressive system and a drying trend later Monday onward, with high pressure from eastern Canada being strong enough to accomplish this.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54, warmer in some urban and immediate coastal areas. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible, favoring interior southern NH and central MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

High pressure builds to the south with dry weather and a warm-up September 7-8. Next frontal boundary brings a shower chance September 9 before another area of high pressure moves in for the September 10-11 weekend with more fair weather. Offshore tropical activity may increase surf and ocean swells later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

67 thoughts on “Friday September 2 2022 Forecast (6:44AM)”

  10. Thanks TK.

    WBZ radio anchor used the word “washout” for Labor Day.

    Actually, most of the tv mets have all-day rains as well, even into much of Tuesday.

    3. The ones I watch…JR, Zach and Cindy all have showers Sunday afternoon and Monday. Most…maybe all as I can’t recall..gave amounts in lower tenths. Most seem to have rain…possibly more as it is early….on Tuesday. As with JPD….the more the better.

  12. Just for the record, Josh referred to a “48 hour event” all day Monday into Tuesday. Sometimes I think he goes a bit too far, too far in advance.

  13. I will sell on a 48 hour event happening. I wouldn’t mind seeing a 48 hour snow event this upcoming winter.

    1. I sure remember. Was it two or three weekends in a row. I was attending Katy Gibbs in Boston and it was the only time school was cancelled.

  15. Hi all. Just got back from my every-other-year procedure that is the one preceded by clear liquid diet and drinking an obnoxious amount of liquid that flushes out your system. I’m one of the “lucky” ones who has to get it every 2 years instead of 10. HAHA!

    First report: Good! No polyps, no cancer signs, only some mild ulcerative colitis in the transverse colon. My disease can cause flares in the transverse and more often in the descending colon (especially sigmoid area). I’m still loopy as heck, but my son drove me and we stopped for breakfast on the way back. Ah, food! How can 36 hours without solid food seem like a week? 😉

    So I bring this up because I urge everybody to get screened when your doctor thinks you should. Yeah the prep sucks, but it’s 100% worth it to prevent something a lot worse than what you go through to have this procedure done. 🙂 Anyway, done for another 2 years!

    My commentary on the TV folks: You’ll get a variety of ideas on the coming weather based on what guidance a certain forecaster may be leaning toward. I remain of the opinion that this will be “less” rather than “more”. Josh is excellent. I think his reference to a 48 hour event doesn’t mean he thinks it will rain for 48 hours. What he means is that we’ll be in a 2-day period where we’ll be vulnerable to showers / unsettled weather, from about Sunday evening to Tuesday evening. But it’s a forecast – not set in stone. I think we’ll have less than a 48-hour window. That’s my interpretation as the moment. I saw a couple hints on guidance that don’t stand out so easily that they are about to make an adjustment toward a drier scenario. We’ll see…

    In the mean time, we have 2 guaranteed splendid days today and tomorrow, and at least a great summery start to Sunday! 🙂

    Enjoy your day. I’m going to be home recovering from my sedative high.. haha!

    1. Thank for taking the time to remind people of this important screening.

      I had my last screening a few months ago. I woke up and the nurse asked me if I could get dressed. I felt fine and was getting dressed when the fire alarm went off and there was a loud announcement of something like “Code Red in the MRI Room!” The nurse came flying back in. She said that she didn’t know what was going on, but if the alarm didn’t stop in a few minutes she would help me down the stairs since the elevators don’t work when the alarm is sounding. Luckily, the excitement ended about a minute later.

      1. Omg. Yikes. Ugh. And many more comments that I just muttered. It’s a difficult procedure to forget but I’m sure this one is burned into your memory

      1. I had five this time which was Awesome. But it’s taken me from January (5) till now to get an appointment.

        1. The office for my doctor is pretty aggressive with the appointments. A few days after my recent procedure, I got an email confirming an appointment for the next one in 2032. I’ll have to keep that in mind when planning other things 10 years in advance!

          1. I think a lot had to do with staffing. But the one I’ve seen for years no longer has staff answer phone and it can be days before my call is returned. They are booking 10-12 months out. And he’s dept head at one if the major hospitals

  16. Excellent. Excellent. Excellent. On your results.

    I was in the every three months club for three years. The up side of that is you get the prep down really well and it becomes standard. The even more up side was that I got to know the nursing staff very well and was actually sorry because I’d mis them when I was told I can switch to two,years.

    Thank you for your excellent comments re the upcoming system. It was the impression I had. But darned if I can recall who Josh is with. I rarely watch on TV as I have said. The ones I follow on twitter tend to update more often and I like that.

  17. CFS Weekly…
    Week 1 Precip: Below normal.
    Week 2 Precip: Below normal.
    Week 3 Precip: Below normal.
    Week 4 Precip: Below normal.
    Week 5 Precip: Below normal.

    CFS Monthly…
    September Precip: Below normal.
    October Precip: Below normal.
    November Precip: Below normal.
    December Precip: Near normal.
    January Precip: Below normal.
    February Precip: Below normal.

    See a trend here? 😉

    1. Oh yes, FWIW, the CanSIPS Montly basically has below normal precipitation through next August with only 1 month (January) showing near to above on the most recent run.

  19. Based on that CFS Monthly that TK posted, I guess it appears that December will be our best shot of precipitation. Hopefully it will be cold enough for snow, just in time for the Christmas season for a change.

    I guess also it is already safe to assume below normal snowfall for the upcoming winter? At least our expectations won’t be high. 🙁

    Are those monthlies historically accurate?

    1. Keep in mind though that these projections are just that. And things can turn on a dime, even if we don’t see hints of it now.

      One or two tropicals, former tropicals, a couple days with a southerly jet stream and tropical moisture in just the right place. One or two early coastal storms (even if followed by a quiet winter). Any of that, or countless other things can happen to throw that preliminary outlook off. It’s just the nature of weather. 🙂

      But, based on what I know at this moment, dry is the operative word for now.

    2. You can have above normal snowfall with below normal precipitation. Quite easily, in fact.

      Best example:
      February, 1978 – Boston’s precip total of 2.78″ was below normal, while the snowfall of 27.2″ was well above normal.

      1. That’s the example I’ve used before.

        Another sometimes assumed correlation is big snow pack means spring flooding. Not always there either. 2015: record snow from end January to beginning March. Nearly all the snow sublimated or melted gradually and evaporated in the cold/dry remainder of March we had. No flooding.

    3. I forgot to answer your other question. I can’t claim to be an expert on how well those models verify, but I can tell you that the CFS is “ok”. It’s not super-reliable. I’m not familiar enough with CanSIPS to really say. I tend to lack in my verifying of those things. 🙂

  21. Today’s 12z ECMWF Sun-Wed is 1-3″ down from 4-7.”

    Watch that trend to continue and even if it doesn’t in modeology focus shower chances on later Sunday and mid to late Monday afternoon. I write this beacuse I don’t want people cancelling Sunday and Monday plans based on app foreccasts.

    1. I’m not cancelling any Sunday or Monday plans. Of course my Monday plans involve working and not much outside, but just the same, my Sunday ones do include a lot of outside time in the afternoon & evening.

    2. Noting the GFS & GEM are slower-arriving and shorter-duration precip window. They’re not done.

  22. 18z NAM basically eliminates the shower chance for Sunday now, at least through the evening with the exception of a few showers / storms some interior areas, low coverage. This is the 12km version. I’m waiting on the 3km version.

  23. The 18z 3km NAM has backed off on the coverage of showers & storms for Sunday PM to basically isolated at best.

    The 18z 12km NAM has more widespread showers around for Monday but overall, not impressive-looking, and I don’t think we’re done seeing a trend toward a drier forecast from this model.

    Stay tuned…

    1. That quick change to near to below normal temps & very low dew points can really chill ya down. That’s probably why.

      I was cold this morning but that’s because I had just consumed 128 ounces of 40 degree liquid in a matter of hours. 😉

      1. I agree with TK. Quick changes can not only chill us but for me it sometimes feels good to just throw on a sweatshirt

  25. What do you think of the idea of an internet radio station with the most random 20,000 song playlist and an occasional local weather forecast for the WHW forecast area?

    The station, in theory, actually already exists, but its not operating at the moment.

    1. With a comment area? And would we have to leave it on constantly in order to hear whw? Or does this blog exist as well? In that event works for me so others are exposed

      1. That would be a separate entity to itself most likely. This place would still exist in a form that questions / comments would be there. The whole idea of the internet radio thing has been in my head for quite a while. I just had a little more time to think about it today while I was sitting home recovering. 😉

  27. Jacob continues his “washout” commentary. He has on/off rain from Monday morning through very early Wednesday morning.

    I would say though more “on” than “off”. 😉

    JR has occasional rain from Monday into Tuesday afternoon. Most rain in NNE, least on the Cape. Boston “in between” with frequent showers.

    3. I’m going to go with isolated showers Sunday night (late), and scattered showers early Monday before the system fails over our area and reconstitutes to our southwest to have one more shot at impact on Tuesday, possibly.

        1. We need it big time. In a way if we got the best slug on Tuesday that would be a bonus, leaving most of the weekend rain-free but still giving us some benefit before the system leaves the area.

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