Saturday September 3 2022 Forecast (8:35AM)

55 Comments

There’s been a lot of media chatter about a good portion of Labor Day Weekend’s weather going bad, but this is not really going to be the case. Two out of the 3 days are going to be wonderful late summer days, and the final one (Labor Day itself) will become somewhat unsettled. This will take place as high pressure over us today drifts to the south Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A weak warm front moves across the region today / tonight but other than some high clouds filtering the sun at times today, the only other evidence of this front will be a wind shift to the southwest and increase in humidity, happening for most of us tonight, so not noticeable until Sunday, which will be a more summer-feeling day. Isolated thunderstorms that were in the forecast earlier are not really going to have much of a chance to pop up until later in the day and then most likely over interior higher elevations, as the air will be too stable to get them in most areas. So it will be a really nice summer day for the most part. The cold front finally moves into and across the region Sunday night and early Monday when the shower chance will increase. As the front initially goes by it may dry out just enough so that we see only limited shower chances during a good portion of Monday, but finally later in the day or especially at night we should see a more widespread batch of showers / rain arriving as moisture from the southwest gets involved and a wave of low pressure forms on the frontal boundary. The wildcard is how quickly this wet weather exits the region on Tuesday. Guidance is spread between an all-day rainfall and an early-day rainfall followed by drying conditions. I’m leaning toward the latter – shorter-duration rain and quicker arrival of dry. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday with dry weather expected.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and pop-up clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms in the evening, favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Variably cloudy with scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog forming late night. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early morning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Clearing afternoon. Areas of fog early. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+ morning, 50s afternoon. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

High pressure shifts to the south with fair weather and a warm-up mid to later portion of next week. No longer thinking frontal boundary is in the area on September 9 but waits until later in the period to arrive with some great late summer weather in the forecast up until an end-of-period shower chance. Still have to monitor for larger swells and surf along the coast due to offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

55 thoughts on “Saturday September 3 2022 Forecast (8:35AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    “Somewhat” unsettled? You do have an interesting sense of humor. 😉

    The tv mets have 2”+ rains from Boston northward, less towards the Cape though.

    Murphy’s Law AT WORK on Labor Day. Rather ironic I suppose. Oh well. 🙁

    1. Humor? The forecast is actually serious. haha! So basically you buy their forecast and toss mine. Fair enough. 🙂
      We’ll see how it works out, won’t we? I think most of that rain is going to fall Monday night, long after people’s Labor Day Weekend leisure plans are largely finished and they are home, unpacking or sleeping. 😉 As I said, we’ll see how it works out…

    2. P.S. .. nearly all of the futurecast runs you saw with precip on them were using the ECMWF model or a particular run of the GFS (which was wetter). You saw 3 meteorologists on the blog yesterday agree that this forecast is likely going to be too high. Will we be right? Time will tell, but with science, I’m telling you that just seeing numbers and buying them outright is not generally going to take you to good places much of the time. 🙂

      I know people who have already cancelled Sunday beach plans based on thunderstorms on their apps. They won’t like it when they are sitting home Sunday when it’s in the 80s, rain-free, and a beautiful sun/cloud mix tomorrow afternoon. 🙂 But hey, that’s on them!

      1. The many local Mets I follow have said the same. My girls use weather apps….ya I know. But none have predicted Sunday as a washout. The saddest part will be, if it doesn’t turn out to be a wash, that anyone cancelling plans will blame the Mets rather than take responsibility for not taking time to listen to those in the know.

        1. This is very true. None of us are washing Sunday out, even the ones I don’t agree with as much about Monday. 🙂

      2. Even the pessimistic tv mets are going for a nice day tomorrow for the most part so I don’t get the total reliance on the apps either. I rarely rely on my phone for even a very short term forecast.

        As for my remarks above I was just messing with you more than anything. I hope yours works out but unfortunately, most of the general public do not follow this blog and are probably canceling Monday plans left and right. We will see. 🙂

        1. Monday is largely a travel day anyway, so the number of plans to be impacted would be far fewer than today or tomorrow.

    1. I think we do see a few isolated to scattered showers/storms by end-of-day tomorrow, mostly outside WHW area. And I think Monday PM / Tuesday AM is prime time for most likely widespread wet weather. So I definitely agree with Zack.

        1. Not familiar with her. I did watch the forecast though, and it was definitely straight model to screen “futurecast” and rainfall amounts. Not sure if that was GFS or their in-house. It wasn’t ECMWF which is much wetter. So I can see where the term washout came from. I think we end up with a lot of rain-free hours Monday – though definitely not a “nice” day compared to the 2 that precede it. Bottom line: Today and tomorrow are your best outdoor days for the holiday weekend. Even without much rain falling from the sky, Monday is going to be much cloudier and much cooler. This should benefit most.

          I have a little term for the highways on Labor Day – the “summer’s end rush”. The highways on that afternoon and evening are often as heavy as a non-holiday rush hour, everybody coming back from their weekend destinations. If anything, wet weather will slow that traffic down more than impacting anyone’s outdoor plans. Not a bad trade-off though for the 2 days we’re about to have. So now we just have to hope for some beneficial rain out of that system. Fingers crossed.

          1. Whoever she is, she seems new and I always take that into account. It is just the fair thing to do ….my opinion only. I will never fault a meteorologist….surely not any we have in our area. I have no patience for it. ..especially a met criticizing another met. That might come as a surprise to some 🙂 🙂 😉

  7. Whatever rain does occur Monday into Tuesday “should” clean up the next Drought Monitor map come Thursday. Hopefully less color tones.

    1. This is not all that likely. Look at the last update. The torrential rainfall to the south of Boston knocked a strip down from extreme to severe, and one small area around Plymouth down to moderate. That’s actually rebuilding now with our dry stretch. At most, we’d see something similar in another location – at most – assuming a model like ECMWF is even close to correct.

      We’ll still be firmly in drought after this upcoming unsettled event.

  8. 12z NAMs are mostly in. Now I am keeping in mind that the main part of the event I am looking at is still outside the NAM’s best range, but at the moment the rainfall in a lot of the WHW area is based on a break-away piece of moisture to come through here Monday PM, with the rest of the bulk rainfall skirting our southern areas and then being pushed off to the south early Tuesday. This is tricky. If that first area fails (over-forecast by guidance now and doesn’t produce nearly as much as indicated, and this is very very possible) then this ends up being a fairly light rainfall event for most of the region.

    3km NAM finished coming in while I was typing that, and it only goes to 60 hours of course, but it pretty much supports the same overall idea through 60 as the 12 km version of the model has. It also have more in the way of thunderstorms over some areas late Sunday adding to its rainfall total, which then looks higher than it probably will be because the guidance tends to over-do the coverage of the max rainfall areas. Ugh, that first area … how many times have we seen a forecast for a big slug of rain to come in only to have it actually be a busted up area of light rain with embedded heavier showers? In case you don’t remember, I’ll answer for you. Many times. I don’t trust it. I’m going to continue to go with my idea above and monitor, but I’m just not jumping on the big rain train right now. Can’t do it.

  9. At the risk of looking at “too much info”, the FV3 guidance paints a slightly different picture. It has some decent rainfall totals, but largely due to convection and mainly focused right in the I-95 belt during the first half of Monday. This is a different axis and timing compared to other guidance. So, the familiar song plays again. Closing in on an event and not a whole lot of model agreement. Nothing new these days. 🙂

    When I see stuff like this, I just stay confident in my discussion and forecast and then re-evaluate for the next update, which I will do tomorrow morning. 🙂

    I’m going to be out and about most of the next 12 hours, so I’ll be limited checking in here. Have a great and safe weekend whatever your plans are!

  10. Not a betting man, but if I went to Las Vegas and I could place a bet on TK versus the others for a SNE forecast, I’d most definitely go with TK. For years I’ve told others about TK’s forecasts. Sure, on occasion, they don’t pan out. But, more often than that – and sometimes going against the grain, mind you – they’ve turned out to be the most accurate.

    2. I typically just look here each morning and have for years. But then TK and the others are on the same page with rare exception.

  12. There’s a really good chance that parts of the Cape and Islands (especially the Outer Cape and Nantucket) see little to no rainfall before sunset Monday.

  13. As I noted earlier this summer, it has been relatively cool in parts of far Eastern Europe, including most of Ukraine and also the Moscow region, the Urals, and parts of Siberia. The well below normal temperatures continue in Moscow (mid 50s and rainy) and the foreseeable future. You can see how cool it is by the clothes and jackets people are wearing at Gorbachev’s low-key funeral. https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1566115881754705924

      1. Pete is my favorite presenter in the Boston TV market. J.R. & Dave Epstein are right there as well. I like presentations that are clear and contain a little humor (Pete mostly for the humor, JR for some, Dave is more straightforward but tosses in the info tidbits very smoothly). Don’t put the listener / viewer to sleep, but don’t overwhelm them with info either. It’s a balance and it can be hard to find. These guys do it best, IMO. 🙂

        In the past, top notch presenters for me were Harvey, Dickie, Mark Rosenthal, Barry Burbank, even Bruce Schwoegler. I’m sure I’m forgetting a few in there. Don Kent and Bob Copeland, of course legends.

        Oops I knew I’d remember another fave presenter: Tim Kelley. Another one who would infuse education in the TV forecast, but not enough to overwhelm.

        1. I thin AJ does an excellent job of presenting, adding info and educational tidbits. Just my humble opinion. 🙂

          1. Yes, he’s excellent. And I know I’ve mentioned I’ve worked with AJ in the past. Funny guy too.

            1. He is actually becoming on of my favorites of all
              the Boston Mets. He has just evolved as he has received more air time.

              Let’s face it, we are truly blessed to have some of the very best in the business right here in our own city!!!

        2. Pete is also a favorite person. He is wonderfully kind and it was a joy to work with him. I’d say the same for JR. I am truly enjoying Dave Epstein.

          I absolutely agree on the others. I put Eric up there close to Pete and JR for knowledge. He is a bit full of himself and that leaves a bad taste. I absolutely get why he can be snarky. But the others face the same backlash and rise above it. As you know, he is not on my good list at the moment but I know that too will change. 😉

          We are truly blessed to have such exceptional meteorologists all in one area

    1. Arghhhhhh…. Sorry. Sure don’t want to spoil anyones plans but we need rain. And I agree with you that a day or two of fairly significant rain followed by the dry will not make much of a dent of any in the drought.

    2. Give me 1/2 to 1 inch and I would be happy with this event.
      Please do NOT give me a tenth or two. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  18. I cannot believe what I am seeing from the NY Yankees. They had a 15.5 game lead. Well on their way to a 100 plus win season; perhaps even 110 plus. Now, they’ll hard-pressed to win 95. The lead is down to 5, they’re losing again to the Rays this evening (lead would go to 4). This sort of thing did not happen to the Yankees when I was growing up. Nor did it happen during the Jeter era. Their deadline trades were atrociously bad. Their manager stinks. And, frankly, they look lost.

    2. I don’t doubt it. The link is below. I think she was saying 0.75-1.50 across the area with higher amounts depending on where there are heavier pockets rather than just showers

      She seems to be saying a mostly rainy Monday.

      I don’t know who Jaisol is

      https://whdh.com/weather/

          1. I just don’t watch weather on tv to know them. I must say that I learn much more about them following them on Twitter

          2. I think it’s a combo of a couple things Philip. The communication style is different now. When it’s learned, it’s taught differently. The younger people (not just mets) coming into the business are being sent in with a different approach to delivery. Yes, some of it is natural, but some of it isn’t, it’s “I gotta do it this way because that’s what they said we have to do.”

            Also, just inexperience. Even Pete Bouchard and Harvey Leonard had to deliver their first forecasts on air with no experience and I bet they sounded a lot different than they did years later. So that takes time too.

            Yes you can have a preference for one over another, and believe me, I do too. It’s natural to have those. But it’s also important to keep in mind the difference that is going to be there between a “newbie” and a “seasoned veteran”. Give the younger ones time to find themselves and most of them will do it. 🙂

  21. GEM & GFS are backing down on rain amounts. No surprise. Next up: ECMWF. Might take a couple more runs.

  22. ECMWF is now the outlier with the widespread heavier amounts. All other guidance is more in the ballpark of now I think it will play out.

    New weather post…

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