Sunday September 4 2022 Forecast (7:44AM)

44 Comments

Continuing to fine-tune the details of the unsettled portion of our Labor Day Weekend, and after a beautiful Saturday, we’ll have another generally beautiful day today, just warmer and a little more humid than yesterday. Exception: by late in the day some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can pop up to the west of the I-95 belt, and much of this will wait until near or even after sunset to start showing up, as it is more dynamically driven than diurnally driven as a weak cold front moves through from north to south. Even so, the diurnal heating having played some role, being absent in the later evening will allow the initial activity to diminish. It will be during Monday morning that a wave will be forming and moving our way along the slow-moving front, largely having passed by the region at that point, so we’ll end up with a cooler, but still humid day on Monday with increasing coverage of showers and embedded heavier rain. My biggest tweak on this update is to move the timing of the most numerous showers up from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday to a midday to mid evening Monday, sealing the deal that Monday is far less favorable for any outdoor activities than the 2 days that preceded it. However, many standard long weekends largely leave Monday as a day to have a nice breakfast then drive home from wherever the destination was. So the rainfall will have more impact on the “holiday commute home” than anything else. Any rain we do get is obviously still much-needed with our ongoing and continuing drought. Sadly, many models and some media maps still paint pictures of more widespread 1-inch-or-greater rainfall amounts than I think we will ultimately see across the region, but we will see, and we’ll take whatever we can get. Improvement is now expected on Tuesday as the wave of low pressure exits early and pulls the frontal boundary further south. High pressure then builds in with great weather for the middle of the coming week – mild and dry Wednesday with a breeze with the high center still to the northwest, less wind and a bit warmer Thursday as the high shifts over the region.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day isolated showers and thunderstorms possible west of I-95. Highs 81-88, a little cooler along the South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms in the evening, favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Variably cloudy with scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog forming late night. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers becoming numerous by midday on with embedded heavier downpours. Areas of fog, especially early in the day. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely evening, diminishing overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising into 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High pressure shifts to the south with fair weather and temperatures warming to above normal late week into if not through the weekend. Current expecting timing brings the next trough and frontal boundary in early the following week with a chance of showers at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of the weather in our region. Probably one shot of briefly unsettled weather with a frontal boundary but not really possible to time it this far in advance.

44 thoughts on “Sunday September 4 2022 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  6. Thanks, TK. I noticed the local Mets who already hadn’t were also adding more rain tomorrow. Sure seems like it will be a period of beneficial showers. Fingers crossed.

    1. I still think a lot of areas are going to come away with under 1 inch, but I’m hoping my thought is not correct on that one. We’ll take whatever we can get though. 🙂 Still a long way to go…

      I was at the local pond yesterday and it is at its lowest point yet, and equal to 2016’s low.

      1. The young lady’s forecast (the one whose name some of us didn’t recognize) of some areas receiving 0.76-1.50 may not be far off. We have had two rain blasts lately after a period of missing most. One was 1.20 and another 1.90 (IIRC). There was some minimal improvement in lawns but our water areas are back to mud.

  7. Sarah has widespread 1-3” with rain continuing into Tuesday with no clearing until Wednesday. She did qualify however that the heaviest could shift either north or south.

    The model she showed had Boston in its crosshairs at 2.3” fwiw.

    1. You also. It is a beauty. I love when I can open windows and sliders as soon as I wake up. A bit more humid but it is summer.

      1. 90 is still always on the table in September much like it can still snow in March. We are not even close to being done with summer just yet AFAIC.

        The only “fall” element is the morning darkness now starts to take over in earnest this month. 🙁

  9. This is even is due to start sometime tomorrow, yet there is significant divergence of Qpf amounts across models. When this happens, go with TK, even though I hope he is wrong this time around.

    1. I always go here first. For these two days, TK and the Mets are on the same page. Although that isn’t unusual.

  10. NAMs are a bit wetter on their 12z runs, which is somewhat encouraging, since they are in the range that are best now.
    Not holding my breath though as some of the other short range guidance, while having heavy showers, is far lower on coverage of beneficial rainfall. Still some tweaks to go, but definitely a bit better signs from the NAM at this point.

    1. Sarah said the same thing. It isn’t an easy forecast for you all. Most ..perhaps all…are using the word potential very liberally. Sarah used this graphic https://imgur.com/a/2fYLoO6 and Kelly Ann this https://imgur.com/a/gUH1u2y along with the comment that the potential of training is possible

      As is the case with snow, people will see 1-3 and translate it to 3 everywhere. And they will completely miss the word potetential or the term low confidence. Not folks here and likely not the majority. Just the folks who like to complain on social media.

      1. Ah yes, the “6-12 inches so we’re getting a foot!” mentality. I know it all too well. 😉 And I agree. Keeping fingers crossed for a nice coverage beneficial rain, proving my thoughts above more wrong than right. I’m still a little skeptical but optimistic just the same.

        Medium / longer term pattern still looks dry, but any benefit we can get, we will take.

  11. Meanwhile the high res GFS (FV3) leaves some areas of eastern MA completely dry, while a few splotches of 1+ inch rainfall occur. So even now, more model disagreement with 24 hours to go before the “main event” portion. Nothing new there. 😉

  13. FWIW, the latest SREF has24 hour prob > 1.0 in very very low across the area, but does have 24 hour 70%+ chance of > 0.5 inch. Kind of supporting TK’s thinking. We shall see and we shall hope that there is more rain.

  15. Beautiful day today. Hard to believe there is still such wide divergence on tomorrow’s rain. Do you think there will be a more unified view tonight? Realize we need the rain but also would like some clear weather tomorrow to tackle some jobs around the house.

    1. If I saw this earlier I’d have said “it wouldn’t surprise me if we still have some wide model divergence tonight. Well, I’m not surprised. 😉

      1. Again though, most people don’t have outdoor plans tomorrow (the vast majority are yesterday and today) and we NEED rain, badly, so this is a good thing! 🙂 Assuming it’s actually correct. I still have reservations that we get that much widespread rainfall over 1 inch, nevermind 2 inches.

  18. Another perfect beach ⛱️ day down here’s at the south coast of Rhode Island Narragansett. Water temperature about 76°. If we get a lot of sun from midweek this week and no up welling Water temperature Hopefully will be maintained.

    1. And to think I knew people who cancelled their beach days today thanks to weather apps. 😉

      I’m heading up to Hampton myself for a late afternoon / evening visit. 🙂

  19. After a review of the 12z guidance – forecast above stands unchanged for the time being.

    The ECMWF is in the time-out chair. I don’t actually care what it has to say right now. 😉

    1. There will still be sticky days for awhile occasionally until early/mid-October or so. Summer warmth and humidity takes forever to totally leave.

  23. Channel 5 framed the rain nicely with a widespread potential for 1”-2” but acknowledging that not everyone will reach the 1” mark.

    1. Like TK they have all been careful with wording. I hope you had time to get most if not all of your outdoor tasks done today

  24. I really like Jacob Wycoff. But I had to laugh tonight when he said something like “The kids may be able to get on the bus tomorrow without having to dodge any raindrops.”

    1. Ha!! I’ll have to watch.

      As always he brought a memory to me. My dad always told us to run between the raindrops. Thanks SClarke or maybe thanks to Jacob.

      May I assume he doesn’t have kids in school,

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