The Week Ahead

76 Comments

9:27PM

The question remains: Are we getting a reward for last winter, or are we setting ourselves up for payback sometime later? Either or neither, the overall weather pattern for southern New England will continue to be more like late Spring for the upcoming week, and probably beyond. The only real disturbance of any consequence will be passing through the region on Tuesday with some rain shower activity, otherwise mainly dry weather and above to much above normal temperatures will dominate. It even appears, based on reliable guidance, that a very warm and dry pattern will continue into the beginning of next week. We will likely see some 70 degree temperatures being reached either early in the week or toward next week in parts of the region. Will there be an 80 degree reading somewhere? I don’t see it for this week, and I normally do not talk about anything in detail beyond 7 days, but there are some signs that 80 could be approached or reached around March 21, which would make it feel like the first day of summer around the first full day of Spring. The Vernal Equinox occurs on Tuesday March 20 at 1:14AM. But it’s plain to see that the weather is not waiting until then.

A couple of negative aspects of the warm/dry pattern: Lowering water supply which can set up a summer drought if the dry pattern should continue, and of more immediate concern, drying of topsoil is accelerating as the sun angle increases. This increases the risk of brush fires, and some have already been occurring during this week. Look for the fire danger to remain high for at least a couple more weeks. The lack of leaves allows the sun to reach more of the ground, drying it out. This, along with fallen leaves from last season and broken branches and trees from recent storms (Irene, October snow, February 25 wind storm), allows fires to spread more easily. Use care if outside with anything that can ignite fires!

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to upper 30s coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. High 67-72, except cooler in coastal areas where wind passes over water first. Wind WSW around 10 MPH.

MONDAY  NIGHT: Clouding over from west to east. A few rain showers possible very late. Low 50-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers morning, ending west to east during midday then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny AM. Sun/cloud mix PM. Low 45. High 62.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 60 (except 50 coast).

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 67.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 71.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

76 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. It is remarkable how quickly the sun can dry out the topsoil and brush at this time of year. You can have brush fires within a day or 2 after it rains.

  3. As warm as this spring is now likely going to be, I wouldn’t be surprised though if this summer might not be all that consistently “hot” as one might expect. We will see.

    Also, could A/C’s be already humming by month’s end, if not sooner?

  4. Thanks TK.
    Philip I saw Brett Anderson’s blog and the long range Euro shows above normal temperatures for the spring and typical summer weather. I hope the AC’s don’t start humming for a few more months.

  5. It is nice to know that I am not the only one here on this blog enjoys the guilty pleasure of watching old blizzard forecasts via You Tube. My favorite is Barry’s midday forecast on 3/31/97 of the April Fools’ storm. 🙂

    Technically, Barry greatly underestimated the amount for Boston, but I will certainly give him a pass on that one…”nowcasting” at its best. 😉

    1. T)at was the first storm were it was possible to read forecasts on the web. I remember every time I checked, the amounts had been increased, and by the afternoon of the day before, I knew there was little chance I would be able to get to work the next day. This was important to know, as at the time, I worked in a lab. The only people who did make it to work that day, arrived on cross country skis, and this was in East Cambridge.

      1. I didn’t get onto the web at home until late 2000. I did use a computer at work since the mid-1990s. We have come so far in the past 10-15 years.

  6. Anybody know what the total snow fall for Worcester was, for winter seasons of 1994-1995, 2001-2002. I tried to find it on line but could not find it for either year. I am curious to see how it compares to this year. from memory I feel 1994-1995 was the least. But don’t have any stats to back it up.

  7. It was nice having a rare April snow day and knowing that school was going to be cancelled I was able to stay up late and watching a thrilling National Championship game between Arizona and Kentucky which Arizona won in overtime. If Arizona did not win that game Kentucky would have won 3 straight National Championships. Kentucky is my pick this year to win the National Championship.

        1. Harvard might have a decent shot at winning a couple games. I believe their bracket isn’t particularly difficult.

          Also I am very surprised that they are a 12th seed. Good for them! 🙂

  8. I’m wondering if folks would be willing to be more specific on the sea breezes in their forecasts. In particular if sea breezes will impact downtown Boston, and how many miles inland they will penetrate.

    Thanks!

    1. I can try to be specific, though it’s usually best to really make that a one-day-ahead kind of forecast, due to the uncertainty of wind forecasting on a small scale. Tomorrow for example I tried to indicate that land areas such as Winthrop and Nahant, that have water between them and the mainland, can run a little cooler because of the wind passing over the water.

      1. Winthrop is very interesting. I lived there for 8 years before moving to Hingham. Lived about 300 yards from Winthrop Beach. When winds blew off the Atlantic temps could be 10 degrees or cooler than just two miles inland at Orient Heights in East Boston. When winds came out of the south or southwest the effect wasn’t as great as the distance the wind traveled over water was minor compared to anything from the NNE to SSE. That and the water temps in the harbor itself probably ran a few degrees warmer than Mass Bay. We had a back deck that faced west and even on days with a seabreeze hanging out on the deck wasn’t as bad as it could have been.

    1. Thanks for looking into that for me, John. I did some research myself in the meantime, and from what I’ve read it’s a crap shoot as to whether or not the plant will actually repel mosquitoes. A lot depends on size and location and how strong an odor of citronella oil the plant will produce. I’m going take chance anyways and just buy two, without any high expectations. Thanks, again 🙂

  10. I have a question, since we haven’t had snow in March since 2009 when does it not be an anomally? Just curious bc I think it’s Just a continuation of the norm, it’s like saying that it can snow in April and does but we then will have 15yrs of 0 snowfall in April hence its for sure an anomally when it does snow in April, right? This is how I c it, have a great day everyone 🙂

  11. John, I have a lawn question for you. I plan on raking up the yard this weekend but I am not sure what steps to take after that. I have some bare spots that I need to plant some grass seed. I know I should apply, lime and a starter fertilizer just not sure which order to do everything in. Any suggestions would be helpful.

    1. Coastal, I was thinking the same, but was concerned that it might be too early in the season. How does that work, John? Is there a point where it’s too early to rake the grass, or does that even matter? I will be clearing the leaf mulch off my garden beds, since the tulips are up a couple of inches now. By the way John those leaves that I thought were Iris’, in fact are. Amazing they’re up this early! and they’re starting to look much healthier. Plants are very confused this spring 🙂

    2. Rake now and get all the dead stuff up as well as twigs and trash. First week in April lay down some lime and your fertilizer. Step four system works. For small bare spots see the reply to vicki in the new garden section. Put your stuff down before rain.

      1. I wouldn’t rake aggresivly as u will take away good stuff esp in shady areas, a light raking would be beneficial, soil temps are 50 degrees last I checked and that’s perfect for your 1st fert/crabgrass reducer, everything is pushed forward about 11 to 12 days. 🙂

          1. Alotta people like to just go out and do a heavy raking and end up taking away good nutrients and actual good turf, have a great day John 🙂

  12. This is the earliest my crocisis have come up. They look great and the trees should be budding out with this mild weather expected. I like seeing things comeback to life after the winter or in this the case the winter that wasn’t.
    I think there will be more excitment with the NCAA tournament than in the weather world this week. I don’t see a mid major making the Final Four this year but two mid majors I think could win a few games Murray State and Witchita State.

  13. wonderful day outside and i have school I wonder if my teachers will be light with the homwork.

  14. well spring is weather is here.
    I kind of feel good about it because it means we are closer to summer weather and another part of me says i want one more ski day. Plants are poking through the garden and yesterday i saw buds on the trees. The ducks are back even though there is almost no water. Several marsh birds are back that usually come back in mid april!
    Hay maybe my parents could open the pool early this year.:) The frogs ,snakes ,turtles and river otters have not showed up yet .Of course we could not start out with butterflies, ladybugs or dragonflies. The mosquitos are back:(

  15. looking at some of the models and some are hinting at that 80 degree reach that topkatt is saying.
    today sunny with highs in the low 70s
    tonight becoming cloudy lows in the mid 40s
    tuesday first round of showers for the morning afternoon breaks in the clouds with peaking sun highs in the upper 60s
    tuesday night second round of showers with thunderstorms also being possible in the early evening
    wednesday and wednesday night mostly to partly cloudy chance of a shower highs in the upper 50s to low 60s lows in the mid 30s
    thursday sunny highs in the upper 50s
    thursday night partly cloudy lows in the upper 30s
    fridaythrough friday night partly sunny highs in the mid 60s then becoming partly cloudy lows in the mid 40s
    saturday through sunday mostly sunny highs in the mid to upper 60s lows in the mid 40s

  16. I hear u matt on wanting one more ski day. I didnt get out as much this year as I usually do. Trying to decide whether or not to use my free ticket to bretton woods this week or dust off the golf clubs and hit the range. I’m thinking if the warm temps extend that far north, there wont be too much snow left to ski on!

  17. I think I am going to be dusting off those golf clubs because looking at the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks this way above average temperature regime is not going to be leaving us anytime soon.

    1. husband is heading to the driving range tonight. Last I heard he’s taking our 4 year old grandson with him – time to get him started with a little more seriousness 🙂

      1. I wish I started playing golf when I was that age. So many life lessons to learn. The range was packed tonight, looks like everyone else had the same idea. I have a confession, I never actually put my clubs away for the winter… 😮

  18. Beauty today. Just took a walk and the sun felt “warm” to me for the first time…like if I was out all day I’d get some sort of tan. 🙂 Hope you all get a chance to get out if you are working like I am!

    1. I work at home so took my computer out to the deck for about an hour until the chair became uncomfortable. Windows are open and I’m going to prop my feet up for a work break in the sun in a bit. I’ve been listening to the birds and a few young neighborhood kids (including my grandson) and all the wonderful noises of spring!

  21. Tim Kelley NECN ‏ @SurfSkiWxMan
    New Record @bhobservatory 68 breaks record of 67 March 12 1977. Did we not get a foot of snow May 10 1977 🙂

    Would it be perfect end to this winter if this happened again!

    1. I think it was May 1978 Coastal but not positive. We bought our house in June 1979 and there was still damage to the trees so thought it had only been one year. I won’t wish for it that late since it really is destructive at that time of year. Even the March 29, 1984, storm damaged the trees – much like our storm last October. 28 years ago tomorrow we had about 10 inches of snow west of Boston.

  22. I don’t see any winter weather and that accumulating snow thats parts of SNE saw Friday night into Saturday morning maybe the last we see until next winter. There are some 70 degree readings in parts of SNE at this hour. I saw the record high in Hartford, CT has been tied at 69 degrees and I would not be surprised if that falls.

    1. Nice, gentle one going here…..cooling temps ever so slightly to a comfortable 65F. I can’t believe I am writing this on March 12th !!!!

  27. wow–what a day.

    we’ve taken plenty of winter beatings and crappy springs. we deserve a season like this.

  28. Logan has hit 71F, to I believe break the record for the date.

    I think it might be fun watching the warmth west of us later in the week. Maybe 80s or higher….and once the pattern allows the warmth to return to New England very early next week, who knows where the readings could go locally ?

      1. Scott, what do you see there that makes you say that? With the position of that High and clockwise winds around a high, wouldn’t there likely be a more westerly off-shore wind?

        1. Yes but the winds will be light, so that can easily allow colder air from the ocean to sneak its way in here. This is what happened today.

          1. I see what you are saying. High is in a similar position today. Winds are W and SW at Worcester and Bradley but have turned SE at Boston creating the sea breeze.

    2. Normally, I’d say there’d probably be changes by then, but in this warm pattern this year, a lot of the outlooks, even long range, have held true.

      Btwn today and March 21st, the sun angle will climb another 3.6 degrees higher in the sky.

      Those 500 mb heights are crazy for March. 582 across most of New England, usually in the summer, the heights don’t get a lot higher than that.

      The warm air under that projection would be gathering nicely to our west. Combine a west-southwest push of warm air into our region, dry ground, strong sun and if that comes true, I’d think the temps may not be stopping at 80F.

  30. 74 degrees at Bradley Apt shatters the old record of 69. Interestingly, the NWS says the “Wind Chill” is 76 when you click on the “3 day history” of hourly reports. I kid you not….74 with a wind chill of 76. Good one!

  31. I was trying to sit outside. When I saw mosquitoes are swarming, I am understating. I have a mosquito zapper and all I was doing was zapping them. If you do not have one, Ocean State Joblot – $5.00 – looks like a tennis racket and is GREAT! Just swing, zap and gone

      1. I believe it……had two around me and one landed on my hand. Showed it to my wife, in disbelief, before killing it.

  32. Just to set the record straight, it was May 9-10, 1977 for the big snows for much of interior SNE. Boston received 0.5″ and most of the western suburbs with over a foot.

    1. I knew it started may 9. Was clearly off a year. I was just engaged – no wonder my mind was muddled :). Thanks Philip

      1. Although I know 28 yrs ago tomorrow we had a decent storm. I was in labor and thats hard to forget 🙂

  33. I find tomorrow’s weather interesting…….look at what has happened in Michigan, where they picked up some afternoon sunshine, which warmed things up. That cold air aloft with the upper low is igniting thunderstorms with a tornado warning on one of the cells. I know that most of those dynamics will be well to our northwest tomorrow.

    Just south of Chicago, where they broke into a lot of sunshine, the temps were generally 75F to 80F.

    With the way things have been going, I have to think the region gets sun tomorrow afternoon and the temps skyrocket…maybe into the 72-76F range, with dew points of near 50F, as opposed to today’s 20S. Today fealt unusually mild, tomorrow could feel like the middle of summer. And, maybe some areas see a thundershower tomorrow afternoon ?

  34. I was just outside staining wood and was eatin alive by mosquitos. Only 7 more month of them 🙁

    2. I do not ever remember having any mosquito problems even close to this early. Even in the height of the season they have never been this bad.

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