Monday September 5 2022 Forecast (7:52AM)

126 Comments

Giving up a “holiday” to foul weather is a relatively small sacrifice for what will end up being a widespread beneficial rain event across our region. Yes, I was skeptical. “All systems fail in a drought” is a phrase a well known Boston meteorologist used a lot, and often ends up correct, but we have joked about saying that until you’re wrong, because it’s easier to be wrong once than a bunch of times. Yes, some areas did get great benefit from a recent one-two punch, but this event will give more benefit to a wider area. And it’s a fairly benign looking set-up too. There’s no tropical system. There’s no “big storm”. It’s just a front that came through, slowed down, has a good atmosphere for lift, and a little wave of low pressure to come along to enhance it. We won’t escape some issues, because some of the pockets of heavier rain are indeed going to lead to some areas of flooding. We have parched ground. It’s hard to get rain to soak into that at first, and in areas that see downpours, flooding issues will exist at times today and tonight, maybe even into Tuesday as the system drags itself out a bit. But overall, this is going to be beneficial and finally more than just a scratch on the surface of the drought. So we’ll take it. Does it mean “drought over”? Not yet. We have to see what comes beyond this. We can easily slip back if we stay too dry, but for now, we can rejoice in the benefit we are about to get. This system finally does pull away by late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and then the forecast gets more simple – high pressure builds in with fair weather for later this week.

TODAY – LABOR DAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers trending southward with embedded downpours. Areas of flooding likely. Highs 65-70 southern NH / northern MA, 70-75 southern MA / CT / RI. Dew point 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers, some downpours. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely but with a diminishing north to south during the day. Areas of fog, especially morning. Highs 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Early showers linger southern MA / CT / RI, otherwise breaking clouds. Lows 53-60. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds linger South Coast otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

High pressure brings dry weather and above normal temperatures for the September 10-11 weekend. Watching for a frontal boundary to bring a shower threat early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is in control much of the time.

126 thoughts on “Monday September 5 2022 Forecast (7:52AM)”

  4. Thanks, TK and SAK.

    (We stayed with our beach plans yesterday and had a great time — may try again this morning!)

    1. Sounds perfect. My oldest and family spent the day at Humarock and said it was lovely. Tons of sand…,not typical for Hum…and warm water.

      1. And another stellar beach morning today!

        It’s still sunny and warm at the Cape, and we’re staring down the drive back…

  6. Thanks guys . Not looking forward to leaving work at 3 as between Holiday traffic & rain falling it spells trouble . Happy Labor Day everyone.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Chief met Cindy has widespread 3-5”. If we end up on the higher end that drought map come Thursday could almost be spotless. Getting sick of those darker warm colors.

    1. That map will be spotless if we get about 10-15″ spread out over the next month. Otherwise, it won’t change THAT much over the next couple of weeks.

    2. It would be nice if it worked that way but that’s not quite how it works…

      This will bring some very good benefit though.

            1. No idea.
              I don’t see much TV stuff online, and only limited TV broadcast stuff (mainly evening). I tend not to pay much attention to them when I’m forecasting. Harvey Leonard style. He didn’t watch his colleagues very often.

            2. Interesting. Thanks Philip. She is saying 2-4 now. But the time stamp was 8 something I think.

              Like TK, I don’t watch tv. I will watch online when we have an event approaching but otherwise come here and follow all the Mets on twitter.

              We still have wet surfaces from drizzle but nothing registering in my gauge.

              1. Thanks Vicki. If those lower amounts verify, that’s too bad. That 3-5 would have been a nice bonus, even the on the lower end. Oh well.

                1. Looks as if they are already verifying in some areas. Just started to rain here and I hear some embedded rumbles of thunder.

  10. Thank you TK,
    Starting off this two day event with a bang, 1.55” in the last 45 minutes alone and coming down in buckets.

    1. Here also. I went out to grab a camera to put in the basement just in case we get flooding and it started to rain.

  14. This is the one I don’t mind being wrong at all downplaying initially.

    I’m always skeptical in a drought with very few exceptions. I’ll go lower and be wrong once rather than go too high too often and be wrong a bunch of times.

    Barry B. and I have talked about this. 😀

  17. Thanks TK !

    Down here in Carver closing up the camper.

    Glad the rain held off til we closed up, but it’s desperately needed. The sand in the sites is pure dust. No campfires or charcoal grills were allowed, which we 1,000% agreed with.

  19. The steadiest rain axis is slow shifting. This is what SAK meant when he said significant rain may not occur over CC area until late today.

  22. Thanks TK.

    Not clear exactly where, but locally significant flood/flash flood events are possible over the next 48 hours from SNE down into the mid-Atlantic. What’s happening near the CT/RI border this morning is pretty localized and just an appetizer, but there may end up being a fairly sizable band of 3-6″+. Regardless of antecedent conditions, there are areas, particularly urban ones, that would see significant impacts if that verifies.

    I think it was smart to be cautious about this rain event given the “all systems fail” mentality. But the other side of that coin is “droughts end in floods” and that’s likely what we’re about to see.

  23. Here in southern California, we are baking under an intense and potentially historic heatwave as a rare 600dam ridge builds overhead. Major concerns for the power grid and human health.

    I set my personal all time high temperature record of 109 the other day. May get close or break it again any of the next 3 days.

    Not the driest heat either. It was a highly unusual setup here yesterday in which rather widespread thunderstorms developed due to anomalously high PWATs in the very hot air mass. I saw a few sprinkles (the first rain since I moved nearly 2 months ago!) but some areas got significant downpours and a number of severe thunderstorm warnings were issued north of Los Angeles, far more than what is typical for a whole year in this part of the world.

    1. I saw that mentioned and planned to call my brother in law today. Although he is in the Bay Area. I also saw you have several fires but do not know if they are contained.

      Always great to see you here. I hope you are settled in and enjoying southern CA

        1. We’ve had a couple of fires towards my neck of the woods, though the bigger issues have been further north where the winds have been stronger, towards NorCal and the Pac NW. It’s actually been a pretty quiet Western fire season, but making up a little bit of ground now unfortunately.

  24. Nice steady rain here. The best kind. Let’s see if it stays that way or the heavens open up. from what I can tell the area that
    was near the ct and Ri borders is slowly lifting ENE towards
    the Boston area. I have not noticed anything sliding North to South.

  27. I try to read the blog regularly, sometimes I may go a few days without reading, unfortunately somehow I missed that you had moved out west WxWatcher, I was wonder why you hadn’t posted as much. I wish you the best of luck out there in your new endeavor, a new NWS service office I assume.?

    1. Thanks South central! My posting has been pretty sparse lately, but I do hope to jump in more especially towards the winter season (when it really matters, right? 😉 ).

      And yes, I am out West now, and am actually with the US Forest Service now, working primarily with forecasts and decision support relevant to wildland firefighting operations in Southern California. But still working closely with my good friends at the NWS 🙂

      1. Your new assignment brings with it many challenges in predicting the ever changing weather conditions that surround wildfires. Your forecasts will be of the upmost importance in keeping those crews both on the ground and in the air safe. Best of luck to you.!!
        Yes please chime in as often as possible, I for one enjoy the professional supplement to the blog , plus it’s good to keep those tough New England winter storm forecasting skills sharp, you never know if you may need them again.

  28. Don’t know if it’s my imagination but the forecasts seem to be coming down a bit. Zack seems to be down to 1”-3” now and we discussed if Cyndi had lowered a bit. Guess it may just be a function of where the downpours line up. Any updates on models or other Mets?

  29. So far not much rain here in Back Bay. It’s been steady, but only light rain. The radar looks more impressive than it’s been on the ground in terms of rainfall.

    2. Agree totally. color me NOT impressed. Of course. it is still
      very early in the game. I am willing to allow some time. 🙂

  31. We have had 0.94 and our grass is not wet. Question is …where did the inch go? Did it soak in. Our soil is sand. Or did it run off. I’m tempted to say soak in since the rain was moderate but consistent and not a downpour.

  32. DB Hoping you can access this. Jack said 2-4 in addition to what we have seen for some localized areas

    https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/weather/

    Remember that this has been advertised as localized by TK and the Mets all along. N Billerica has seen 4.40, Newburyport 3.20, wayland

    Douglas and Dudley are in my area and are closing streets. And I had 0.94. South of here along the CT/RI border is seeing a lot of training.

    1. Thanks Vicki. I am in Natick and have total of roughly 0.4 inches so far. We are in a lull now but looks like that will change in a few hours. Surprised to see such a high total for Wayland.

  35. Thanks for checking in WxW!
    While this will not wipe the drought slate clean it’s certainly to be a huge help.

    1. Yep! Long range still doesn’t look overly wet so agree you guys won’t be entirely out of the woods, but also heading towards a cooler/wetter time of year where it won’t matter as much for awhile.

  36. Boston must have a rain shield in place (kind of a theme this summer). I’m seeing healthy amounts of rain to our north, west, and south. But, where I am I’ve registered a measly 0.14 in the last 24 hours. I’m kind of surprised it’s that much as it’s been quite light and hasn’t rained at all for the last hour or so, and only began around 11am with some spitting rain.

  37. This reminds me a little of a springtime system in a way. Slower to exit. Onshore wind follows it for a few days.

    The weekend looks STELLAR at the moment.

  38. Just looking at radar, the CAMs, and what’s already happening, a very concerning situation is developing in the flood prone Providence/Cranston metro area. Hopefully those cells developing over CT stay north and west of that area, though they may create new issues out that way. But anytime you see good models like the HRRR consistently showing these 6-12″ rain stripes, I get nervous.

  40. High tide in providence 4:07pm so those rivers will be holding back any water probably until 5pm or so in that local area.

    1. That shouldn’t have a major impact there.

      The flood-prone roads / parking lots on the other hand…that’s where the issues will be.

  43. The tornado warning in CT is for the type of cell that we used to not pick out tornadoes in. Very low level, likely very weak (if it manages to touch down). Not a “classic” supercell.

      1. I’ve driven here. It’s terrible for drainage. A moderate event causes issues. Put one of these rains on it and … break out the canoes.

  45. Rain to the North and rain to the South, but ZIP here and it looks to stay that way for some time to come. This really sucks!

    Lucky if we have had 0.2 inch. Logan so far: 0.12 inch
    PATHETIC!@)@(#*(!*#()!*(@$&!^$&^(#*$(*@^#$&*(@^#&*($^@

      1. The pool hose came loose two days ago. Not one drop sunk in. Daughter watched as it ran off down the incline.

    2. Indeed, 0.12 at Logan is probably accurate.I’ve measured 0.14 here in the past 24 hours. It began to spit a few minutes ago. But it’s still quite light.

      It’s really weird to have this rain repellent surrounding the hub. And it’s not the first time this summer, obviously.

        1. Yes should linger into a good portion of the day as well. I don’t think tomorrow will be a particularly heavy rain day, but it should be a “wet” day for a good number of hours until the dry air finally takes over.

      2. well, I certainly expected a little more than this. OH well, such is life in the big city. 🙂
        We shall see what overnight and tomorrow brings.

        A few rain drops here and there falling now. Just the Northern edge of the deluge much farther South.

  47. Commute home was awesome from Boston I left at 3:00 & was getting off in Hanover at 3:33 . I hit some pockets of rain but not the entire ride .

  48. My son was heading from N RI to take his son to his moms home in S Ri. Thanks to the many tweets, he knew not to go 95.

    One happy mom here

      1. Yep. Although what I sent him is tweets from our Mets and one from our own WxW.

        Out side of that, Social media has definite positives if you can just ignore the nonsense. I’m getting better at it but it is not easy for me

        1. It’s similar to what happens in the winter when the column needs to moisten before snow reaches the ground.
          The ground should be primed for absorption now and moving forward.

    1. The southeast part of the state has missed out on the action thus far but that will change as the night progresses.

  52. Checking in before beddy-bye:

    0.81 so far. Rain picked up in intensity in the last hour, although it’s light right now. Still pretty strong echoes over Cranston.

    ‘Night, y’all, and thanks, TK!

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