Warmth Wants To Stay But Can’t

77 Comments

7:57PM

It looks like our very warm pattern will have an interruption by way of the Atlantic Ocean for a few days from midweek into late week.

Hopefully most of you got to enjoy the beautiful 70-degree day (most areas) today! Sunshine faded late, but it was a splendid day, feeling more like May than mid March.

A disturbance and frontal system will cross New England from west to east on Tuesday, producing some morning rain showers, a break, and a few more at night in southern and eastern New England. Mild air will continue to dominate through the day. Cooler air will begin to move in at night and continue through Wednesday, as winds turn more north. A deepening trough offshore and high pressure building to the north by Thursday and Friday will likely result in a cloudier, cooler period of weather. We may break out of this somewhat on Saturday but more likely by Sunday as a ridge of high pressure tries to rebuild over and south of New England.

There are still indications of a very warm pattern for next week, but as always, we’ll have to keep an eye on the chilly ocean for its influence.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers after midnight. Low 43-48. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers ending from west to east in the morning then becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 64-69. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 45-50. Wind shifting to NW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers in the afternoon. High 53-58. Wind NW-N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 42. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 36. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny.  Low 39. High 63.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 72.

77 thoughts on “Warmth Wants To Stay But Can’t”

  1. TK, thanks. Your temps for Thurs/Fri are a little cooler than I would have expected, but I like the forecast. I think there was a TV met who spoke about a possible 80 degrees next week.

    1. Barry did. The Euro is consistent in setting up the possibility. Going with it for now, but I’m not sure if the “hottest” is Tuesday/Wednesday or Wednesday/Thursday. Timing tweaks coming with it so far away. And then you have that big puddle sitting just east of us – always a potential factor.

  4. Thanks TK. With the warm weather today I am wondering what summer of 2012 is going to offer.

  5. I was seriously considering taking my winter coat to the dry cleaners and away for the season as well as my flannel shirts one day this week, but based on some of those temps I guess I will hold off for now. Since I live in Boston, those ocean winds this time of year can be bone chilling even if the wind isn’t particularly strong.

    TK, I have this gnawing feeling that the first half of April might have one final cold blast…this upcoming spring seems too good to be true especially for around here in NE.

    The TV mets have been saying that we are having temps more like May, but what will the temps actually be like come May…like July…or March??

    1. That’s just it. People should not be lulled into some false sense of “climatological security” thinking that just because we’ve been in persistent above normal temperatures for several months, and that we’re having May-like temperatures in early to mid March, that we’ll have July temperatures in May. Though it is not in the cards long-term just yet, eventually we’re going to see things tip the other way and we’re going to enter a cool stretch where below normal temperatures are far more dominant. The only question is when this will take place.

      Don’t put away all the jackets yet….

        1. Well if you did it too early and we have an April cold wave and/or snowstorm then I want you to upload a photo to the local stations of you out there in a short sleeve shirt. 🙂

        2. I never wore mine. Well I wore it one day when I walked on the beach in January. That’s not much new however since I do not like to wear jackets. TK – my SIL is always out shoveling in a T-shirt!

      2. i do not want below normal temps may through october.
        the other times let it be colder but I do feel there is a possible cool shot later in the month or april.

  7. I always say the weather tries to balance itself out so why it has been mild for so long I would not be surprised if we enter a stretch of below normal temperatures.
    I am not sure if it was you TK or someone else when making their weather predictions for 2012 and they said the fall could be a very cool stretch and I am wondering if there thoughts remain the same on that?

    1. I could see it, but based on my forecast from this winter just ending, I’m going to be very cautious.

      1. Don’t be afraid to say it:) winter is over!! 🙂 couple weeks and everything will be turning green

  8. For anyone trying to grow grass in troublesome areas, I highly recommend Scott’s Turf Builder EZ Seed.

    1. Sorry for posting this on the weather site! After you (TK) went through the trouble of setting up a garden page for us, don’t I go and screw things up 🙂

      1. Wouldn’t waste my money on scotts products, this time of year you don’t need any extra help to grow grass, take it from me I am a golf course superintendent… just seed it, save your money

        1. Hi Nick – very exciting – one of my son’s best friends is a golf course superintendent also and I am amazed at the knowledge needed. We can’t even keep our lawn in shape with a few of us walking on it – let alone hundreds walking and swinging clubs on it. We’ll love to see you on the gardening blog 🙂

  9. Spring is in full force, saw at least 4 or 5 convertibles, for me it doesn’t matter if we r not the least snowiest, i have never seen a winter like we’ve experienced in my life, 2011-2012 goes in my record books as the winter that never came, a pond that I was brought up on as a kid always got frozen, 1st time ever it stayed water from start to finish, have a great day everyone, ocean temps are warming a degree a week

  11. Glad to see some showers of worth on the radar this morning. Hope everyone’s town gets some water.

    Behind these showers, where the skies clear, it’s 55F to 60F !!! I understand Logan’s record to be 73F today. If the wind direction is about 220 degrees, I think it ties the record or beats it by 1F, even with the higher dew points. If the wind is more due south (180 degrees), forget it.

    Looking forward to a few days of chilly, drizzly days along the coastline later this workweek. Maybe we can mist our way out of these dry conditions.

    Have a good day all !

  12. I like the current trend BUT I am not sure winter is really over. Later this month and early April could be cooler/stormier. I also heard one TV met make a very veiled reference to the possibility of a little winter weather in our future. (Emphasis on POSSIBILITY)

  14. This morning feels like spring. Why does it seem as if the rain has a different sound in spring – maybe softer. Or am I just in need of more coffee??

    1. it is the smell that occurs after it vicki also the ground is not solid or in case of this winter not as frozen. Can someone explain that smell to me. i think it is to do with ozone but i am not sure

  15. Parts of eastern and northern New Endland will be cold enough for some flakes if there should be any precipitation on Thursday.

  17. A decrease chance of afternoon showers and storms today which will allow for temps to rise higher than expected into the 70s maybe another record broken. for most of the week temps will be in the low 50s with a few days in the mid to upper 40s A front will move through friday afternoon and evening. the weekend looks a tad warmer but lows will be in the low to mid 30s with highs in the mid to upper 50s. a major warm up is possible for next week and we could be talking 70s for a 3 day period and if everything plays out a 80 degree reading some place in southern new england.
    this afternoon. partly sunny highs in the low 70s
    tonight partly cloudy lows in the mid 40s islolated showers and thunderstorms possible
    wednesday partly cloudy chance of an afternoon shower or storm highs in the mid 50s
    wednesday night cooler lows in the mid 30s chance of a shower
    thursday mostly sunny and cooler highs in the upper 40s
    thursday night partly cloudy lows in the mid 30s
    friday and friday night partly to mostly cloudy chance of showers highs in the mid 50s lows in the low 40s
    saturday through sunday mostly sunny highs in the upper 50s lows in the low 30s
    monday sunny and warmer again highs in the mid 60s.

    saturday night
    sunday
    sunday night
    monday

  18. Its March and the Storm Prediction Center has parts of western SNE in the general risk category for thunderstorms today with a 5% chance of hail and wind. You don’t see that too often. I don’t see any severe weather out there which is why I’ll give a 1 on the 1-4 storm index since no severe weather is expected should a thunderstorm develop in that area.

  19. 19 years ago today the east coast was dealing with the Superstorm of 93. This storm was the one that got me interested in tracking snowstorms. The storm had everything from tornadoes to snowfall that shut down some cities. The storm hit on a Saturday and I remember on Thursday some forecasters saying the big kahuna was coming and sure enough it did.

    1. Look at all the ways my son’s birthday has been celebrated:) The superstorm in 93 and the storm in 84 on day he was born 🙂

      My in-laws had yet to retire so were either still living in Rome or maybe Luxembourg at that time and they heard about the 93 storm on the news in Europe well before it hit. They called here to warn us 🙂

    2. I think that was the year that there was a bog snow storm on the 13th of every month, December through March. The March one was impressive.

  20. Melissa mentions that the GFS has a snow event for the 27th. This probably will end up on the same level as the “IWS” 😉 but I still have that feeling winter will make one final comeback between now and mid-April in one form or another.

    As I said earlier, this spring is just too good to be true.

  21. Spring has sprang, also all next week looks seasonably mild with temps in the mid 50’s to around 60 degrees!

  22. Quiet here. Haven’t seen a lot of people. I hope rainshines computer didn’t give out again! Instead of weather I’m working on genealogy at ancestry.com in between real work!

  24. Well, 71F at Logan with maybe two hours of full sunshine. In a way, too bad…would have liked to see what temps would have attained with clearing setting in at about 9 am this morning, as opposed to closer to noon time.

    1. Are you feeling any better Tom?

      It got to 73 here again and it’s a lovely evening. Feels and smells like spring

      1. Hi Vicki.

        Yes, thank you. Really turning the corner now and losing the cough. Quite a week for sure, but glad to be on this side of it.

      1. Marblehead…that’s not too far from the ocean, right ? Somehow, you must have seen some influence from the 43F water.

  25. Huge fire downtown tonight. Transformer on fire in a parking garage. Big clouds of black smoke. Concern fumes are toxic. Hotels evacuated. Fire is on Dalton St.

    1. Am watching longshot. With any luck they have recent tests on the oil in the transformer(s). Husband said if there is askarel present in the oil it is NOT a good thing.

      1. Lots of evacuations and lock downs. My daughter works at Saks and they were on lockdown for a while.

            1. Whdh reporting it is not toxic. Husband said they’d have to identify transformer and pull records before determining that. Hope whdh has accurate info. Husbands expertise is transformer oil.

              1. have my scanner on, and it’s a pretty big ordeal. Large scale black-out, possible long duration. Generations are being brought in. Foam has just be delivered from Massport.

                1. It is a huge deal. Husband got everything ready when he heard it in case he needs to head to work to do testing on the oil. His guess is they are correct – and that’s an if – then they have recent test info on the transformers

  27. Greetings from Inle Lake, Burma! Came in around 101 yesterday and boy did it feel hotter. Did I hear the word snow 🙂 to be honest after this heat 60’s sound really nice!!

  28. I’m wondering if ocean temps this yr are gonna run around 3-5 degrees warmer than average into Fall 2012, ocean temps just south of RI are 51-52 degrees, hope everyone had a great day 🙂

    1. which is concerning since we had a tropical storm last year and ocean temps were near normal

  30. Boston received 12.3″ of snow on this date of the 1993 Superstorm. Had it not turned to rain late in the afternoon, over a foot and a half (18″+) would have fallen. The next day (Sunday) was an icy mess all around IIRC.

    Rainfall = 0.6″ (approx.)

  31. Philip that was a storm that impacted a lot of people from tornadoes to snowfall that shut down some cities in the south.
    I remember the snow was up to my knee caps.

  32. how long is the fire been going and does anyone know how much of boston is with out power.

  33. Was checking out Minneapolis, MN, there highs for the week will all be at least 30 degrees above average. I find this just crazy, and the 18z GFS was just blazing with 850 temps above 10C most of the run.

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