Saturday September 10 2022 Forecast (9:07AM)

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High pressure continues to control the weather through the weekend with fair, warmer weather. While we see wildfire smoke from the West in our sky again today, some of this will depart as high clouds replace the smoke on Sunday, so while we’ll have sun both days, it will be filtered. Coastal areas will experience rough surf and large swells today into Sunday due to Hurricane Earl over the open waters of the western Atlantic. Use caution if beaching or boating. High pressure will be off to the south and east of our region and a trough approaching from the west will not be close enough to bring wet weather into the area, so expecting a fair and warm day for the start of the new week. That trough will bring its shower activity through on Tuesday – the unsettled day, before it moves off to the east and drier weather returns by Wednesday.

TODAY: Filtered sun – high altitude smoke. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke otherwise clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun filtered through high clouds. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

High pressure dominates with fair weather, cooler at first, then a warming trend. A frontal system may bring a shower chance by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

A shower threat may come early in the period with a frontal boundary nearby, then high pressure should take over with mainly dry and seasonable to warm weather as summer draws to a close and autumn arrives (equinox evening of September 22).

34 thoughts on “Saturday September 10 2022 Forecast (9:07AM)”

  6. 2 silly screwups in the short discussion have both been fixed. That’ll teach me to multi-task while blogging – or it won’t. 😉

  7. Thanks TK.

    Hope Boston especially can get some true beneficial rain come Tuesday.

    Looking forward to September 22! And good riddance soon to summer 2022. Once the high heat arrived in early/mid July that was it for me.

    I know, it could have been worse but when your house doesn’t have AC…well.

    1. I always miss summer when it goes but as a non-complainer I just welcome whatever is next – and that will indeed be autumn. 🙂

      Not sure about the rain for Boston Tuesday. It’s going to be convective in nature so likely variable.

      Overall pattern is DRY for next 2 weeks.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    We enjoyed the full moon twice — once from the big Arlington Heights hill yesterday evening as the moon rose over the harbor, and again just before 6am today. We can’t see nearly as far or low to the wsw (because of lots of trees), so no actual moonset, but it was still pretty special!

  9. I know it’s early but how much rain is expected on Tuesday. It’s origin does not appear to be synoptic so I’m guessing it all depends upon where those downpours, if any, set up. Probably way too soon to pin down but what is the qpf potential across the area?

  10. Thanks, TK.

    86F in Boston. Feels very warm, too.

    Old Man Summer lingering as he usually does, just to wear me out some more.

    1. This is why I usually wait until the equinox to start diving into fall things. It’s still very much summer even though retail, coffee shops, and the general mentality of society have moved on. I prefer not to abandon summer while it’s still in progress. 🙂

      1. I’m always ahead on holidays. It has nothing to do with weather. It has everything to do with my love of each holiday. My snoopy Uncle Sam will be replaced by my great pumpkin snoopy tomorrow. My Halloween decorations will go up in the next week. I’ll start hours of Christmas decorating right after Halloween.

        Plus with the season shift, if I wait for weather, I might miss Halloween altogether 😉

  12. Got to see Onset Village on the northern part of Buzzards Bay. Really nice little village with a decent beach and a couple of restaurants with decks overlooking the water.

    I’m not familiar with this area but will be getting to know it better the next many weekends as we’re camping down here on the weekends.

    The village was quite full today as might be expected on a warm sunny day.

  13. “Old Man Summer” as Joshua called it, almost always wears out its welcome to the nth degree, even into Columbus Day weekend sometimes.

    I have seen quite a number of very warm, even just about HOT Octobers in recent years.

    Our falls seem to take forever to cool down nowadays. When I was a kid, I very rarely went to school with no jacket once October began. Also home heating would get going, even just for a half hour or so to take off any morning chill.

    I fear one of these days our first frost won’t occur until mid-January.

    1. It has been taking forever. Barry has said as much and there are organizations that track the leaf drop, as well as other signs. You and I have said more than once that we started school in our fall wardrobe. That doesn’t mean snowsuits but fall

    2. Boston has reached 80 in October just 12 times in the last dozen years. All but 2 of the 12 occurred during the 1st 10 days of the month. Only 3 of those days featured temperatures of 85 or higher. In other words, your odds of a very warm day in October get pretty slim after Columbus Day. Your odds of a “hot” day are minimal at best, never mind a “HOT October”.

      Boston has also dropped below 32 3 times in the last 12 years in October: 31 on 10/19/15, 30 on 10/30/20, and 28 on 10/31/20.

      As for the first frost in mid-January, Boston has only made it past 12/1 without a 32-degree reading twice in 150 years – 12/2/75 and 12/6/09. For comparison, Jamaica Plain’s 1st 32 in 1975 was on 10/31, and in 2009 it was on 10/20. In fact, with 60 years of records, Jamaica Plain’s latest 1st 32 was 11/9/17. Blue Hill has never gone later than 11/15 without a 32, and that was in 1938.

    3. Philip…

      October temperature departures for Boston since 2000…

      2000: -0.6
      2001: +1.7
      2002: -2.1
      2003: -1.5
      2004: -0.7
      2005: +0.2
      2006: -0.2
      2007: +4.7
      2008: -1.2
      2009: -2.6
      2010: +1.1
      2011: +3.0
      2012: +2.1
      2013: +2.1
      2014: +1.9
      2015: -0.5
      2016: +0.8
      2017: +6.9
      2018: -0.1
      2019: +1.9
      2020: +0.2
      2021: +5.4

      NOTE: The sensor was relocated in 2011 (more surrounded by asphalt).

      The 2 standout warmer years (2017 + 2021) were not hot Octobers, but featured persistently very mild patterns especially for above normal min temps.

      1. Columbus Day itself 2017 was VERY HOT! I’ll never forget it. If the high that day wasn’t 90F exactly then it was as close as one can be. 88 or 89F? Not surprising at the high departure.

        1. Boston’s high temp on Columbus Day 2017 was 75, missing the record of 87 by 12 degrees.

          Blue Hill topped out at 71 on 10-9-2017.

          Are you sure it’s 2017 you’re thinking of? Those are not really hot, even by October standards.

      2. Thank TK. I’d love to see the comparison back to the time Philip and I are recalling since this century has been consistently above average. I’ll try to look later today if time permits. Game day after all !!

        Is this the normal that goes back only 30 years?

        An interesting way to understand how we’ve changed is leaf drop. Most, if not all, towns have pushed leaf collection further into November in this century

          1. Part of the reason for that, and Woburn did it too, was people were not cleaning up when the leaves actually fell. Here in Woburn they asked for a “post-Thanksgiving” collection and we got one. So while the average date of leaf drop has certainly gotten later, part of the reason is also societal. 🙂

            One additional and important factor, and I’ll look for better info on this, but I was talking to a “tree guy” who has been in the business for a long time, and over the past couple decades, our tree population has shifted to fewer maples and more oaks and their cousins. Maples are traditionally early leaf drop, while the others are later, so that in itself will skew the average leaf drop date to later.

  14. The one thing that is VERY different on a warm day like today is the earlier – due to earlier sunset – and more rapid `cool’ down. It’s 71F right now and should get to, say, 63F by the wee hours of the morning. That did not happen, say, 6 weeks ago.

    Despite my moaning about summer heat and humidity, I like having ALL 4 seasons. Each has its charm. I have a preference, which you all know, but I can enjoy the weather and many moments in all seasons.

    1. I’ve always said this. People often treat late August and September warm days like it’s July. Not even close. There’s a huge difference. Just a fact of physics.

    1. A gust front in high moisture conditions. You can have scud formations right along the leading edge that extend almost to the ground.

      These are caught on camera much more these days in the phone camera age, but they have always occurred.

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