Sunday September 11 2022 Forecast (8:50AM)

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The smoke shield has been replaced by a high cloud shield which will limit the sun today, and thicken up to even blot it out for a time as a warm front approaches but high pressure struggles to maintain control. So the rain with the front will be drying up as it approaches and moves in, but some of it may still reach the ground so the chance of a few showers has to be in the forecast. As we get to Monday, high pressure offshore delivers more humidity. A trough approaching from the west increases the shower chance Monday night, and as this system moves across the region with a frontal boundary during Tuesday, that will be the only day with a good shot at widespread showers and some additional drought relief. After the system moves by, it’s right back to a stretch of dry weather for the middle of the coming week.

TODAY: Limited sun – lots of high clouds into midday. Cloudier for portions of the afternoon including the chance of brief showers / light rain in spots. Highs 77-84, coolest on the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60+ early. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

After a brief warm-up with dry weather, a frontal boundary dropping southward introduces Canadian high pressure and cooler air during the course of the September 17-18 weekend. Potential for some unsettled weather arriving from the west at the end of the period with a trough of low pressure, but not convinced this system will have much push with it.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

The overall pattern looks dry with variable temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal, as high pressure will be in control much of the time.

52 thoughts on “Sunday September 11 2022 Forecast (8:50AM)”

  3. Thanks TK. I realize there seems to be some uncertainty regarding Tuesday, but do you have a ballpark estimate on the amount of rain likely in the metro west area? I never expected to have so much green back in my lawn until next spring.

    1. Still the same deal with it being somewhat convective, so carrying the potential for rather variable amounts, I think a ballpark estimate is 0.25-0.50 with scattered areas greater than 0.50. I think most areas will get wet on Tuesday though.

              1. No problem! 🙂
                I’m not liking the trend on the new guidance though. Less rain for a lot of the area.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    We watched “Where the Crawdads Sing” last night.
    What an amazing movie!!!!

    Available for rental on Amazon Prime, You Tube and Cable Systems, including Comcast.

    1. I saw that and have heard wonderful reviews Of the book. Thank you, JPD. I am sulking because I finished the series I mentioned here a bit ago. It was one of the best I’ve seen and it was sad to have it end. I now have something good to look forward to.

        1. I never watched handmaidens tale. I will need to check into that

          Sue Thomas: F.B.Eye. Based on a deaf woman who worked the FBI. It was lighthearted and also full of suspense. I had access only because I have hallmark movies now on prime so not sure of other streaming services that carry it. Sadly.

        1. I know that the fires are not always a good thing (some of them are natural and necessary, but we set far too many on our own), but the smoke is interesting for photography. I use that part of it to my advantage.

          The hazy red/orange ball sunsets are nostalgic for the days when we used to actually have haze. Not that the reason for the haze was good, but that’s not what I’m talking about.

          Things are what they are. As they were what they were. The sky was a lot hazier before approxinately 1990 and changes to emissions in the US started to reduce the amount of haze we see, actually increasing the solar radiation reaching the surface, ironically.

          Anyway, that look to the sky is very nostalgic to me.

    1. Yes. Not drying up as quickly as I suspected. I actually edited my forecast to include the chance of a bit of rain – not turning into a wet day, but some areas will have drops falling from the sky. Not really one of my best “day 1” forecasts. I was overestimating the power of the dry air at mid levels.

        1. Well, I still consider it bad when my forecast was for “filtered sunshine” with no mention of rain. 😉

          But it happens… haha!

            1. HAH!
              The GFS has already done that for northern Maine. It was only off by about 300 miles, but hey….

  13. So much for the Patriots getting “acclimated” to the Florida HHH. 🙁

    17-40 soon to be 17-41 all time in Miami.

      2. Offensive line with blown assignments, defense with zero turnovers, a quarter back with no zip on the ball as well as episodic inaccuracies, and two clowns calling plays. Let’s also not forget the Belichick has ONE playoff victory without Brady. It’s going to be a long year.

  14. And that’s why Miles Bryant is a defensive back. He can’t even make an interception thrown right to him. It was a gift given to him that he simply didn’t want.

      1. I watched all of it. I’m a fan whether they are ahead or behind. 🙂

        Truth is: We were spoiled for 2+ decades here. 🙂

    2. So, you’re counting them out in the next 3 already?
      I bet you’ll be wrong about at least one of them. 🙂

  18. Patriots have now lost 4 straight games in Miami. They probably have a better than than even shot of losing their first 4 games of the new season.

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