Wednesday September 14 2022 Forecast (7:21AM)

43 Comments

Low pressure in the Canadian Maritime Provinces and high pressure in east central Canada combine to deliver a much drier air mass to our region. It will start out on the mild side today, but with the help of a secondary cold front coming through the region early Thursday, we’ll see slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday, along with a gusty breeze, especially Thursday. The wind will ease as the center of high pressure moves closer to and eventually over the region during Friday. The high then slips off to the south allowing for a warm-up and continued dry weather into the weekend. After a cool Saturday morning start, we’ll warm nicely. Sunday presents a bit of a wild-card and some uncertainty as another high pressure area will be in eastern Canada and between that one and the one to our south will be a frontal boundary. This front may slip southward across our region during Sunday and its timing will be a determining factor in Sunday’s weather – both temperature and cloud cover. For now, going with a slower timing, a warmer day with a sun/cloud mix with the boundary staying to the north during the day, but confidence in this is not high 5 days in advance so follow updates as we get closer to this.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

With a frontal boundary nearby and a disturbance coming from the west we start next week with a possibility of unsettled weather and an uncertain temperature forecast with possibly a wide range from north to south 9-19. The forecast for this day can be fine-tuned as we approach the weekend. After this, high pressure is expected to be in control with dry weather and temperatures warming to above normal for the final few days of summer and possibly the first full day of autumn, depending on the timing of the next air mass change. Long way out – long time to figure out details.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and there may be 1 or 2 shots of cool air from Canada in a pattern of variable temperatures.

43 thoughts on “Wednesday September 14 2022 Forecast (7:21AM)”

    1. Oh just wait, in 24 hours the dew point will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than it is right now, with a gusty breeze then as well!

      2. This morning, I had A/C on in the car, but with the temp halfway btwn cold and hot, tomorrow morning, probably heat !! šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

        1. The 00z has something in the same time frame, but has less interaction at first and doesn’t merge systems as quickly.

  10. Out to 84 hrs, the 12z GFS seems to be picking up on this system east of the lesser Antilles, that the NHC is now also focusing on, better than the 00z run.

    This could be interesting.

      1. It wont happen this way, but the 00z GFS is taking it on a long, at first SLOW ride and now at 200+ hrs out, is nearing the east coast.

    4. Pretty impressive. Looks to be a cat 3, although it may be a bit different at this Lat.

      Category 3 96-113 kts 111-130 mph 945-964 mb 27.91-28.47 “Hg

  14. The question on tropical depression 7 is whether it will further develop and possibly redevelop after hitting/ swiping the Leeward Is and now possibly Puerto Rico.

  15. 12z GFS has a hurricane make landfall in eastern Long Island in the middle of the afternoon on Sunday September 25 – right about the exact time I’m supposed to be a Gillette Stadium for kickoff of the Patriots home opener.

    1. Ah yes, all is normal when J.C. is finding any cold and/or stormy pattern he can, even if it’s “one run”. šŸ˜‰

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