Thursday September 15 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)

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A cool, dry air flow between Canadian Maritime low pressure and east central Canada high pressure continues today into Friday but the gusty breeze we have will settle back on Friday as the high center moves closer. This high will then move right across the region early in the weekend before settling to the south of our region and allowing a warm-up to take place. For now it still looks like Canadian high pressure will not be strong enough to push another front our way before the end of Sunday, but that boundary will probably be in the region and combine with moisture from the west to bring unsettled weather to the region by Monday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Unsettled weather may linger into September 20 with a frontal boundary nearby before dry weather and above normal temperatures return for the final hours of summer. Watching for a Canadian cold front to drop through later in the period with a switch to cooler air but uncertain on the timing.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and there may be 1 or 2 shots of cool air from Canada in a pattern of variable temperatures. Also need to watch potential offshore tropical cyclone activity for at least increased surf.

54 thoughts on “Thursday September 15 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  4. Mr. Tom,

    Did you not say yesterday that the next run of the GFS would
    have the tropical pass by Bermuda instead of going up the CT Valley?

    0Z run

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022091500&fh=243&dpdt=&mc=&r=nwatl&p=prateptype_cat_mm&m=gfs

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat_mm&rh=2022091500&fh=282&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

    06Z run

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat_mm&rh=2022091506&fh=228&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat_mm&rh=2022091506&fh=276&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Autumnal chill in Northeastern Ukraine, as you can see from the images in the heartwarming video below. Winter can set in early in Eastern Ukraine, and especially across much of Russia. Obviously not in September, but certainly by the end of October/beginning of November. They will likely get one last quick burst of fairly warm weather in early to mid October – what is called Baba summer (baba references woman) in Russian and Ukrainian. https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1570323614398058497

  8. Summit of Mt Washington is 27.5F

    Webcam shows freezing mist/fog. Wind NW @ 62, gusting to 77.

    Good luck if the Cog is dropping you off today. 🙂

    1. I bring this up, because the longer its sheared, the better chances the system comes closer to the east coast and/or heads towards the Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic, maybe even the Gulf of Mexico. Then again, a weaker system over land might also not survive. Interesting give and take …….

      1. Maybe! Nothing would surprise me. I haven’t been able to figure out what they have done with much lately… Ah well.

  14. Remembering Dorian back in 2019 when it was suppose to hit DR, then PR, then the night before go between PR and USVI. No matter, GFS is nightmare with 10+ inches of rain for my location. EURO much more reasonal in the 2- 4 inches and due to the mountains and other factors u generally increase those amounts a little. I would either like this thing go further south than forecasted or gain a bunch of strength and turn prior to the USVI. I expect power to go out but this thing looks to slow down as well. :/

      1. Comparing Dorian to Fiona is comparing applies to bananas.

        Dorian wasn’t fighting off wind shear like Fiona, and Dorian was also several hundred miles farther south, moving northwestward.

        2. Sak my comparison is due to the trickyness of the track and how models were having a hard time with it even with it 3 days out even the evening prior. So yeah everything you said is correct, but so is what I said. Also though Fiona is higher in latitude in comparison with Dorian, Dorian was originally suppose to go to the DR 3 days before, DR/PR 2 days. PR a day before and the night before hit Eastern PR following day, was when they knew it was going to go right on top of me. as a strengthening cat 1 hurricane. Dorian was not fighting off windshear like Fiona but if I am remembering correctly dry air was questionable at times.

          1. Here’s where you argument falls apart. Dorian was forecast to turn NW after crossing the Windward Islands. The models were very consistent with that, but the turn just kept getting sharper and sharper, and ended up more NNW than NW. It became DR, then PR, the USVI. With Fiona, the models (except for the GFS), keep it moving toward the west and close to the USVI, then PR, then the DR. Completely different trajectories. One was either DR or PR/USVI, the other is likely going to impact all of them. Apple and Bananas.

            1. Me too Matt, especially since you might have been in st Thomas already and probably have more direct experience/insight than any of us up here do.

    3. The wind shear should keep Fiona in check, strength-wise. Very different from what Dorian’s environment was. I’m not sure Fiona will ever get to hurricane strength, at least until it’s away from the Caribbean. When it gets close to Hispaniola late Sunday / early Monday, that is going to do a number on it as well, but this doesn’t spare some of those areas from potential heavy rainfall – just keeps the winds in check. So we shall see how it goes. Stay safe!

      1. I never said Fiona would get to hurricane, my point was the amount of uncertainty in where Fiona is going to turn is similar to Dorian. generally models today are shifting the system weaker and further south, but that was what they were doing two days ago, and yesterday they went stronger, I am hoping they are starting to consolidate on some type of solution. The LLC and MLC being so seperate (non-vertically aligned) could keep the storm weak but it may also allow it to slow way down and reorganize on approach to the islands even with shear or it can continue to be seperate and simlar speed and shear environments continue. Hell its such a mess yet apparently it has 60mph max winds.

  16. Quick check of guidance – no changes, other than noticing a longer range trend for guidance to bring a shot of Canadian air into the Northeast sooner rather than later around the equinox. This could send us into a cooler period of time earlier than I indicated above, also could be instrumental in steering whatever / wherever Fiona is off the East Coast away from the mainland. Obviously too soon to be certain – just speculation.

    Gonna be bit blog-slow next few days. We have a window measurement on Tuesday …. 48 windows and 2 doors. Oh boy!
    Replacement project coming soon. Lots to organize and move before then so they can get to every window with ease. 🙂

  17. NHC assessment at 5PM too high for top winds. They use measurements in the deep convection which is very displaced. The meteorological techniques and satellite we can use to determine wind would yield a lower wind speed than they have, so Fiona is weaker than reported, probably by 5 to 10 knots.

    Shear is hurting the system big time and it’s going to need “luck” to survive at this point. The wind shear is not forecast to diminish much when the system nears Hispaniola, which is mountainous, and in addition we are looking at a dry air intrusion into that region. These are 3 negatives for the system. Good luck Fiona. You’ll need it.

    1. Yeah though the NHC is showing 60mph these are the satellite data.
      the latest ASCAT is showing mainly 45kts -50mph did have some windbarbs of 50kts (57mph) NE side of circulation. (meanwhile
      DVORAK is showing C.I 2.2, 1005mb 32kts around 37mph
      SATCON
      SATCON: MSLP = 1004 hPa MSW = 38 knots (44mph)
      SATCON Member Consensus: 35.0 knots (39mph)
      Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 48 knots (55mph)

  18. I did read what TK posted just above.

    Just reporting that the 18z gfs has a completely different 500 mb flow in the mid/long range and thus a completely different outcome for the very sheared Fiona.

    1. It’s also been very different than the other medium range guidance and very inconsistent, but it’s not really doing anything that would make me think it has a clue at this point. 🙂 Give me some consistency and then we’ll talk about the GFS. 😉 haha!

  19. US Drought Monitor today…
    No change from last week’s update, but it didn’t have Tuesday’s rain on the South Coast, which occurred after the morning cut-off time, so that extreme area is likely reduced to severe, even if no more rain falls between now and the next update.

    As noted above, next chance of anything resembling beneficial rain at least for some areas would come in the Sunday night to Tuesday time frame. For now we’ll be in speculation mode, then fine-tune, as always, when we get closer to that time frame. 🙂

  20. CPC’s updated long range forecasts were issued today. Nothing surprising there. The early outlook for the winter has the East Coast mild and not very wet as the winter is set to begin in La Nina, yet again. However, don’t hang your hat on the “mild” yet. There are some signs that it may not be quite that simple in terms of temps in the northern tier, including New England, and a lot of factors need to be taken into account yet. In other words, do NOT draw any solid conclusions based on that update.

    1. With the price of natural gas for heating in the futures market, anyone who heats with gas is in for a very expensive winter if cold/very cold. We need all the warmth we can get.

      2. Tell this person who just got last months electric bill for $985

        I’m praying the heat pump makes a huge difference

        2. Ouch. That has to hurt. Our biggest heating bill in this house in 12 years, was last winter for just over 500 for one month. With the futures market where it is now, that can easily be 1000 or more this winter.

          1. We only ever paid 800 for the year for heating this house. But the duct work and set up for the AC is a disaster. But 1000 is ridiculous.

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