Friday September 16 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)

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Today, I will try to bring the details of the upcoming weather changes into better focus than on the previous update. To start off, if you were up at sunrise today in the WHW forecast area you may have noticed “that hazy look” to the sky and the filtered nature of the rising sun. That, once again, is a plume of high altitude smoke that has made its way across the country from western wildfires. This smoke area will be in and out of our region over the coming days. Today it will give the sky the hazy look, especially early, before it starts to push off to the southeast and thin out, staying mostly to the south Saturday before coming back to the north Sunday and giving the sky a hazy appearance once again. We’ll see patches of high and mid level clouds in the sky at times on a northwesterly air flow today but most of these will be to the north. We’re still under the influence of Canadian high pressure with seasonable air, cool both this morning and Saturday morning with a modest warm-up this afternoon and a more noticeable one Saturday afternoon as the high center sinks to our south. With high pressure off to the south on Sunday we’ll get a push of warm and more humid air along with the hazier look to the sky from the smoke, giving it the feel of mid summer despite the lowering sun angle. In fact, we’re going to see about 20 degrees rise in dew point over the weekend as we go from the crisp 40s Saturday to the muggy 60s during Sunday. We’ll be keeping an eye on a frontal boundary to the north which will get a push southward, thanks to another area of high pressure in eastern Canada. I still think this boundary will stay far enough north to keep us warm through the daylight hours of Sunday. The boundary should then slip to the south during Sunday night and Monday while a disturbance arrives from the west at the same time. This will combine to bring a cool down and unsettled weather in the form of occasional rain Monday, especially in the afternoon and evening. The current timing indicates that drier air from the north and west will push this system out of the region on Tuesday, with improving weather at that time.

TODAY: Sun competes with patchy high and middle clouds mostly north, and high-altitude smoke all areas, especially morning through midday. Both clouds and smoke decrease with brighter sun for most of the afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TONIGHT: Clear except patches of ground fog can form in lower elevations. Lows 45-52, coolest in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog re-forming in some lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain, especially evening. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure brings dry weather for the last full day of summer 2022. Watching for a strong cold front to pass by sometime on the day of the autumnal equinox – September 22 – with a warm push ahead of it, a shower and thunderstorm threat along it, and a wind shift and a push of much cooler / dry air behind it. The timing will have to be tweaked, obviously. Fair weather and below normal temperatures follow it with a warm-up at the very end of this period as high pressure from Canada will then have shifted to the south of the region in a progressive weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Medium range forecasts during the peak of hurricane season are always tricky and especially when there is the possibility that a storm will be at least in the general vicinity of the part of the world you are living in. Such is the case here. Fiona, which as a tropical storm will be continuing to battle wind shear, dry air, and eventually mountains, will struggle as it goes into and through the Caribbean in the days ahead. Beyond that, the track and any restrengthening become less certain to determine, but the most likely scenario based on the anticipated weather pattern is that the system ends up somewhere off the US East Coast by the final days of September, at least increasing our surf along the coast. We’ll obviously have to watch for a more direct impact, but my earliest thoughts are that we will be seeing yet another strong push from a Canadian air mass and high pressure area that will be preceded by unsettled weather and followed by a shot of cool/dry air here, keeping any tropical systems from reaching the region. Obviously, you can’t make this kind of forecast in the 11-15 day range with high confidence, so there will be a lot of monitoring to be done in the days ahead.

30 thoughts on “Friday September 16 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  8. A thought occurred to me yesterday and not for the first time

    We have been very blessed at whw to have watched three avid weather enthusiasts move through college and become well respected meteorologists in the field of their choice.

    Thank you to WxWatcher, Matt and Scott for sharing your passion with us. And congratulations to you all for following that passion with dedication and hard work.

  11. Great post, Vicki.

    Indeed, it’s been great having WxWatcher, Matt, and Scott inform us and share their passion for weather and climate.

  13. Vicki, Joshua, et al., thank you very much for the kind words! While I can’t chime in as much as I’d like, I still really enjoy reading the blog and discussion. And of course, thanks to TK for giving us this space! 🙂

    Most of the smoke you all are seeing this morning is about 1-2 weeks old, mainly coming out of California and Oregon, but some from neighboring states and BC as well. It’s been a fairly slow journey across the country just due to how the upper level pattern has been. Thankfully, most of the responsible fires are now inactive or out (one biggie, the Mosquito Fire, remains large and active). The Western wildfire season is not over, but is well on the downtrend now.

    1. To add, here in Southern California, while the greatest number of fires occur in the summer, many of the largest and most destructive fires occur in October or later, as the Santa Ana winds don’t really start until then.

      1. Good to hear from you WxW! Must be boring issuing the same forecast day after day after day. 🙂

        “Sunny and warm/hot with temps in the 80s.”

        Don’t be a stranger and chime in when you can. 🙂

    2. Thank you, WxW. I can’t say enough how much I meant every word and how nice it is to see you here. Matt also. I don’t know where Scott is now but if anyone does, I’d love to know.

  14. Hi WxWatcher, always good to see you. Hope all is well!

    Popping in briefly during a very busy afternoon / evening.

    12z runs regarding Fiona. First, the storm will still struggle, as mentioned yesterday, heading into the Caribbean. The guidance has, for now, decided in consensus that Fiona will reorganize near the eastern Bahamas but that the weather pattern will keep it away from the US East Coast. This is similar to what I leaned toward in my discussion today and continue to lean toward now, even this far in advance. Obviously, as it should go without saying, there’s a long way to go and weather, while predictable, is not perfectly so. As long as there is a storm out there, we should keep an eye on it.

    2. Former typhoon. The mets here actually talked about this potential a couple weeks in advance as being part of a tool that changes the pattern. It’s in progress now.

      That type of occurrence, by the way, is not unusual at all. It’s common.

    2. I don’t have it “officially” but my guess is very little from here on. They have a team of 5 now.

  18. New weather post…

    Probably not here much if at all today.
    Cleaning project, long-lawn mowing, and visit from out-of-state brother.
    Next update tomorrow AM, as early as possible.

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