Saturday September 17 2022 Forecast (7:53AM)

47 Comments

High pressure maintains control of the weather this weekend, which will have two distinctive personalities to its weather. Today is a dry day – dew point in the 40s, with a chilly early morning and a pleasantly mild afternoon, light wind, and bright sun mixed with patchy passing clouds as the center of high pressure moves from overhead to just south of the area. Sunday is going to bring the feel of summer back, humidity spiking with dew point rising to the 60s, a gusty southwesterly breeze with high pressure to the south, and plenty of sun but a hazier look to the sky due to another plume of high altitude smoke from western US wildfires. A cold front approaching from the north later Sunday may trigger enough instability so that we see an isolated shower or thunderstorm by evening across southern NH and a remote chance that one of these could wander into northeastern MA as well. As the front presses closer then passes through the region, a round of scattered showers should accompany it during the nighttime hours. Moisture arriving from the west as this front settles just south of the region will help to bring rounds of showers and much cooler weather for Monday, into Monday night as well. High pressure from the north is expected to push the unsettled weather to the south with improving conditions Tuesday, and then as the pattern progresses, the high will move over then south of the region with fair, mild weather for Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern shores. Wind W up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. High altitude smoke arriving. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Hazy (smoke-filtered) sunshine. Highs 80-87 but 70s South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

There are changes and lots to keep track of during this period of time. First, a quick push of warm and humid air will be thwarted by a strong cold front sweeping across the region on the day of the autumnal equinox (Sep 22), and this front can bring a round of showers and possible thunderstorms, and definitely a gusty, shifting wind (timing of front to be determined). Coolest air in a while arrives behind front for September 23 and 24 as we have a gusty breeze on 9-23 then less wind the day following. High pressure shifts over then south of the region with a warm-up for the last couple days of this period, and eventually the possibility of showers as another front approaches. At the same time, we’ll be watching for Fiona somewhere off the US East Coast (likely quite far out to sea but close enough for impact via rough surf). Fiona, while battling adverse conditions currently, will be well beyond that and should be of hurricane strength when it makes its closest pass to our area, but kept offshore by that push of Canadian air.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

The trends continue to be for another strong push of cool air from Canada arriving early in the period that may last several days with mainly dry weather conditions as well.

47 thoughts on “Saturday September 17 2022 Forecast (7:53AM)”

        1. Well at least here it wasn’t 5 a.m. … Julie’s on the West Coast and was up far too early. HAHA

  3. Thanks TK.

    The last weekend of summer. Y-A-A-Y!!! 🙂

    Hopefully the backdoor brings much beneficial rain to our area come Monday. Our first true “rainy day”?

    Hopefully the last of the high heat/humidity for the year but I won’t get my hopes up. There’s still early October.

    1. I don’t think it will be a rainy day start to finish. More episodic, but still at this point any rain is beneficial.

      The weather pattern going forward does not support anything other than brief spikes of warmth and humidity, in an otherwise seasonable to cooler regime. The warm / humid spike Sunday will be fleeting, and we may get a few more hours of such weather on Thursday, depending on the timing of the front.

      We’re beyond the “hot humid” stretches, especially once we get to equinox. Boston has only hit 90 in October 3 times, all a long time ago, and based on the current medium range trends, they won’t hit 80 in Oct let alone approach 90. We’re going to have an autumn this autumn. 😉

      Trees are already showing earlier signs of changing compared to last year, although some (not all) of this is drought stress.

      This year’s foliage season I believe will resemble 2016’s, an early spike of bright colors in trees like swamp maples and red maples, a middle lull, and a flare of rustics (oaks, etc) later on. Some of the more stressed trees will preserve themselves by dropping leaves quickly and going dormant.

        1. Absolutely no solid idea on that yet. It could, technically, but there’s not much of a way to tell that until we get into late October / November and have more puzzle pieces to play with.

  4. TK – Have you encountered “Kevin” the leader of the terrifying turkey gang roaming around Woburn? I saw the story early this morning on WBZ Ch. 4 news. It’s hilarious! 🙂

    I only see turkeys in my neighborhood in the springtime.

    Hopefully “Kevin” will be in a 350F oven for 3-4 hours on the 3rd Thursday in November. 😉

    1. Haha Kevin won’t be in anyone’s oven, trust me. 😛

      I have seen him. He’s quite the character. He will stand in front of a car and “decide” when the driver will be allowed to proceed. If you try to go he’ll quickly run around to the side and peck at the door. But Kevin will have to be careful, last time we had one of these characters, his end was not pleasant (and not on purpose, quite by accident in fact).

        1. I can imagine he probably views that as some kind of peacock – the enemy he needs to flee rather than fight. 😛

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    50 again this morning.

    Looks like good model agreement on Fiona taking a right turn OTS Looks like only question is how close to Bermuda does it go.

    1. The only stand out is the operational run of the ECMWF which takes Fiona back toward Nova Scotia, but this is pretty much the only run – it has almost zero support from the ensemble members. Other than Bermuda, I think once Fiona is away from the Caribbean / eastern Bahamas she’s a fish storm. Still have to watch it though. Stranger things have happened.

  11. Thanks TK!

    Regarding Fiona… I wouldn’t write it off in terms of direct impacts to the East Coast (not that I think anyone here has done that). Several consequential East Coast hurricanes have traversed a similar path to what it will take the next couple of days. In addition, it will soon be interacting with Hispaniola; how much interaction it has with that mountainous island will have a big impact on its short term intensity, which could then affect its longer term track. The current NHC forecast shows no weakening of the storm on Monday when that interaction will occur. I don’t quite buy that. If it does end up weaker and slower to reorganize coming off the island, it is likely to end up further west in the 3-4 day range, and that shift would likely continue and potentially magnify into the 6-8 day range.

    Having said all that, OTS certainly appears most likely, but it’s far enough out with enough uncertainty on the table that based on climatology alone it should be watched…

  13. 12z GFS has the front come through on Thursday with rain changing to snow before it ends in the mountains Thursday night. On Friday, it keeps highs in the 50s across the region with a few lower 60s near the South Coast.

    As for Fiona, I’m not sure what to go with yet. NHC bumped the VI up to a Hurricane Watch, and to be honest, I don’t think it is warranted. The Hurricane Warning for PR? Absolutely. But in the VI, they may not even see gusts to 60, let alone hurricane strength. The fact that the center reorganized further east under the convection is bad news for PR and the eastern DR, and we’ll see what impact the relocated center has on the next set of model runs, but the 12z HWRF is a tad weaker, but also farther south and west than the 6z run when you get out to the end of the run.

  14. Moved from covid page where I placed in error

    Sadly, I think our sweet little hummingbirds are moving south. I had a window feeder beside the chair I sit in for coffee, news and Wordle each morning. One male who I called top hat visited it too many times to count. Two days ago he hovered in the other window for an unusually long time. That was last I saw of him. Maybe he was saying goodbye for now. ❤️

    2. I believe I heard one of our tv mets mentioned that some birds are already heading south. Oh well.

      Unfortunately here in the city (Boston) we don’t notice such behaviors. A bird is a bird is a bird, etc. 😉

      1. Nothing unusual. Some head south, some don’t, and some arrive here from further north. Always been that way. 🙂

        1. Nope. But didn’t think it was…for hummers or birds. My hummers tend to have arrived on the same day the last few years. I usually check with local folks to see if their hummers have left. But will fill feeders for a couple of weeks to feed those heading by from north of here.

          1. I was just joking with Phil. 🙂 I never see hummers up here but probably because I or nobody I know has feeders. They are cool though. 🙂 I’ve only seen one in my life. 🙁

            I got a vicious visual aura migraine today, hit me right in the middle of my brother’s & SIL’s visit!

            2. Sorry to hear about your migraine.
              My wife gets what her ophthalmologist terms a
              Retinal Migraine.

              Symptoms are:

              A retinal migraine attack starts with monocular (one eye) visual symptoms. These symptoms include:

              Scintillations (seeing twinkling lights)
              Scotoma (areas of decreased or lost vision)
              Temporary blindness

              Don’t know if what you experienced was the same or not. Either way, NO FUN!

              1. I’m sorry to hear that. They suck to put it mildly. Mac and I both had the same. Our youngest also starting with high school. We still get them. Pressure changed often. trigger them

              2. The most common thing for mine… Either a pinpoint flash or a blind spot, then it evolves into a very tiny bright spot, which then evolves into a zigzag flashing pattern, extremely sharp edges, but in the general shape of a boomerang, which spreads either left or right across my visual field (both eyes and visible if my eyes are open or closed). I go up to about 60% blind during this 20 minute occurrence.

                The patterns that move right to left cause me less pain than the ones that move left to right. NO idea why.

                If it’s a no-pain version it’s basically over. Sometimes I get minor pain that doesn’t last that long (with a left mover). Right movers will result in a moderate to severe headache that will persist for hours, then into the next day when it becomes a “hollow” pain that hurts like crazy if I cough or sneeze. From there it fades over the next 12 to 24 hours, and that is how it ends.

                1. Oddly mine most always start in the morning. And I find I crave something more on the fatty side to eat for lunch. But they always last the day. For the rare times they start in the afternoon, they go away with little pain. They also bug my stomach

        1. That’s your N HEM pattern changer (or at least aiding in it) and we are going to be below normal for temps in the 6-10 day period, possibly longer.

          The large scale pattern has been reminding me a little bit more of the 1980s recently.

    1. It was quite a sight. Last night’s sunset was a combo of the advancing smoke as well as high clouds. I’ll see if I can grab a pic to share on the new blog post.

Comments are closed.