Monday September 19 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)

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A back-door cold front has moved into the region and has put most of the WHW forecast area on the cooler side of the boundary, but this front is now slowing down, and will eventually come to a stop, or just waver around a little bit, stretching from the MA South Coast across southwestern or central RI and east central CT up into even south central MA for a while before it slips a bit south of there. This sets up a fairly sharp temperature contrast across the boundary, with a large area of daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s, there will be a narrow area to the south of the front that will break 70, and while there is a general low overcast on the cool side of the boundary, to the south there are breaks of sun, at least for a while, which can help boost temperatures even toward 80 in a few areas. During this time, a trough of low pressure will be moving in from the west, tossing plenty of cloudiness over the top of what’s occurring below, so eventually the entire region is overcast by a bit later. Other than a few pockets of light drizzle on the maritime side of the front, we’ll go through many hours of the day rain-free, until a batch of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms arrives from the west toward and into evening. I’m not expecting any severe storms, but some downpours are possible. This activity will push out of the area overnight. Tuesday, as a surface low pressure area cuts across central Maine then heads into southeastern Canada, we’ll get its wrap-around moisture in the form of abundant cloud cover and scattered showers, so look for another unsettled day that I had previously been more optimistic about. However, any rain drops we can get from this system will further help us in reducing the still ongoing drought. Finally, a ridge of high pressure will poke its way into New England and provides us with our pick of the week on Wednesday, a dry and mild day for the final full day of astronomical summer. On its heels comes a strong cold front which will sweep across the region during the morning hours Thursday, ushering in a cool Canadian air mass, the front accompanied by a band of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, mostly in the pre-dawn hours, but may linger a bit into the daylight portion of morning for southern and eastern areas. The balance of Thursday will feature a gusty wind and a sun/cloud mix as the cooler, dry air rushes into the region. The autumnal equinox occurs that evening, so the arrival of the fall air mass will lead it by a number of hours – but generally right on cue. We’ll be in a northwesterly air flow of cool and dry air Friday with fair weather for the first full day of autumn.

TODAY: Breaks of sun MA South Coast to south central MA, RI, eastern CT, eventually clouding over there. Overcast elsewhere. Pockets of light drizzle possible especially eastern coastal areas. Showers arrive west to east later. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern shores, except a narrow band of 65-72 near frontal boundary and 73-80 to the south of it over southeastern CT, southwestern RI, and possibly the MA South Coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH except S to SW 5-15 MPH on the warm side of the front.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening, including possible thunderstorms. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, especially late morning on. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH early, diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI, early to mid morning. Otherwise, sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74 early, then cooler. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

High pressure to the west of the region shifts to the south of the region during the course of the first full weekend of autumn September 24-25. Saturday’s a day with a chilly start, seasonably cool afternoon, and NW wind. Sunday’s a day with a cool start, mild afternoon, and W to SW breeze, but lighter than Saturday, but overall a great weekend for outdoor activity. Caution for any coastal plans (beach, fishing, boating): Rough surf and large ocean swells will occur due to the far offshore passage of Hurricane Fiona, but our weather pattern will keep this system from a more direct impact. Next trough and frontal system expected to bring unsettled weather to the region September 26, maybe into the next day, followed by another shot of cool/dry air with breezy conditions at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Expecting high pressure to dominate with mostly dry weather, below normal temperatures to wrap up September and a milder trend to start October.

57 thoughts on “Monday September 19 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  1. Wow. Am I actually first?

    Thank you TK. Any idea as to the amount of QPF that can be expected in the I95 belt today?

    1. I laugh every time I watch it! The smile at the end is priceless.

      This comment is dead on:
      “Scene out of looney tunes”

  10. Thanks TK

    Steady drizzle but light enough to have accumulated only 0.04. I’ll take it. DP is 63 making indoors feel wet also. Nice day for ducks 😉

  11. Thanks TK !

    My wife and friends booked a trip in a few months to Punta Canha.

    Wonder how their hotel is faring in the right front quadrant of Fiona.

    2. Indeed. It has been apparent for days that Bermuda could be under the gun on this one. Those paths are pretty tight. Not a whole lot of divergence there. 🙂

    3. The good news is Bermuda is rather well equipped to handle these. They will prepare properly and be as ready as they can be.

      1. It’s amazing how they handle major hurricanes like we handle blizzards. A day or two of cleanup and back to normal like it never happened.

  16. 2 things on 12z GFS and EURO …..

    they both have next tropical system following Fiona and as of now, its headed west towards the Caribbean, maybe Gulf of Mexico.

    Also, the system that gives us a significant cooldown Friday and Saturday interacts with Fiona and intensifies it further, perhaps morphing into a bomb of an extra tropical system, tracking into or near Newfoundland. Good luck to them with that monster.

  17. TK, a movie you might like seeing how you are a drummer.

    It is available on Netflix and is entitled “I Used to be Famous”.
    It is a heartwarming, wonderful movie. I absolutely loved it.

    A brief synopsis:

    Follows Vince, a desperate former popstar who dreams of making a comeback. An impromptu jam session with autistic young drummer Stevie sparks an unexpected friendship between the two misunderstood musicians.

    The actor who plays Stevie is really a musician and he is autistic as well and he did an amazing job.

  18. September temps at Boston (through 18 days)…

    Blue Square (below normal high temp) days: 10
    Red Square (above normal high temp) days: 7

    We’ll be adding more blues than reds in the days ahead.

  19. Wow, Fiona’s eye cleared out the last 2 hrs and the central dense overcast with rapidly cooling cloud tops around the eye is impressive !! Intensification in progress !!

  21. Before everyone locks in the gloom and doom scenario for Bermuda, please remember that at that time frame, the average forecast error on the track is in the vicinity of 175 miles. Just because the majority of the models show a track near Bermuda doesn’t mean that will actually be the case.

    1. Definitely aware of that. Even so I think if they did get a pretty close pass just west or direct hit they do handle these better than a place like PR. Still several days out and time to fine-tune things.

      I like the idea of a little further west of Bermuda than NHC track because of the character of the trough to its west – i.e., a little extension off the base of it in the Mid Atlantic, actually the very start of what becomes a “progressive cut-off” in the maritimes later, that might tug Fiona slightly west. But I’m getting a bit more detailed than I should more than a couple days out. Monitor mode.

      They should just be ready there, in case.

      1. Me thinks we all know this. They have a history of being prepared and handling it well. Doesn’t mean they cannot take a difficult hit, but ……

  22. We had the weaker version but even it provided a great lightning show. And 0.28 of rain for the second night in a row. Total today is 0.33

  23. Ground-shaking thunders for a short time here in Woburn as the cluster moved through. Nice purple flashes.

  24. Bit of a shift west especially with regard to proximity to Bermuda on latest update. I think this is the right idea.

        1. I kind of like “Fiora”. Yes, when this storm gets up to the Maritime provinces and transitions, it will become part of a very large low pressure circulation that will have some snow involved with it. There is a lot of early-season chill going on to our north.

  25. Fiona is in a lot better shape sooner than I thought it would be. Thankfully it wasn’t this strong before it got to PR etc. I mean that had it bad enough, but it could have been far, far worse.

    Goes to show you this stuff is not so cut & dried. Meteorology is complex.

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