Tuesday September 20 2022 Forecast (6:55AM)

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Wrap-around moisture behind departing low pressure gives us an unsettled day today, and the cloud cover will keep us on the cool side as well. Improvement arrives late tonight and leads to a nicer day Wednesday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region. But look out! Here comes a strong cold front Thursday morning, accompanied by showers and possible thunderstorms. This will pass by and then dry weather returns, but this time with the bluster and cool-down of autumn later Thursday, just in time for the autumnal equinox Thursday evening. Friday and Saturday will feature fair weather and below normal temperatures as Canadian air is delivered on the eastern side of high pressure. Something further away will be impacting our region late this week, and that is Hurricane Fiona, which is forecast to track west of Bermuda late Thursday and then accelerate northeastward in the waters well east of New England Friday before heading into southeastern Canada Saturday. Large swells and rough surf will result, impacting any coastal plans.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon, a few of which can be briefly heavy. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening. Areas of fog redevelop. Lows 51-58. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds return from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn, favoring areas north of I-90. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms through midday, ending from northwest to southeast, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74 but falling temperatures later in the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

High pressure to the west of the region shifts to the south of the region with a bit warmer air arriving September 25, but we may also see the advance of clouds before the end of that day with a warm front approaching the region. This will be ahead of the next trough and low pressure system which is expected to bring a round of showery weather on September 26. Unsettled may linger to September 27 as well but the trend will be for a return to cool/dry weather middle to later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

For now expecting high pressure to be the dominant force with fair weather and moderating temperatures, but we may need to watch for unsettled weather arriving later in the period, possibly in the form of remnant tropical moisture. A lot of uncertainty in this part of the outlook.

58 thoughts on “Tuesday September 20 2022 Forecast (6:55AM)”

  3. Glad to see a westward push on the projected track in the vicinity of Bermuda. Another 50-100 miles westward shift would be good.

    GFS has an extra tropical low at 930 mb in the vicinity of Newfoundland and Euro at 933 mb in the same general area.

    Models consistently projecting next system after Fiona.

    1. Another tiny tick westward on the 5AM update putting Bermuda closer to the edge of the cone – not out of it, but closer to the edge. This is a trend in the right direction still.

      I’ve noticed the guidance with its consistency on predicting something else will be “out there” but as of yet I wouldn’t focus too much on their tracks, even if there is some consistency. I don’t think we see that continue straight through.

  11. Good morning
    Fiona wrecked Puerto Rico. Roads, bridges, houses destroyed. The way that the federal government has treated the US territories in the past (not just trump) makes me feel it will take a long time for recovery for them. There are rivers that went above those seen in Hurricane Maria back in 2017.
    It was a close call. The Island of Culebra which I can see from my window, had major flooding issues it was that close.
    For me though, no damage was done, and we lost power once and a while (typical for any weaker system impacting us.
    St. Croix had flash flooding (closer to the storm and was raining all of Saturday night while St. Thomas and St. John had dry air and wind shear keeping the moisture off our coast.
    We did have some flooding in the main low-lying areas of town and had storm surge that flooded waterfront.
    Other than that, not that big of a deal for us but it was close.
    I could see the bands moving just to my south over the water and going towards Culebra.

    The system to the SE of the Windward islands look to stay well to my south as well and its looking like activity will be shifting more to the WCAR/GOM than Eastern Caribbean.

    1. Thank you, Matt. Great news that you are all right. Truly horrific news for Puerto Rico. I sure hope they get the help they need very quickly.

      1. Well, I do know the mid latitude system it will be merging with will likely have some chilly air aloft, so, I suppose somewhere west of Newfoundland could get some wet snow, especially at higher altitudes.

        The concern with pressures on the global models is an expansive area, (much larger than now) of hurricane force wind gusts across Newfoundland and perhaps into eastern Labrador.

        I know deep, intense storms are common place up there, but even for this area, this will be on the stronger side of some of their most intense systems.

  14. Continued moderately good news for Bermuda in terms of the Fiona track forecast as they are on the eastern edge of the cone and may actually end up just outside it in a few updates….
    Time will tell.

    Philip .. Having these systems go bombs and produce some snow in eastern Canada, even around this time of year, is not totally unusual. This could definitely impact some areas with some early winter weather for sure – something to watch. The models can and often do tend to over-forecast this aspect of a former tropical, but we’ll see.

  15. I think there is a Gaston in our future which the US mainland could see in some way, but it is a ways off for sure. I must admit I do like watching the waves from hurricanes that track offshore. It’s also about as close as I want to get.

        1. Oh I’ll be all over it. But it’s not there yet so I’ll just go with a couple lines. You know how the song goes………

          “We don’t quite have Gaston,
          but it MIGHT be Gaston.
          If it gets organized its name will be Gaston
          For there is no disturbance to rival it
          Perfect, a pure paragon
          There be no Hermine, no Ian, no Julia
          Before Gaston takes up all the heat and forms…”

          Ok, it’s weak, but I tried. I did use one exact line because it worked. 😛

  16. 5PM update…
    Bermuda is now JUST outside the cone’s eastern edge and is under a tropical storm watch. I am beginning to feel a little better about them getting grazed and not slammed. Always good to keep in mind the track error that can exist / occur when these things are still a few days away, both on models, obviously, and NHC forecasts. This is why they use the cone. 🙂 Anyway, looking a bit more promising for not-so-bad on the scenario for Bermuda. We’ll keep monitoring.

    That hurricane is going to produce some really rough surf on our shores late this week. I currently plan to visit the sea wall at Lynn / Swampscott for Friday night’s high tide…

  17. I know this isn’t about weather, but I am concerned for the people working at The Onion. The bar has been raised again as a result of this actual headline:
    “Beyond Meat executive charged with biting man in fight”

  18. According to JR, the same Thursday front that will prevent Fiona from nailing us, will shove Fiona due north into Nova Scotia. Hopefully NS will faire considerably better than PR.

        1. Prayers. Majy. Mac has many relatives in Bible Hill. Some I’ve met and some I got to know through ancestry. But it is not in the target area.

          One met…can’t recall which….said it may take a left turn. And we don’t like left turns. I may have misunderstood

    2. “Could”, but I think it will be a little more toward maybe extreme eastern NS and more likely PEI then Newfoundland. The latter two should get the worst of any wind. Regardless, all of NS should monitor. They’re very much not out of the woods from a potential powerful storm (would be post-tropical at that time).

  20. Great potential developments for Bermuda. It is one of our favorite spots. Quick question – do you have a ballpark rain estimate for Thursday in the metro west area? Thanks.

  21. CPC with below normal temps for New England 6-10 & 8-14 day outlooks. I agree. More “blue squares” to come.

  24. Thanks, TK

    Nice job on your parody. Perhaps WHW can become the official weather consultant for Disney+! 🙂

    Did you get Purple Rain with those purple flashes last night, TK?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lElCzhjiPX8

    I’ve been meaning to ask you about thunder, TK. Have you ever studied thunder? I know geography plays a lot into the sound of the thunder. What causes low, rolling thunder?; what causes crackling thunder? Would ground-to-cloud lighting produce a different sound than cloud-to-cloud?

    The only thing I know about thunder is what my Grandma taught me, when you see a lightning, count “One Mississippi, Two Mississippi…” Five Mississippis equals one mile.

    Just curious! Please don’t feel you have to respond tonight.

    1. We will see. 🙂
      I’m actually involved in some serious songwriting with my son. We’re releasing an album of 9 songs on 8-4-2023. It will be an online thing so anybody will be able to hear it easily. 🙂

      I did have purple flashes & resultant purple hue to the rain shafts. 🙂

      Thunder sound is determined by proximity to the source, air make-up, and geography.

      CG lightning sounds no different than CC or IC lightning, on a baseline, but CG lighting’s sound waves are going to encounter objects on the ground / landscape sooner, so you’ll get those effects, again though depending on your location relative to the strike.

  25. Just a quick comment about school so far.

    What I have witnessed in the first four weeks and what I have heard from other teachers, there is a much more calming, happy, “normal” feeling to this school year. I have been walking out of school at 2:30 very happy!!!! Our campus was a construction zone for more than four years and now our building and grounds are completely finished!

    I don’t want to blink to jinx the situation! :-0

    Someone asked if there were more absences these days and I can honestly say that most students are in school each day. We have students and staff with colds, but we always have that 3-4 weeks into the school year. There have been staff and kids with Covid, but we’re going have to live with that.

    I am curious if my teacher colleagues here are seeing the same things.

    1. Nice to see you here. Always. And what great news for your school. It is not close to that here. But maybe it will get there.

      We all count seconds and divide by five to learn the distance Iod the storm. My kids and grandkids have learned at a relatively young age either counting by fives or dividing by five that way.

    2. I know a few teachers and many parents with kids in school. It’s very similar here in my area.

      There was a small spike in colds (covid included) because basically that happens to start any school year, but it settled quickly after the first 2 weeks.

    1. I’ll always support people’s right to protest, whether I support the cause or not, but I will never support blocking traffic. Never. It’s the stupidest protest tactic outside of violence.

      1. I sure do agree.

        Last time a group blocked a MA highway, a victim of a car accident with a serious spinal injury could not get to one of the hospitals that was qualified.

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