Thursday September 22 2022 Forecast (7:12AM)

92 Comments

The final hours of summer roll by appropriately with higher humidity and showers with a chance of thunderstorms today as a cold front approaches and moves into the region. This front is not moving all that quickly so the shower threat will last well into afternoon, especially for eastern and southeastern areas, where I’m expecting the heaviest rain amounts – greatest chance of over 1 inch being south of Boston (RI and southeastern MA). The front pushes through by evening and just in time for the autumnal equinox (9:04 p.m.) in comes the coolest air mass we have experienced since last spring, along with a gusty wind, especially during Friday, although breezy conditions continue into Saturday despite a little temperature recovery after a chilly start to the day. It’ll turn milder still on Sunday as the Canadian high pressure area that brings us the beginning-of-autumn chill slides off to the south and we get the return flow on the other side of it. So all in all it will be quite a nice first weekend of autumn for us. Reminder that larger ocean swells associated with Hurricane Fiona are already impacting the South Coast and will expand to include more of the region through Friday and the start of the weekend as the storm passes just west of Bermuda then accelerates toward the Canadian Maritimes, where they will see a powerful storm as it becomes extratropical and hits them. Rough surf generated by the passing storm in addition to the long period swells will impact our coast especially Friday into Saturday before easing. Monday’s weather looks a bit unsettled here as a trough arrives from the west.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy until late day with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, some producing heavy rainfall, tapering off west northwest to east southeast late in the day but probably lasting into evening Cape Cod. Sun may appear especially west and north of Boston for a nice sunset there. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day from west to east across the area.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Unsettled weather early in the period as a trough passes by followed by a shot of chilly and dry air, then continued dry with moderating temperatures toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

We’ll watch during this period for at least remnant moisture from a tropical system to the south which has a long way to go before it ever has a chance to impact us, giving plenty of time in this area to watch what effects, if any, it may have. Otherwise the period likely starts and ends dry and mild, pending the timing of the aforementioned system or remnants of it.

92 thoughts on “Thursday September 22 2022 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  14. Thunder started rumbling a bit ago with a good amount of lightning. It seems to be picking up now …both thunder and rain

    I like the kind of storm where there are occasional loud claps of thunder and vivid bolts of lightning but in between the lower and steadier rumbling doesn’t seem to stop

    0.25 so far.

  15. The activity appears to be rocketing Eastward.

    Lightening only 10-15 miles to my West. Should be hearing thunder shortly.

  16. Some tweets concerning Nova Scotia. The terms historic , rare and others are not uncommon. That is from meteorologists and not media.

    https://twitter.com/eccc_chc/status/1572920691137155073?s=21&t=IFYMR7VSeYa-7710Rt59Bg

    The pressure may be below that of the 1938 hurricane while lowest recorded in Canada is 940

    https://twitter.com/dhtheweathernut/status/1572754084167294978?s=21&t=19FsYnRxsxtKiDkIW7yvdQ

    https://twitter.com/billkarins/status/1572708941943164929?s=21&t=19FsYnRxsxtKiDkIW7yvdQ

      1. And raining as well. NO downpours, just steady light rain.
        I am under orange on radar, but what is reaching the ground so far is NOT impressive at all.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    Storm came through here about 15 or 20 mins. ago. Has been dark here since sunrise (no sun of course). We’ve had loud claps of thunder and frequent lightning w/heavy rain. No wind. Storm moved through rather quickly but can still hear thunder off to the east. Still raining here. Actually, still some lightning occurring.

  23. Thanks TK.

    Heavy rain with occasional thunder. Hopefully a truly “all day” rain for today. It would be good to see a cleaner Drought Monitor Map for a change with no more deep reds and oranges.

    1. This is not an all day rain. This moves through swiftly followed by a break before perhaps one final band of rain pushes through mid afternoon. Every little bit of rain helps but this won’t be a major drought buster.

    2. This will knock out down bit still won’t end it. That takes place in steps.

      The good news: we’re stepping.

    1. Another similar batch is on its heels. Should be in your area in a couple of hours. Hopefully, we can eek out another half inch.

  26. No thunder here with this round. And it is brighter. 0.86 “ and 31 lightning strikes under 7 miles from first round

    1. maybe saying that the trof is north of the great Lakes is not fully accurate, but I think everyone can see it 🙂 🙂 🙂

  29. Just had another burst of heavy rain and wind here at the office in Manchester CT.

    As of 10am back at the house I had received just shy of 0.60” of rain from round 1 and was up to 5” on the month. We’ll see how much more round 2 added when I get back.

  30. Winter, or at least a prelude to winter, is starting to set in in parts of Siberia. As I’ve mentioned before, large swaths of Russia have had a cooler than normal summer. The pattern there continues across a good portion of the country into autumn. Here, you’ll see how people are dressed for the cool/cold conditions in Yakutsk, Russia (it’s 30F there right now – it’s evening). Many of the men you see in this video are being mobilized to go to war in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1572868537886064640

  31. Thanks, TK!

    Some heavy, training rain down here in the South Coast and vicinity! School dismissal should be fun in about 20 minutes!!!

  32. I’m kind of surprised Fiona still had a pressure in the high 930s this morning, as I felt the southwest quadrant of the storm looked ragged with little outflow.

    Last few hours though, that southwest quadrant and the eye itself looks better.

    I think it may be headed sub 930 mb by tonight and hopefully not sub 920 mb.

  34. 12z Euro at hr 144.

    I’m watching its 500 mb flow and the way its carving out the eastern trof, as well as the position it has the hurricane at. Wonder if its going to create something epic for the northeast ??

      1. Did JP Dave hack your user account today? 😉 hahahaha!
        Oh wait, he would only be disappointed if that was a snow threat. 😛

  35. I have a little tradition with Nate. We walk in the Middlesex Fells woods every solstice, equinox, and every date that falls exactly between 2 of them. Today is the A.E., so off we go, rain or shine. Only lightning would stop this, and that threat has passed for my area.

    Also, some areas may see a very impressive sunset this evening. Be on the look-out for that. You’ll be able to tell it’s going to happen about 1/2 hour ahead of time if you’re in a lucky area.

  36. Steady as she goes on Fiona. West of Bermuda, but big enough that the island gets gusts in the hurricane-force vicinity. They’ll be ok there. They handle these relatively well.

    Extratropical and still very strong when it gets to the Maritimes. They’ll have seen worse in the past, but this is going to be no joke for areas that get whacked. Even though some of their winter storms can produce winds just as strong and even stronger, the difference between then and now is leafed out trees and soft ground make trees more vulnerable than bare trees and frozen ground, so a lot of power outages and tree damage will occur up that way.

    1. The HWRF is designed for tropical models. It is extremely unreliable with extratropical ones, as Fiona will be at that time. It also initialized 5 mb too strong, so it’s suspect to begin with.

      1. I pray it does not develop as fearec. I applaud the Mets in that area that I follow for recognizing its potential but wisely using the words could or possible. Etc. most of all I applaud their advance caution. Knowing the area and if they are correct, residents have time to prepare. If it weekend, no harm is done.

        Hugo and Katrina come to mind. There was a lot of question as to whether they’d be as strong as forecast. One area handled the warnings exceptionally well. Another did not.

          1. Please read my comment. I’m not comparing storms. I never was. I was referring to the importance of warnings that then permit proper preparation and the important part meteorologists play along with of course local officials

            As my father in law (from his retirement home in Mt Pleasant SC) and I watched lack of prep in New Orleans, we knew it would be a disaster. And it was.

            Yes it weakened. Moot point really because over 1,000 still died in New Orleans because of lack of preparation and a disastrous evacuation plan. Less than 40 died in Charleston because preparation and evacuation were exceptional. I actually hear just one was directly attributed to Hugo but have also seen 30 some.

            I think the disconnect here is what I mentioned a few days ago and TK agreed with. To simply consider meteorological terms is risky. If we rely only on numbers, it increases the chances of a dangerous outcome

            Sak I appreciate your input but think we’ve taken up enough space. I will never agree that if a storm looks better on paper it causes less harm. Hundred more were killed in New Orleans than Charleston I’m hoping that every met understands that.

        2. Yes, residents were not properly prepared for Katrina, but it isn’t a good example, because it did weaken considerably before landfall. When it was heading towards New Orleans, it was a Category 5 with 150 mph winds and a pressure of 902, and the media was hyping it up as the worst storm to ever hit the US. In reality, it was a Category 3 when it crossed extreme SE Louisiana with a pressure of 920 mb and winds of 130 mph, and also when it made it’s eventual landfall near the LA/MS border, with a pressure of 928mb and winds of 125 mph. Yes, still a rather potent storm that did unbelievable damage, but in meteorological terms, nowhere near what it was hyped up to be.

  38. As I mentioned last night, don’t be surprised if the wave just moving off of Africa develops first and becomes Hermine, while the system in the Caribbean takes its time and possibly becomes Ian.

    As for the Caribbean system, ignore ALL model solutions for it right now. It’s still rather disorganized, and until it actually is a more organized system, all of the models will not handle it properly, and you’ll likely get a variety of forecasts from the models, as is evidenced by the radically different solution the ECMWF came out with this afternoon.

    1. I have never seen a ship viewer. My friend shares her airplane one all the time with me. That’s pretty fascinating. Yup, a bit of a gamble for that one for sure, but I think they will be able to get into a position they can handle it. Still risky though…

      1. Cool. We used both plane and ship apps …ship when in Humarock. Not sure I’d this is the same but they are VERY cool. And now I want to go back to hum 🙁

    1. 1.12” the final total here in Coventry and up to 5.51” on the month. And…we have had nearly 10” now since the start of August! Quite the turn of events here.

    1. Ugh, hopefully those horses know what to do after weathering lots of winter nor’easters but this is a bit extreme even for them.

    1. Once again, until there is an actual low-level center, ALL guidance is not to be trusted. None of the models will initialize it properly because there is nothing to initialize it with.

      This is similar to winter storms. The models never handle them properly until they move into the West Coast and thus the upper-air network. Without actual data to start, I wouldn’t trust any model solution at this point.

      Western Florida may be in the crosshairs right now, but earlier runs had the central Gulf Coast in the crosshairs. Some models have it cross Cuba and cross the Bahamas. Some go toward Texas or Louisiana. Some don’t even develop it. Until there is a center, you’ll keep getting almost any solution you can think of.

    1. Thanks! I like this weekend’s weather. First visit to the farm for cider donuts if I can actually find the time to go……

  50. With the understanding that language like this must be reserved for truly exceptional circumstances…

    Fiona is going to be a generational storm for parts of Atlantic Canada. Likely to be completely unprecedented in intensity. I know very little about the geography, population density, and general preparedness of that area, so can’t really comment on what the impacts will be, though I can’t imagine they will be good. But meteorologically? This will blow anything they’ve ever seen out of the water. For that latitude, will have the lowest SLP (by a country mile), strongest winds, most overall energy, and will basically be the all around most powerful cyclone that this planet is capable of producing from a total energy perspective. Just wait until you see the satellite tomorrow night.

    It’s a similar evolution to Sandy in terms of a tropical cyclone warm seclusion as it is captured by a trough. But this will be a beefed up version with a considerably stronger storm to start with and stronger baroclinic forcing.

    Certainly hoping for the best for all in the path.

    1. Worth noting, you will see the maximum wind intensity start to gradually come down in the NHC advisories. But as we saw with Sandy, what’s far more important will be the enormous expansion of hurricane force wind radii that you will also see. The Saffir Simpson scale, which even for “normal” tropical cyclones is often not a great metric of overall intensity, completely breaks down in a situation like this.

    2. Thanks WxW. Similar to Sandy in terms of what you noted, but similar to a more “typical” storm in terms of track and acceleration, which combined gives it a better chance of a shorter-lived but harder-hitting impact.

      Hoping for the best as well for those in the path.

      Thank you as always for your input. 🙂

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