Friday September 23 2022 Forecast (7:17AM)

87 Comments

First, Fiona. I mention this storm before getting to our sensible weather because firstly, its impact on our region in the form of high swells and rough surf will peak today, tonight, and early Saturday, so anybody with plans to be at the shore or in the coastal waters should take note of this. Also, Fiona remains a powerful hurricane, and while it will be weakening gradually and making its transition to post-tropical while motoring toward southeastern Canada, it’s going to strike that region as a very powerful storm. In fact, the transition to post-tropical only helps the wind field expand, even if the overall intensity is coming down. It’s starting at such a high intensity with not much time to go before arriving there, that it will only weaken so much, down to that of about a category 3 hurricane. While Fiona will not be a tremendous rain producer due to its rapid movement, it will be a wind machine and still produce considerable coastal storm surge. Eastern Nova Scotia, P.E.I., and western Newfoundland will be most impacted. Later in the storm’s life, it may produce some snow further north! Back here at home we’re now into our coolest air mass in quite a while, and obviously the coolest air mass of meteorological fall and definitely astronomical fall, which just started hours ago (last evening). Both today and Saturday will feature sun but a share of passing clouds too, especially today, below normal temperatures, and a gusty wind, though the wind should settle down a little bit tonight as the air becomes less mixed and may not be as gusty Saturday as it ends up today. The Canadian high pressure area delivering this air to us will sink to the south and allow us to warm up a little bit Sunday after a chilly start. While I still expect Sunday to be largely rain-free, I do expect clouds to become dominant before the day is over in advance of an approaching trough of low pressure, which will bring us unsettled weather early next week – though not looking like a significant rain producer at this time.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts to near and even over 30 MPH at times.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

At the moment I am keeping my outlook of mainly dry weather, a shot of chilly air to start, followed by a moderating trend in temperature later in the period. Wildcard: What goes on in the tropics and how it translates to any possible direct or indirect impact as early as the first days of October. It’s first important to note that medium range guidance is to be taken only as a rough idea, especially when there is no actual low center to initialize on the guidance, and for our newly formed tropical depression in the southern Caribbean, this is just going to start to be the case as of today. Previous runs, including the last set with no low to initialize, still show considerable spread in solutions regarding the eventual hurricane’s impact on the US. These variations can still be present as well after a low forms, but you have a better chance of a better-performing model having a better solution for the system in question. Applying meteorology might then help you decide which piece(s) if guidance show a more realistic possible outcome. So one step forward today with a low center, but still take the guidance lightly if scrutinizing each run. Watch for trends rather than scrutinizing details beyond a few forecast panels.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High degree of uncertainty again for this forecast period given the unknown outcome of a tropical cyclone that itself, or the remains of, may eventually impact our region. Whatever happens, we may see quite a shot of chilly air again behind any departing system as the overall pattern may very well favor this again. Long way to go to refine and detail this outlook…

87 thoughts on “Friday September 23 2022 Forecast (7:17AM)”

      1. In any case, they have been at tropical storm force since about 1 am and have been climbing through that category for sustained winds and have experienced hurricane force gusts the last few hours.

      1. It’s not official until the daily “quality control” by NCDC. You may have missed the reply yesterday that ASOS failed around 10 a.m. at which time the precipitation sensor failed and remained off for the remainder of the event. So ignore that Bedford amount until it’s corrected.

        Check the state temp & precip table later this morning. That MAY have the correct info, and if not, we’ll find out after that.

  6. WxWatcher, thank you for your posts late on yesterdays blog. I was hoping they’d be brought forward. Both are exceptional.

  7. Tk and anyone else, I have seen the comment a few times that a hurricane’s left turn is not good. My wording. Sandy was and now it appears Fiona will be. Why is that?

        1. Thanks Vicki and yes agreed it has been well forecasted well in advance. Given the speed it will be traveling conditions will deteriorate in a hurry.

  12. At least at flight level, the eastern quadrant of Fiona has its strongest winds yet per the recon plane’s last pass through several minutes ago.

  15. We’ve just made an offer on a bigger sailboat which is currently located in Venice, Fla. south of Fort Myers. The pre- purchase inspection/survey of the boat is next Tuesday, October 4th and we’ve just now become aware of TD 9, which has a cone/track that is pointed directly at southwest Florida. We’re trying not to panic…

    What is the thinking on this system here at WHW?

    1. Too early for exact track.
      I won’t lie and tell you there’s no threat.
      But I will say there’s a fair chance it’s not a huge impact, wind-wise. I’ll get into that in an upcoming post.

    1. That system would likely be accompanied by and embedded in an air mass that would overwhelm that drier air.

  19. Re: Cape Breton evacuations:

    I haven’t found any mandatory evacuations in any online stories.

    For flood, the coastline is rather steep from highway to the ocean on the whole west side of the island (Cabot Trail), so there’s really no one to evacuate from there. The one exception might be Cheticamp Island that is low lying and will have one heck of a surge when the storm passes by and the winds howl from the SW, then W and NW.

    Kind of the same on the east and north side, where its steep right to the ocean. A few exceptions would be near St Peters and Lingan where there are a few low lying areas.

    The one area I am fascinated by is the Canso Causeway, which connects the island to mainland Nova Scotia. Its got a narrow Atlantic Inlet to its east and a bigger Inlet to its west from the Northumberland Strait. I wonder if that will temporarily submerge from the Atlantic side ahead of the storm, then again temporarily from the Northumberland strait after the winds pass by.

    1. Thank you, Tom. I was thinking wind more than flooding but this all makes sense. When we rented in Antigonish (which I still cannot pronounce) the home was on the bay but it and others were set well back. I don’t know if that is typical. I do recall driving over the causeway. I did see lists of shelters but suspect that would be for folks struggling with loss of power etc post storm. Or some who felt in danger. I know you are very familiar with the area and sure appreciate your input.

  20. I’m ever-so-slightly encouraged this afternoon by some negative forces getting set to act on Fiona that may weaken it a bit more than forecast. But make no mistake, the eastern NS and PEI areas will be whacked yard by the post-tropical version of the storm.

    But this is not just a switch-flip. And going post tropical doesn’t make it less dangerous when it’s already a powerhouse. It just changes the details of the character of the storm. Expanding wind field, for one example.

    Will Fiona be the “strongest ever”? I really don’t like that term. We don’t know if there were stronger storms before we were able to measure them accurately. You cannot just assume there were not. But, that said, it doesn’t matter so much in the present, especially given population and location of property “now” relative to “back then”. The stuff is there to damage. Nature is going to take liberties with it. So I hope that where evacuations are needed they are done efficiently and adequately, and we will wait and see what the results of the event are.

    UPDATE: Hermine has been born off the coast of Africa. The southern Caribbean one will get the name Ian, and soon. Hermine will be rather short-lived, while her brother has a much longer life ahead.

    Have a good afternoon & weekend! I’m going to the coast for high tide tonight. I’ll try to check in when I can…

    1. Just updated that. It came out literally 30 seconds after I hit send on my original post, which I wrote at 3:30 and never posted until just now. Mom had an errand I had to take her on..haha.

    1. Thank you. I watched and bookmarked.

      It was 2006 when we were in antigonish. We were sitting in a restaurant that we were told not to miss. A tv was showing weather. It was Pete and JR from whdh Boston. 🙂 🙂

  23. Re: BED rainfall.
    Didn’t see a corrected update anywhere.
    A reasonable estimate is around 1 inch, maybe a little over.

  24. Amusing useless info: Lady Gaga has money in the Massachusetts State Treasury she could claim on findmassmoney.com. True story. 😉

    1. Whenever someone uses the phrase “useless information” I’m reminded of this stanza:

      “When I’m driving in my car
      When a man come on the radio
      He’s telling me more and more
      About some useless information
      Supposed to fire my imagination”

      And, I must say, though this useless information didn’t “fire my imagination” I am curious, nonetheless.

  25. It’s 57. Do id a glorious 36. I rarely use more than a sweatshirt year round, but I may need a light jacket. The wind is icy. I love it this weather. I want to start my small propane fire pit but am not sure what the wind would do to it

    1. I’ve got my long-sleeved Boston Bruins shirt on, and then when I go outside I put on a light leather jacket. It’s glorious. I’m not religious, but I am thanking God every moment I can, especially for the lower dewpoint.

      I did see something very strange this morning, however. A local landscaping crew’s Ford F-150 already had its snow plow on! That’s a good 7 weeks too soon. It also looked odd. It’s probably not economical, either, in terms of gas mileage.

      1. There’s a guy in my neighborhood who has his on already, but with him it seems to be an annual thing. 🙂

    2. I might need an extra layer at the football field this evening while I do photos for the local pages! And then to the coast for high tide. I am loving this weather though. 🙂

  29. Philip (and anyone else interested)…
    The rainfall report for Lexington (just a handful of miles away from Hanscom in Bedford) was 1.26 inch for yesterday. It’s pretty safe to assume that Bedford’s rainfall was in the 1.00 to 1.30 range. 🙂 So there we have it…

      1. Oh my. I did see the customer number earlier but I didn’t think they’d be losing power already. Thank you SClarke

    2. Yep… like I mentioned last night, this is not in the same league as any cyclone we’ve observed in that area before. TK earlier makes a good point in that there is certainly a very long history before we were making detailed weather observations. So I don’t like to use the word “ever”. But at the same time, we’ve been around long enough that “on record” is still a highly meaningful designation, and this will be the worst storm on record for that area by a large margin.

      1. Exceptional post as always WxWatcher. You are correct that we certainly have enough history.

        TK was right. With a deep history, what we had before records doesn’t matter. However, what we are seeing now matters enough to understand that we are seeing far too many extremes in a short span of time to not understand that our globe is in serious trouble.

  35. TK – Will Fiona make it to Greenland and eventually the North Pole as a full fledged blizzard? Do some tropical systems do that under the right conditions?

    I would be curious as to how much snow gets involved for Atlantic Canada. Is there enough cold air up there this time of year?

  36. TK – If it wasn’t for that strong cold front yesterday, would Fiona have slammed into SNE and the Cape from due southeast? A scary scenario to say the least.

    1. Well, not necessarily. We’d have needed a fairly different set-up on the larger scale. Without the front, it still probably would have passed well out to sea, unless we had a vastly different upper level configuration.

    1. Quite the whack up there…

      I was at the sea wall near Lynn / Swampscott late last night. I’ve seen much better, but there were some good swells coming in. You have to move to different spots on that spot of coast to find the best spot for each given situation because of how the directions vary so quickly over short distances.

Comments are closed.