Sunday September 25 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)

73 Comments

A warm front approaching today will fill the sky with far more clouds than we saw yesterday, when you had to look really hard to find one. We’ve lost some of our wind, and we will definitely be a bit milder today as well. As for the front itself, it’s approach and passage may help trigger a couple patches of light rain mainly well west and north of Boston later today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can develop before the end of the day mainly south of I-90, but this is a very low chance. There is a slightly better chance of these occurring, although still rather isolated, during tonight. And while this is not going to end up as some “outbreak”, a couple storms that can form have the ability to become strong, so keep an eye out for that. Monday and Tuesday a trough of low pressure will be to our west, and we’ll be in a southwesterly air flow of mild air. The only shot of rainfall is from a possible passing shower west to east across the region late in the day Monday. This trough will push further east and move to a position east of our region by midweek when we remain dry, but with a cool-down.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix, clouds eventually winning out. A patch of light rain may visit some areas well west and north of Boston by later in the day and an isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop south of I-90 as well. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy including periods of sun. A passing shower is possible late in the day mainly west of the I-95 belt. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible early in the I-95 belt eastward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 64-71. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Dry and seasonably cool weather expected for the final day of September with high pressure in control. The remainder of the forecast hinges largely on what happens with TS / Hurricane Ian in the Gulf of Mexico and after a landfall. The scenario I lean toward right now is for high pressure to hang on with dry weather and seasonable to milder temperatures for the October 1-2 weekend, the remains of Ian staying to our southwest and south October 3-4 while the jet stream brings a system in from the west with finally a chance of wet weather by the end of the period. This is very low confidence. Please check back for updates on this.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Not a high confidence forecast again based on the uncertainty that precedes it, but leaning toward a dry pattern and variable temperatures including another shot or 2 of very cool air from Canada, which seem to want to visit early this autumn.

73 thoughts on “Sunday September 25 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  1. Repost of write-up from a colleague of mine regarding Ian, and its potential to weaken considerably before landfall (which is good news in terms of wind potential and an example of applied meteorology – which is actually science being used).

    NOTE: TUTT stands for Tropical Upper Atmospheric Trough. I learned a lot about these in college.

    ___________________________________________________

    Something seems like it is off. Why is Ian is still struggling
    in the past 24 hr despite low shear, high RH, and 30 C
    SSTs? The 03z NHC discussion noted the circulation is
    elongated.

    I looked at WV loop Saturday and it showed a TUTT over
    the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a classic SW axis and
    dropping/pressing SW with time. So the upper levels
    do not look that good ahead of Ian. So I am wondering
    how the global models are handling this, and the reason
    why the UKMET is the weakest of the 4 global models,
    has me wondering if it might be onto something?

    I have been following the 4 primary global models
    (GFS/ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET) for TC Ian. I’ve noticed for
    the past several runs, the UKMET has had hard time
    making Ian a minimal hurricane. The GGEM and the
    ECMWF are showing a strong Cat 2, and the GFS is very
    intense with a strong Cat 4 in the Gulf of Mexico. Runs
    I looked at were from 12 and 18z Saturday.

    The Gulf of Mexico has been plagued by TUTTs all season
    and obviously it has not changed (no “homegrown” TCs at all). There is unusually dry air
    in the Gulf of Mexico, and there is almost a complete lack of
    convection here and in the NW Caribbean! So empirically,
    things are “off” to me, for the lack of a better term. It’s
    been such a bizarre ATLC TC season, nothing would
    surprise me.

    But the above model differences may be moot as to Ian’s
    landfall.

    Something very interesting I am seeing on some of
    the models. Ian gets very intense on the GFS, and NHC
    explicitly forecasts RI w/ a peaking at 120 kt. Given the
    931 mb 24/18z GFS fcst, it could be close to a Cat 5. The track
    is trending farther W with a landfall in the central or eastern FL
    Panhandle. However, the GFS op runs all along have shown
    rapid weakening before landfall from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 in
    just 36 hr leading up to landfall. The GGEM supports this but
    the weakening is as dramatic since it does not get Ian nearly as
    strong as the GFS.

    The 24/18z GFS shows a 50 mb weakening
    in 36 hr!

    Here is the 25/00z SHIPS output for Ian. Take note of the forecast
    shear and 700-500 mb RH fields:
    https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2022/al092022/stext/22092500AL0922_ships.txt

    Look at what happens at 72 hr. A sig rise in shear and 700-500
    RH drops below 70%. By 96 hr the shear is quite strong (S at 36 kt)
    and the RH has fallen below 60%. Yet Ian is still offshore and not
    moving very fast. I don’t care how intense a TC is, 30+ kt of shear
    will impact it severely.

    So the rapid weakening shown the GFS and the GGEM to a lesser
    extent is not coming out of nowhere.

    Look at the 25/03z NHC fcst. 115 kt to 80 kt just 24 hr 96 to 120 hr
    (and Ian is still just offshore at 120 hr)???

    INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
    24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
    36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
    48H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
    60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH…OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA
    72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W 120 KT 140 MPH…OVER WATER
    96H 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
    120H 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

    I don’t think I have ever seen a NHC forecast quite like this
    for a TC in the Gulf of Mexico yet to make landfall.

    Now if this was late Oct or Nov, I could see a hurricane weaken
    this fast while still in the Gulf of Mexico, but it is still Sep, and
    the GOMEX is typically primed for intense TCs all the way to
    landfall. There has been so much talk about RI with TC before
    landfall, but there is *nothing* that says that it can’t do the
    opposite, and the fact it does this in Sep would be way out of
    whack for climo.
    ______________________________________________________

    2. I will repost:

      Not to mention Gulf temps 85-90F. The Ch. 7 met mentioned that range last evening that would aid intensification.

  4. Thanks TK.

    I can understand the low confidence but I’m somewhat surprised that you’re not giving Ian’s remnants much of a chance of bringing some beneficial rains up this way next weekend. Is the Canadian flow going to be more dominant?

    1. A very plausible scenario is that the stuff goes south of us. Shouldn’t surprise you. 🙂

      As I stated, if the storm doesn’t have the right timing, the westerly flow present to the north can easily make sure we don’t see any rain from it. It’s very possible.

      A tropical cyclone making landfall in the southeastern US / Gulf of Mexico does not have an automatic translation to beneficial rain for the Northeast. There are many, many instances where we are left high and dry by these.

  9. Thanks TK !

    Yes, that rapid weakening has been noteworthy and consistent on the models as Ian would be approaching landfall.

    It would be approaching such low humidities so far south that are very anomalous from a 500mb flow that would be hostile as well. So, pummeling the hurricane at both low and higher levels.

  10. It was after I read this tweet from Ryan Hanrahan on Friday I said Sunday could be a day to watch the radar and see if anything develops. Here is that tweet.

    Overall the weekend looks great. That said, there’s the potential for a few strong/severe storms Sunday evening particularly along the warm front. We’ll be watching it for you

    1. Wow. Those photos could just as easily be identified as from PR. Obviously the Canadian government much more stable so recovery should be much sooner rather than later.

      2. The recovery will be rapid compared to PR.
        They’ll get right on it with no corruption of money direction.
        PR is a mess. Sad.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    Sunrise this morning was amazing. Mx of gray clouds and red sky with a blazing red sun. Saw this from our windows looking to the south east. Also, noticed on NWS radar what looks like smoke pouring our way from southwest. Why aren’t mets mentioning the smoke we have been having lately? Wind has picked up around here and sun trying to come out.

  19. 12z GFS vs 00z seems to be bringing Ian north slightly quickly past Cuba.

    Will that send it further east since the trof may not have lifted out ?

  20. NHC update continuing the trend of what my colleague talked about. Down to a category one BEFORE landfall. We can hope this is exactly what takes place. Also, not moving that fast, which isn’t great as far as heavy rain is concerned, but is better a far as storm surge and wind damage on the right flank of the storm is concerned. There’s no perfect scenario here, but when you can see that this thing may not be as bad as some of these can be, it’s at least slightly encouraging.

  23. I was happy to see Dave Epstein today. At the end of the early morning forecast it was classic Dave E. Paraphrasing:
    “Let me step out of the way so you can see the 7-day. It’s probably what you’re most interested in anyway.”

  24. Thanks TK! And thanks for posting your colleague’s discussion above.

    Ian’s struggles today aren’t too surprising to me, and while it did probably ingest some dry air last night, I think it’s more to do with internal factors that have kept a lid on it so far. I mentioned yesterday that it had some major structural issues it had to work out. Despite its lack of organized convection, it’s apparent, especially in visible satellite, that its circulation is far better defined today than yesterday. It now has an internal structure which will promote a near certain period of rapid intensification within the next 48 hours. I would look for late tonight into tomorrow (basically in line with the NHC forecast) for that rapid intensification to begin, with a Category 4+ storm likely by Tuesday. It’ll be pretty spectacular to watch the intensification occur; there’s a storied history of similar storms doing so in that region. Ian will join them.

    But the weakening on the back end is probably not being given the attention it deserves. I agree with all the points made in the discussion TK posted. It’s tricky from a messaging perspective. Any time you have a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, it’s a *serious* deal. And it’s incumbent upon the NHC/NWS to ensure that the reasonable worst case scenario is clearly communicated. But right now, on balance, the messaging doesn’t seem to align with the forecast. It’s being messaged as a likely major hurricane strike, but the actual forecast is a weakening Cat 1, and there doesn’t seem to be any attention surrounding that. I do think, especially in recent years and not just with tropical events, that a stigma has developed around discussing potential mitigating factors, and I don’t like that. And even though it will become a very dangerous storm for a time, I have a feeling Ian ~probably~ isn’t going to be all that bad of a storm for the US, despite the frenzy of attention surrounding it.

    One caveat: If Ian ends up recurving east sooner, the higher shear and dry air wouldn’t have much time to go to work on it, and you could still get a major hurricane landfall on the western FL peninsula. But if it tracks more towards the Panhandle, I would expect significant weakening before landfall.

      1. I have other things to do on a Sunday afternoon than watch a piss-poor performance. I can’t stand that and I would feel like
        I wasted an entire afternoon. )(#$(&@()#%&*)(@#&)(%*)(#%*

        I wouldn’t mind them losing a close game, but after the 1/2 it got away from them in a HURRY!!!!

  27. Gfs, euro and now 18z hurricane tracks with a shift east today.

    Environment will be better if Ian goes further east. Perhaps less weakening on approach to Florida coast.

  29. Both GFS & GEM are largely misses for Ian rain up here. GFS a complete miss. GEM a scrape South Coast. ECMWF is wetter.

  32. GFS also consistent in big overrunning rains in the Carolinas well ahead of Ian, as warm humid air over the Atlantic overruns cooler drier air having been in place. A secondary max rain area for sure.

  35. NHC 5pm Ian pressure : 1003 mb

    First recon plane pass of the center has a decent pressure drop, but the winds have not responded yet.

    1. Looks close to 990mb, that’s a massive drop, despite the lack of convective organization. Rapid intensification is imminent.

  36. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_00z.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_00z.png

    I’d be worried in tampa.

    Why?

    The pasta that goes near or over Tampa landfalls around 72hrs. All the intensity projections are around cat 3 at hr 72.

    The remaining pasta, in the far eastern panhandle are at cat 1 at 96 hrs or so.

    Eastern shift today and a bit better retention of strength would be what I think has happened today for projections.

  37. How far east the tropical storm and hurricane force wind fields extend when this thing moves up the Florida coast will be so crucial to coastal tidal flooding.

    Also will be slowing its forward speed down some, so could impact a few high tide cycles.

  38. Not going to be totally surprised if Ian hangs west of Florida for 1 or even 2 extra days (from current forecasts) and ingests a ton of dry air from the north and is down to a minimal hurricane before ever fully reaching land. Semi-long shot, but again a possible outcome that would be better than what we often see with Gulf of Mexico tropicals.

  39. I am thinking the existing thunderstorms in far southern CT and Long Island will drift up across southeastern CT, southern RI, and southeastern MA over the next several hours, and while there is still the chance of some isolated severe weather, I think we’ll get by this one in relatively fine shape based on current trends and short-range guidance.

    1. Good news. I do not like severe storms late night. And My guess is someone who shall remain nameless is happier on top of the bed than under it.

    2. Good slug of rain pushing through Westwood as we speak. Moderate rain for the past 20 minutes. Should get a good drink in the tune of a half inch at least.

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