Tuesday September 27 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)

111 Comments

We’re in good shape, weather-wise, in our neck of the woods for the balance of this week. Despite a swath of fairly thick high level clouds that will limit sun this morning in much of our region, a trough to our west will swing through the region without much fanfare through tonight, then head out of here while high pressure builds in through late this week with a cooling trend through Friday before a slight recovery of temperature on Saturday to welcome October.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy morning giving way to more sun this afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

We continue to monitor Hurricane Ian, expected to batter Florida at midweek before moving into the US Southeast and weakening / dissipating later this week. I am still going with the scenario that the moisture from this system does not reach our area and we keep generally dry weather going to finish off the first weekend of October and into early next week, after which there is only a slight chance that some of its rain can sneak into southern areas before being pushed out to sea. A frontal boundary may bring a shower threat and a shot of cool air by the end of the period after a brief warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Overall pattern looks dry with a minor shower threat or two front frontal boundaries passing by and variable temperatures with a couple air mass changes including 1 or 2 cool shots from Canada.

111 thoughts on “Tuesday September 27 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  1. 6z GFS has a rainfall max through Saturday of 52.2″ at Sarasota with 32-42″ around Tampa/St. Pete, 15″ near Orlando, and even 10″ up toward Jacksonville. Yikes.

  4. On the rainfall, I understand a slow moving tropical system on its own can produce massive amts of rainfall.

    Is there added convergence with such a dp contrast not too far north of the center and in addition to the factors above, your adding in an east or SE wind with 75F + dps lifting over drier air trying to squeeze in from the north ????

  7. Thanks TK.

    Ian’s rains would be most beneficial up this way and would likely totally end our drought. At least we’ll have a great weekend thanks to Canada. Oh well. 🙂

    I will try to remember this when high pressure blocks a potential snow event this upcoming winter. 😉

    1. The latter happens fairly frequently. For example, during the winter when the mid Atlantic gets hit hard but we don’t it’s often due to blocking, or high pressure in, say, Northern New England, that shunts low pressure systems to our south. At least this is my rudimentary understanding of it.

  9. Thanks, TK,

    The sailboat for which we signed a purchase and sale agreement last week pre-Ian is located in Venice , FL right about where the M is for 2 am Thursday on the NHC track.

    I’m trying to keep the perspective that the loss of this lovely sailboat which we don’t even own pales in comparison with the loss of life, livelihood and homes that seems imminent.

    That said, how much further west would this storm need to track to spare the Florida peninsula the worst of the effects of Ian?

    The boat broker told us he is evacuating and fully expects to return to an uninhabitable house. He lives in St. Pete. It’s a sobering thought…

    1. Thanks Jimmy for the memories. I don’t know one day from the next as far as weather history is concerned other than the February 6-7 1978 blizzard. I notice that Gloria passed much further west than I thought. No wonder Boston got very little rain (0.25 iirc) but lots of wind. Power was lost in my neighborhood for 12 hours, almost to the minute. Unlike Vicki, I don’t like outages regardless of season so I pay attention to those little details. 😉

      I believe Bob in August 1990 was the last landfall hurricane for MA.

  13. I was watching a weather friend of yours TK who is driving to FL. She was passing several power trucks from different areas. I love her comment that seeing these is one of the best parts of a storm. Not that it is a good thing they have to be there, but that it is an example,e of how we all come together. I felt the same way seeing power company trucks heading to Canada.

    As an aside and I can’t say this too much, she is a perf3ct example of helping others. Years ago when a tornado was headed toward Mac’s sisters in Atlanta, she was texting me to keep me informed and said if it did reach Jenny’s apartment, she send weather folks in the area to check on her. I still get goosebumps and happy tears when repeating this. What a wonderful person

    1. She’s an absolutely wonderful person. I adore her.

      And as an aside she’s a great air hockey player. In 5 tries against her I am 0-5, with an average margin of loss about 4 goals. Haha!

  16. Thanks TK.

    The trends are good for Tampa this morning, but not for the reasons we would’ve thought a day or two ago. Now looks like a landfall south of the city, which will at least spare them the worst of the surge. However, that’s a decidedly less good outcome overall than having it stay west and get shredded would’ve been. Now, a large portion of the FL peninsula will deal with a significant wind, surge, and (perhaps most concerning) devastating freshwater flooding threat.

    Ian’s a big storm too. There’s been some comparisons to Charley from 2004, a devastating storm in its right but over a fairly limited geographic area. Could be a similar track, but Ian is a much larger storm than Charley was.

    1. devastating freshwater flooding threat ….. great point.

      The HRRR and NAM also joining the extremely high rainfall projections.

      Where is all that water going to go ??????

      1. Florida’s no stranger to heavy rain of course, so it takes quite a bit to do any appreciable harm. But if you get a large stripe of 12”+, which seems very much in the cards, yeah, that would be very bad.

      2. Florida does very well with high rainfall compared to many areas. That is a better case scenario than storm surge in a highly populated area.

        1. I believe you, but I am surprised.

          While in south Florida, I did see all the human made waterways to accept water, but they looked bankfull when I was there in late August.

      1. Yep, likely to be several of those as well. Brief and highly localized, but obviously significant to anyone affected, and there’s reason to believe Ian may be an above average tornado producer as tropical cyclones go.

  18. I was watching the 18z HWRF last night and it had the eye at 84W longitude when it was projected up north of Ft Myers.

    The eye just left Cuba at 83.5 W longitude or 30 miles further east down by Cuba !!!!

  21. One other thing about IAN. Where it was projected to make landfall as a cat 1, it now appears that it will landfall at
    a full CAT 3. Big difference!

  23. Would a further south/east track cause Ian to bisect Florida then briefly strengthen over the Atlantic again and threaten the Carolinas with a lot more wind?

    1. It looks like it is expected to move more North rather than
      out in the ocean and up the coast. WE shall see. WHo knows

    2. Yes. At least potentially. The Carolinas are flying under the radar as a target. If the south trend continues, would likely mean a faster storm motion (good news for Florida at least) but creates the possibility of it emerging and restrengthening on the other side. Think of this as following the east edge of the NHC cone. Overall, this would probably be a less bad outcome by way of “spreading out” the impacts and preventing any one location from being completely crushed. But would definitely not be “good” by any means.

      FWIW, paying attention to the ensembles, even a direct threat to the Northeast/mid-Atlantic is not entirely off the table in such a scenario, though is definitely a remote possibility at this stage.

      1. Thank you WxW for your comments and answering a lot of questions here the last few days. Much appreciated. I’ve been trying to check in as much as I can but lots going on so I’m a bit limited! 🙂

    1. Are they really heading south? I can imagine why anyone would head south.

      I looked at the map and the lions share of backup seems to be I-4 E NE. I do see a small pocket of traffic heading south toward port charlotte. Yikes.

      1. I thought some might because a couple days ago, a storm headed NW of Tampa or really NW of Tampa seemed the general concensus and it was South Florida that seemed further away from the core.

  27. Being facetious …… this is a smart hurricane !!

    Northern Gulf going to be hostile, I’m just going to stay further south and east where it isn’t as bad.

    1. My oldest’s in-laws live in Fort Myers. I have no idea what the last system was that went through that area not all that long ago but they did not evacuate

    2. That river extends all the way to Lake Okeechobee. From the Gulf to a point 25 or so miles inland, it is a tidal estuary, so the storm surge will follow it well inland.

  32. Thanks, TK.

    I’ve got my eye on this one because of family travel planned for Thursday, flying to Orlando and driving NE (still inland). What do you think are the chances that this happens?

    1. It wouldn’t surprise if flights were canceled. I was just in Orlando a couple of weeks ago. Both going there and coming home they held flights at their origin due to thunderstorms in the Orlando area. And that was just ordinary thunderstorms…

  35. Evacuating south, if done soon, is not as crazy as it sounds, especially for central and eastern Florida. Far southern Florida will be a lot better off than places in central Florida. My boss has a daughter living in Orlando. He told her to head to Miami. If you’re in Sarasota/Tampa, than forget it, head north, as conditions are already deteriorating in SW Florid.

    1. Makes sense. Is Orlando evacuating or is she being proactive? Disney was voluntarily evacuating guests from fort wilderness last I heard. I don’t know if it has increased evacuations, but it believes Disney is a safe place to stay during hurricanes. I believe it did close hotels so evacuees could not hunker down there

      The west coast folks will be clogging roads, hotels and shelters north of Orlando. It was Tampa folks heading south that I was referring to and I’d include areas in the risk area along west coasts Although as I said, the traffic map oddly showed a traffic snarl heading south from Sarasota to port charlotte. But that area no longer shows traffic so it coild easily have been an every day accident.

  37. A couple ongoing tornado warnings in SW FL. I agree with WxW that we will likely see quite a few tornadoes associated with Ian. The atmosphere supports it, and the track is such that the southern and central parts of the state will be in a vulnerable area for them.

    Thankfully, as previously mentioned, hurricane-spawned tornadoes are often brief and weak, however they can still cause some significant damage in the (usually) very small areas they impact.

    Having a larger, longer-tracked tornado spawned by a hurricane, even a powerful hurricane, is very rare.

  40. Thanks, TK…

    My college roommate and best friend lives just south of Siesta Key on a little finger of land. Here’s a Google Map shot of where he lives:

    https://imgur.com/j4Mj5Ho

    The coast is a block away from his home as shown by this photo I took in 2014:

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/MLueRvmqdEwstMhX7

    He and his wife have evacuated to Pompano Beach.

    My cousin and family live in Bradenton. I am going to try to get news on them tonight from my aunt.

    I fear for both of them.

    Here’s hoping and praying for a change in the forecast, not wishing destruction on anyone else, of course.

  42. I accidentally put this on the Covid page

    Correction. My daughters in-laws live in Naples.

    My youngest and her husband have teo close friends who live in Tampa and are not evacuating. They and several other friends in the area have said the ocean has been so still and there are absolutely no birds to be seen. Nature is absolutely amazing, isn’t it

    1. What does a double eye wall mean? I can’t help but think it doesn’t mean anything good but hope I’m wrong

    1. Thank you for this video. In addition to people And birds and ocean, I’m heating crickets, etc are quiet. It leaves me in awe.

  45. Ian is in the midst, and by the looks of it, late stages, of an eyewall replacement cycle. That’s the reason behind the double eyewall structure that Tom noticed. Basically, an outer eyewall develops, chokes off the inner eyewall, and becomes the new dominant eyewall. A highly complex, poorly understood, but very common process. The result is almost always a decrease in maximum wind speed, which may be temporary or permanent, and an expansion of the storm’s wind field.

    What does it mean for Ian? There’s a good chance that it’s current maximum winds are somewhat (~10-25mph) lower than the 120mph currently advertised by NHC. However, its wind field has also expanded. A question will be whether the maximum winds come back up as the new eyewall contracts, or if the onset of dry air and shear, which is happening now, will prevent that. It’s hard to say, but if I had to guess, there’s a reasonable chance that Ian has peaked in intensity in terms of max wind.

    Overall, this all likely won’t have a huge bearing on the final outcome. But in general I’m encouraged by the trends today. Bearing in mind that there’s no “good” outcome, a faster, more south-tracking, and potentially slightly weaker (wind-wise) storm is on the less bad end of the spectrum.

  46. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_00z.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_00z.png

    00z info in early this evening.

    Two observations:

    1) Landfall now possibly in only 24 hrs and most intensity projections are from a cat 1 to cat 2/3.

    2) possible reemergence over the Atlantic and in the intensity projections, there is a hint of not weakening around hr 60. Maintaining whatever strength it has back over water before a 2nd landfall in the Southeast.

    However, even though pressure may only be around 990mb at 2nd landfall on Atlantic side, because a strong high will be building over New England, the pressure gradient the 2 will make for a large area of windy, gusty conditions along a good part of the east coast.

  47. FAU in Boca has closed for tomorrow and they are going to evaluate for Thursday later on.

    Thank goodness the students are being allowed to remain on campus.

    My daughter just got a tornado warning and they asked the students to go to the 1st floor of the building.

    I was trying to assure her that these possible tornados are unit the violent ones in the Midwest, but to follow their recommendations and stay away from the windows.

    Told her there may be other warnings periodically through the night as it looks like there are more lines of storms down by Miami.

    Fun times.

    1. Oh my Tom. This is not a way to start her first year away for your daughter or you. She is blessed to have a dad who understands, can explain and feel reassured.

  50. WOW !!!

    Last pass through the eye wall, on the WEST side had flight level winds a little over 150 mph. Pressure a bit under 940 mb.

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