Wednesday September 28 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)

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An elongated upper level low pressure area which has been to our west slides across the region and to the east of us today through Thursday as high pressure builds in behind it. The upper low doesn’t have enough for any shower activity so it will just produce some clouds at times today, otherwise fair weather continues with a cooling trend through Friday. Meanwhile Hurricane Ian will batter Florida before moving into the US Southeast and weakening. The big question for our area is whether or not the moisture from that system will ever make it here. It will do so in the form of high clouds at times during the first weekend of October, but for now the overall idea seems to be that the rain will stay well to the south as high pressure remains too strong to allow the system to move far enough north.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Early next week would be the best chance for any remnant rain from Ian to make it into the area, but odds do not favor it with continued mainly dry weather, despite some cloudiness and an easterly air flow between the storm’s remnant low pressure area to the south and high pressure to the north. Dry weather with mostly seasonable temperatures follows this but will have to watch for a Canadian cold front to bring a cool shot late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

Overall pattern looks dry. A couple of brief precipitation threats from Canadian cold fronts which will keep temperatures near to below normal.

115 thoughts on “Wednesday September 28 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  4. A hurricane moves into the Southeast, the remains head northward, and we still can’t get any rain from it.

    “When in drought, leave it out”

    1. A guy on a page I visit (not a met.) is convinced we get big rain from this. I tried to explain the scenario where we get nothing – not even a drop. He’s not having it. I left the door open for a touch of light rain to make it to far SNE but the odds are very very against beneficial rain getting this far north. Drought is not over yet.

  5. This will only be limited good news, but the good news is that Ian is actually starting to deteriorate and weaken. This is not going to show up in the final advisories before landfall because of the fear some people would key on the word “weakening” and let guard down. It’s far too powerful a storm to do that, so that part is a bit of a game. Don’t change the wording. But from a meteorological perspective, Ian is not as strong now as it was 12+ hours ago, clearly. The entire eastern eyewall has thinned out big time and the center is not symmetrical. Those are 2 big tell-tale signs. This trend will continue, but it won’t prevent a big impact still.

    2. TK, are you sure ???

      I mean that question with the utmost respect, as you are one of the best meteorologists I have ever encountered.

      1. yes, it took a while for the season to get going, but Fiona really did a number on Cape Breton and unless Ian really deteriorates in the next few hours, another bad outcome in Florida.

    2. Vicki, I noticed some folks responded to the tweet about Tamara Bay stating that the video was not from today. Not sure if it is or it is not. Gotta love social media 🙂

          1. Awesome. I saw there were a lot of warnings last night and thought she may have had a long night. How are you and Mrs Tom?

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022092812&fh=26&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022092812&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    I know its the HRRR. So taken with a grain of salt, it re-intensifies the system, leaving the FL coast at 993mb and has it down to 982mb approaching the Carolinas. Look at the yellows and even dark tans for the projected wind speeds redeveloping off the Carolinas.

    1. I won’t repeat what I said out loud when I clicked in these links but will just go with oh my. Please tell me this is not a likely scenario.

      1. I do know that…or hope that is the case since it’s too soon. Tom was careful to caution also. But since I have friends there…some right on water….and one daughter and family are headed to isle of palms in a few weeks. I’m hoping they have something to head to. Significant is not a good word with the barrier islands as you know.

  13. Unfortunately, Ian’s eyewall replacement completed without dry and air shear having a chance to work into the storm while it was in a vulnerable state. Now, it’s a total buzzsaw. It has definitely not weakened (pressure down to 937mb), and while its intensity is probably now leveling out, a catastrophic landfall of a borderline Category 4/5 hurricane is now certain.

      1. Potentially so, but I think it would be a minimal factor. Ian is a very large storm, and larger hurricanes tend to be more resilient to shear and dry intrusions, as we’ve already seen. Plus, larger storms tend not to weaken as fast anyways because their total momentum is so great. And when it comes to surge, unfortunately that is largely baked in now. So much water has already been displaced, it has to go somewhere, regardless of future fluctuations in Ian’s intensity.

        Keep an eye on Tampa radar though; if you see indications that the eyewall is becoming “open”, that would indicate dry air entering the core and a more rapid rate of weakening. So far, no indications of that, but it could happen.

  16. The situation with Ian is pretty sickening. It actually looks even worse on satellite/radar now than a couple of hours ago. A significant burst of lightning in the eyewall confirms some additional strengthening has probably occurred. That eyewall is just menacing. Hopefully everyone in the path has taken the best actions they can, but the human toll from this will be immense.

    1. 7.42 ft and skyrocketing.

      This is a wide open area, what in the world is going on in the narrow inlets and channels ??

  18. The eyewall is going west of Naples by 20 miles or so and they are getting this kind of surge.

    What in the world is going to happen for a surge a bit in areas just to the immediate northwest of Fort Myers who are going to take the eastern eyewall.

    Heavens help the people who are near the Gulf.

  19. A USAF hurricane hunter aircraft was damaged in Ian this morning. The visible damage is mainly cosmetic and was caused by hail (which is extremely rare in a hurricane). More concerning is the crew report that they lost over 1000 feet of altitude in a nose-up position – thankfully they had plenty of altitude to recover and save the plane. By early accounts, one of the most harrowing hurricane hunter flights ever.

    https://twitter.com/malkoff/status/1575142180406132737?s=46&t=lXu–D_T3w12eYc6P17NqQ

  21. With 90F water temps feeding Ian, it’s no wonder he’s now well beyond “monster” status.

    I had no idea our oceans could get that hot! OUCH!!!

  27. A future weather conference topic …..

    how did the models get this intensity and track projection so wrong ?

    No one would have thought today’s outcome 72 hrs ago, maybe even 48 hrs ago.

    2. The track forecast was well within the cone, and well within the margin of error of most of the models for quite some time. The models actually did a really good job on the track. As for the intensity, well, none of the models have ever been good at that, but I’d say that a lot of them did a really good job as well.

      The GFS from 18z Sunday for its 72 hour forecast had a 944mb low about 150 miles west-northwest of Ft. Myers.
      The GFS from 18z Monday for its 48 hour forecast had a 946mb low about 100 miles west-northwest of Ft. Myers.

      The ECMWF from 18z Sunday for its 72 hour forecast had a 961mb low about 150 miles west of Ft. Myers.
      The ECMWF from 18z Monday for its 48 hour forecast had a 954mb low about 50 miles west-northwest of Ft. Myers.

      The HWRF from 18z Sunday for its 72 hour forecast had a 952mb low about 100 miles west-southwest of Ft. Myers.
      The HWRF from 18z Monday for its 48 hour forecast had a 945mb low about 75 miles southwest of Ft. Myers.

      2. I was actually going to comment this afternoon to say the guidance, overall, did not do that bad a job on this thing. Yes some of the major models had it going much further north up the coast for a while (and myself, I thought it might make it even further up than that guidance did .. haha, fail). It quickly became apparent yesterday that had no chance of happening, but the track as you said was basically in the cone and range of error. The alerts were out, the watches, eventually the warnings.

        The 3km NAM was out to lunch longer than any other guidance but that’s normal. 😉

        All in all, not that bad by the guidance. You already have the #’s above so I won’t add to that.

        1. Fair enough. I was wrong in saying the models.

          I should have worded things differently.

          In my opinion, watching national weather coverage, I don’t think Sunday afternoon or Monday afternoon, the prevailing concensus by the human beings was this outcome. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. NHC forecast from 11am Sunday:

            72H 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH

            NHC Forecast from 11am Monday:

            48H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.8W 120 KT 140 MPH

            Actual at 28/1200z 26.0N 82.7W 135 KT 155 MPH

            Anybody who didn’t see this coming on Sunday or Monday just wasn’t paying attention at all.

      2. Why are we winking? This might not happen? And if it is running along side the Carolina’s are we still considered out of the picture up this way?

        1. The pattern further north still would likely prevent most of, if not all of, the moisture from reaching us. Honestly, I was hoping it would get up here. We still need the rainfall, and we’d get it without the damaging wind or the flooding if it lifted northward further. Doesn’t look to be the case though…

      1. I read that as 46, and I’m about be … “umm Tom …” but then I said the . before the 4. HAHA long day, long week, long month here ’round home.

  35. WTNT64 KNHC 281910
    TCUAT4

    Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
    310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

    …EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN
    SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA…

    NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made
    landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa
    around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
    reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian’s maximum sustained winds
    were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum
    central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb
    (27.75 inches).

    SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT…1910 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…26.7N 82.2W
    ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
    ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…940 MB…27.75 INCHES

  37. Beware of the incorrect stories out there.
    I just saw one that says Ian stretches from Florida to Greenland – “the strangest hurricane ever seen”. No. The high clouds that flow off the top of Ian are then moving along the upper winds ahead of the trough that is swinging through the northeastern US and southeastern Canada. This is a normal and frequent occurrence, and the story out there is completely incorrect. If you see anyone post it, let them know what’s really going on there. 🙂

      1. My oldests in laws are about 5 miles in from the Naples coast but at an elevation of 16’. They don’t have power but there isn’t damage. They can look out and see lots of damage in the distance though

  40. Long way to go on this but as of 12z op runs regarding Ian remnant rain…

    ECMWF: 2 scrapes, one over the weekend, 1 early next week.
    Canadian: Weekend scrape, miss by a hang-back low early week.
    GFS: Near-miss – maybe S Coast sprinkles weekend, then dry.

    Of more immediate importance is the ongoing situation and then what it does once it crosses the FL peninsula.

      2. Thank you I appreciate the response . If I’m correct ( and I may not be ) I think it’s close to Jacksonville Florida .

  44. That Ft Myers gauge topped at 8.57 ft, beating its previous high gauge mark by 5.17ft.

    It’s dropped to 8.41 ft.

    Both Ft Myers and Naples beat their previous tide gauge highs by 5 ft today.

  45. Well, it took a while for this tropical season to come to life and now in 10 days, Cape Breton, Nova Scotia and parts of west Florida have a long, long, long recovery ahead.

    Let’s hope northeast Fl, Georgia and the coastal Carolinas don’t get hit too bad the next 48 hrs.

      1. Mac’s brother and family were here from the CA Bay Area Along with all of Mac’s family for a reunion when the earthquake occurred in Orlando. It was just about a month after Hugo.

        I will never forget his comment that he hoped that somehow the rescue efforts in CA would not halt any rescue efforts in SC. And that was two locations

        I’m not sure how we make sure that each of the places you mentioned can receive the help they most certainly need but pray we can

  46. I don’t have a bucket list but one place I really , really want to go someday is Marco Island Florida, My Grandparents spent winters there before they passed & I always wanted to see where they & how they spent time there , it looks beautiful in the many pictures I have seen .

  48. Well, people were starting to write off this hurricane season, and then mother nature says hold my beer.
    Fiona and Ian have all caused major to catastrophic damage. Earl was not that bad of a storm. Earl though not that “bad of a storm” was worst in many ways for the USVI than Fiona. I lost power with Earl for the entire day. Lost it for 2 hours with Fiona.

    In terms of Ian, the models did not have a solid idea of where it would go until it was past Cuba. As of Monday 12z suits, many models/ensembles had Ian making it to the big bend and weakening as it did so (with interaction with wind shear) It wasnt until the 00z Tuesday suits in which things moved more towards Tampa Bay area points south.

  50. If I’ve added correctly, Orlando International is nearing 12 inches of rain. 2.63 inches of that fell in 1 hr, from 2-3 am.

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