Thursday September 29 2022 Forecast (6:45AM)

64 Comments

An upper level trough will swing through the region during the first half of the day today with a sun/cloud mix for a while mid to late morning as the sun-heated air rises into colder air aloft. I do not expect these clouds to grow enough to produce any showers as their development will be thwarted by the arrival of milder air aloft for the second half of the day. Also during the day today the South Coast region will see a stream of high clouds that once belonged to the outflow of Hurricane Ian, and even as high pressure builds into the region tonight and Friday, we will see more high clouds fanning into our sky that are associated with that system. The storm, which came ashore on the West Coast of Florida Wednesday as a category 4 hurricane, has pretty much completed crossing the peninsula and will emerge off the eastern coast of the state back over water before turning to the north and making another landfall on Friday as a strong tropical storm in South Carolina. While the storm’s impact will be far less severe than what Florida experienced, it will still be a formidable system capable of producing wind damage and flooding rain, as well as some minor to moderate storm surge. This system will then weaken but expand in coverage over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. The northern edge of its rain shield will make a push toward our South Coast region by later Saturday, but for the most part I expect this system to remain to our south with protective high pressure in place over the weekend and Monday as well. We won’t escape its high cloud shield however, which will limit our sunshine during the day and our star gazing at night.

TODAY: Sun with passing clouds. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun with high clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Limited sun, especially south of I-90. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A touch of light rain possible South Coast. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain possible near Cape Cod early in the day. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Low pressure to the south may get close enough to deliver a bit of light rain to southern areas at the start of the period. A cold front coming through mid to late period may bring a shower but more notably a shot of very cool, windy weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Potential wet weather threat early period, then dry with near to below normal temperatures expected.

64 thoughts on “Thursday September 29 2022 Forecast (6:45AM)”

  8. I wonder if now that Ian is coming back over water, if the NHC will ask the hurricane hunters to resume recon flights on Ian ?????

    1. Wow. He has managed to remain fairly strong. Makes me worry about how much he will strengthen before landfall in SC. I’m hearing rides may not be favorable when he does that

  12. The track of Ian takes it into Folly Beach, SC, seven miles south of where daughter and family have rented on isle of palms. Of course between now and then, the track may well change but ugh.

  14. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/KMLB_loop.gif?6ff475d787c242064dbb6f6648e1498b

    I love the Melbourne radar right now, because its almost like you can see the old core of the hurricane and then a smaller center now over the water just east of Cape Canaveral.

    I like the radar now because the satellite looks messier and harder to determine the center. Also, it makes me think Ian is no longer 100% tropical, due to some relatively drier and cooler air coming into the west side of the system.

  15. Well, people were starting to write off this hurricane season, and then mother nature says hold my beer.
    Fiona and Ian have all caused major to catastrophic damage. Earl was not that bad of a storm. Earl though not that “bad of a storm” was worst in many ways for the USVI than Fiona. I lost power with Earl for the entire day and had more rainfall here on St. Thomas.

    In terms of Ian, I feel so bad for the citizens of Florida the models did not have a solid idea of where it would go until it was past Cuba. As of Monday 12z suits, many models/ensembles had Ian making it to the big bend and weakening as it did so (with interaction with wind shear) It wasnt until the 00z Tuesday suits in which things moved more towards Tampa Bay area points south. We also didnt have a good idea if the storm was going to go back over water or go straight up into the SE.

    I do have to say I am going to be curious on who gets what in terms of recovery. The people of PR many are still without power from Fiona. Will also like to see how long it takes these people to get power back compared to when PR was hit by Maria and the USVI was hit by Irma.

    1. It was actually in the NHC cone 5 days in advance.
      Some models did struggle but the Euro grabbed it pretty good before it got to Cuba, and the forecast from NHC had the landfall point in the cone all the way, so all in all it was a very good forecast. The watches were up about as early as they could have been.

      Just a very rough storm. Rapid intensification is very tricky. There were signs Ian could be impacted by dry air and shear and it just didn’t really happen in time.

        1. From 10:17? Didn’t see NHC mentioned there which is why I brought it up above. 🙂

          I’ve been critical of NHC many times, even this season, but I agree they did rather well here on this one.

    3. In that 11am discussion, my favorite line was at the top of the 2nd paragraph

      “Ian has stubbornly gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days”

      1. Those are the words of a frustrated forecaster.
        I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been there. Hahaha!

  17. TK, any ideas about north shore weather for Sat night? Have potential BBQ plans … the good news is that we will be eating inside.

    1. I wouldn’t cancel anything, but don’t look for a mild and pleasant evening. 🙂 Even if it’s dry it’ll be cool. We’re pretty locked into a cool pattern now so odds favor that over warmth for a while.

  18. We’re back up after a server crash. Can’t guarantee you there won’t be more issues with this server. When it acts up, it tends to do so dramatically.

  19. CPC keeps making their 8-14 cooler each day. They try to return us to above then realize that’s not going to happen and change it. I agree with the cooler regime.

    1. I’d be curious to know if that spot usually goes completely water-free at low tide. The ones around Hampton do not. Some do, some do not. That said, they do have a pretty good onshore flow in all of that area so it’s very possible that it held some of the water back in their that would usually drain out.

      1. They have had a lot of rain and have seen flooding of the flats for a bit. The photo is from a local photographer for that area.

  21. This rainfall forecast for Saturday is tricky enough, but imagine if it were January. We’d be talking about the difference between flurries in the Merrimack Valley and a foot or more on the South Coast. Keep that in mind the next time you think the precip forecasts are only tricky in regards to snow.

    My Weekend Outlook will be up later this evening. Don’t have much time to write it when I’m working day shift, so it won’t get finished until I’m back home.

      1. Off the coast east of Jacksonville now. I think they’ll make a center pass in time for the NHC to look at it for the 8pm update. So, that 8pm should have a measured pressure and flight level winds to help with wind.

  25. Thanks, TK!

    You were right, TK. Gorgeous sunset! Thanks for the head’s up.

    Good news for my buddy and cousin. My cousin had little damage, a hour from the coast in Bradenton. My college roommate’s home is still standing in Siesta Key, but tons of debris.

    Tough news for the Mom of one of my fellow Spanish teachers. She lost the roof of her home in Cayo Costa where I understand a wind gust was 140!!! My colleague spent an hour yesterday morning convincing her Mom to evacuate which, thank God, she finally did. She’s bedding down at South Ft. Myers High School.

    1. It was absolutely spectacular here. 🙂

      Glad for the good news, sorry for the sad news. I’m glad though it was just a roof and not a life….

      1. Indeed. Thanks, TK. My friend’s Mom probably will come back to Massachusetts to live with her daughter (my friend) when she can get a flight out.

      2. Below is a little color coded key and I believe it’s in knots and it shows what the measured winds were at the level the plane is flying at.

        1. Think of a wind barb as the back half of an arrow with half a tail.

          The wind is blowing FROM the direction the lines or flag(s) are facing. So in the picture you posted, the winds on the left side of the circulation are generally from the northeast, and on the other side from the southwest (the circulation you’d expect around low pressure).

          Each line represents 10 knots. A shorter line represents 5 knots. A flag represents 50 knots.

          Example: If you saw a wind barb with 1 flag, 1 full sized line, and 1 half sized line, it would indicate the wind speed being 50+10+5 or 65 knots.

          It’s important to note also that on that particular diagram, we’re looking at the winds at flight level, not at the surface.

          2. Wow. Thank you very much. Grandkids are down watching various new season shows so I cannot concentrate enough. I also sent to my SIl and daughter.

  28. Maybe some good news:

    Seems the wind in Charleston area is northerly and it’s helping to prevent a big surge for now (according to the tide gauge)

    But, high tide in Wilmington and Charleston is 11-11:30 am, only a few hrs prior to landfall.

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