Friday September 30 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)

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High pressure builds in today but then retreats slightly north this weekend. While this is occurring, Ian makes one more landfall as a hurricane (category 1) on the South Carolina coast today then moves north northwest into the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia where it weakens over the weekend. We’ve already experienced the high cloud shield from Ian for over 24 hours – it made for a very colorful sunset for some areas yesterday and a nice sunrise for some again this morning. The rainfall from that system is also spreading out and some of it will make a push toward our area for this weekend. The question for several days has been just how much impact, if any, that rain would have. Even when it became clear the low itself would not make the trip directly up this way, we always have to watch for the rain shield in this pattern as it can move quite a distance away from its parenting storm. Right now the best guess is that there will be the most rain right along the South Coast on Saturday, with a lesser chance that rain gets to and north of I-90, and if it does so it would be rather brief and lighter, before moving out. Either way, the cloud shield will be over the region much of the time the next few days, thin enough today that we have some filtered sunshine, but thicker so we have much less sun opportunity tomorrow (with the rain chance present) and maybe thinning out again at least to the north on Sunday. With a northeasterly air flow taking over between Ian’s remnant low and a big high to our north, we may eventually see some lower clouds from the ocean as well at some point during the weekend. Early next week we may still be on the fence as a hang-back low moves out south of our area, and may get close enough later Monday or Tuesday to bring some additional at least light rainfall in to parts of southeastern New England. All the while our temperatures will be running a little below normal as our cooler early autumn regime continues.

TODAY: Sun filtered through high clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain South Coast and a lesser chance of rain in the I-90 belt. Highs 57-64. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible near the South Coast at times. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH near the coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain Cape Cod / South Coast. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Improving weather middle of next week with clearing and a little milder. Strong cold front follows with a brief shower chance and a return to below normal temperatures after that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Potential wet weather threat early period, then dry with near to below normal temperatures expected.

60 thoughts on “Friday September 30 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  2. Thanks TK. In coastal Maine for the past two days and got beautiful sunrise pictures this morning. Heading home today. Debating whether to water the grass seed this afternoon.

    1. I’m a little confused. Aren’t those beaches north of where Ian is coming ashore? I thought folly beach just off of Charleston ….a barrier island ….is where the center was to come ashore. Did the center shift north?

    1. Did ever show Hurricanes or hurricane tracks?
      I believe the tracks are for thunderstorms only.

      I don’t seem to get a location of IAN or Ian’s track.

      Perhaps something is available with a more expensive tier?
      I don’t know.

      Sorry

  13. Question. Have most towns lifted water bans? It seems our wet areas are full again and I’m wondering why we have not. But I also understand the departments that monitor the aquifer have much better information than I

    1. MWRA towns have none, but I am not sure about the ones not on that system. There may be some that put restrictions in place with a solid end date and they are just sticking to it. At this point, there is no real need for them.

  18. Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
    215 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

    …HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL NEAR GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA…

    Surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Ian
    made landfall at 205 pm EDT (1805 UTC) near Georgetown, South
    Carolina with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and an
    estimated minimum central pressure of 977 mb (28.85 inches).

    SUMMARY OF 205 PM EDT…1805 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…33.3N 79.2W
    ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Blake/Cangialosi/Huffman

  21. The helpful thing for Myrtle Beach and Wilmington is that the tide is going out during this max surge, which is helping a bit, I’m sure.

    1. The clouds associated with such outflow (even just a regular low pressure system) can travel thousands of miles in the upper winds. I should upload a couple shots I took here for people who have not seen them on Facebook.

  27. Regarding tomorrow’s rain chance, GFS/HRRR are my favored models. NAM & ECMWF too wet in my opinion.

      1. I have a possible youth soccer game viewing (southwest of Boston) and Woburn has a very large outdoor event planned with fireworks in the evening. So I am equally hoping for the same.

            1. Once again, big differences between 2 short range models under 24 hours from the “event”. How many times this year? I’ve lost count. 😉

    2. In my blog last evening, I said that the rain would be mainly south of the Mass Pike, and I see no reason to alter that at this point.

  28. If this were Winter, I’d be going nuts!!!!!
    feet of snow vs NOTHING!

    It’s only 1 1/2 – 2 days out and the models still can’t agree.

    Such is life around these parts.

    My money is on RAIN.

    We shall see.

    Wonder what the 18Z GFS will show.

    1. It’s often dependent on precise location and geographical / topographical specifics, but there are instances in which you can very easily hear wind above you that is not nearly as strong at ground level. I’ve experienced it myself.

        1. One way I know it can happen is when you have a very very low level inversion (a matter of maybe tens of feet). It can be virtually calm where you are and yet if you have very tall trees / buildings / or a hill nearby you can hear a strong wind above. It’s fascinating to me.

  30. Good news… the sailboat we are buying that currently lives in Venice, FL is okay. Venice is about 35 miles north of Fort Myers and they experienced drainage rather than surge. So the water ran out and the boats settled onto the mud and leaned against the pilings resulting in some cosmetic damage where the boats touched the pilings.

    1. Thanks for the update! I saw that they were on the “better” side in terms of storm surge vs. drainage and I figured there was much more of a chance you’d have to not lose it. Then I totally forgot to mention it here in all the stuff that’s been going on (mostly off the blog) for me.

      Thank you for sharing your good news!

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