Saturday October 1 2022 Forecast (8:18AM)

68 Comments

The moisture shield far north of what remains of Ian will bring our area some wet weather this weekend, but the scope of that will depend on location. If you are south of I-90, you’re most likely to see rain for more time. If you’re near the South Coast, you’ll see the most rain for the most time. If you are to the north, you may see little or even possibly no rain. Certainly though there will not be much, if any, sunshine this weekend, and it will also be on the cool side due to a northeasterly air flow, initially weak today but strengthening on Sunday as the gradient tightens between Ian’s remaining low pressure to the south and a high pressure area to the north. This general set-up persists early next week, and I’ve been a little uncertain as to whether or not we’ll be more impacted by the low to the south or the high to the north, but right now I’m leaning toward the high pressure area being stronger to start the week, keeping the low to the south, then one final push of low pressure that may tag at least Cape Cod with a little wet weather later Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Need to keep an eye on that in fine-tune it later.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast, periods of rain I-90 belt, chance of occasional very light to light rain to the north of the I-90 belt. Highs 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Best chance of rain Cape Cod, lesser chance elsewhere. Areas of fog and drizzle favoring eastern coastal locations. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible near the South Coast at times. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH near the coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain Cape Cod / South Coast. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with possible rain South Coast favoring Cape Cod. Partial sun elsewhere. Highs 57-64. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH and gusty, probably somewhat stronger Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

A small area of high pressure extends into the region with fair and seasonable to milder weather October 6 into October 7 before a strong cold front swings through with a shot of chilly air to follow for the October 8-9 weekend that may be reinforced at the end of the period from another Canadian cold front.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures near to mostly below normal.

68 thoughts on “Saturday October 1 2022 Forecast (8:18AM)”

        1. The general idea is the GFS/HRRR being correct (from what was being depicted yesterday). The NAM has trended that way.

          Surface obs show this so far, but it’s early. And we also have to keep in mind that KBOX radar being down is going to give us a different perspective, using radar beams further out that are going to be seeing higher up and showing heavier rainfall that is struggling to reach the ground, especially north of I-90.

  2. Thanks TK !

    October 1st and the cold season kicks in. Ok, I can do 8 months of cold until next June arrives. Life in the arctic north ! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Thanks TK, lol !

        Yes, this over 99F heat, but could we have mid 60s to 70F ?

        Low-mid 50s and no warming sun, chilly !! I could take this around Halloween to Veteran’s Day. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  3. Thanks TK.

    On my way into work, I stopped by DD and purchased a pumpkin donut to celebrate “October”. These pumpkin products should begin in October, NOT July!!! 🙂

    I was puzzled enough a few years back when the pumpkin spice products rolled out right before Labor Day. 😉

    1. I’m right there with you on that.
      I see them in August but I won’t touch them until after the equinox. I have some pumpkin spice k-cups that I use to make both hot and iced coffee, and I will pick up a few from DD along the way.

      We live in a “push it” culture. I totally get stuff being in stores early because people have projects and need to do those, but I prefer things like seasonal flavors in the actual season. And I wouldn’t care so much if it’s out early because I don’t have to buy it until I’m ready, but they also take it away too soon! BAH!

      1. They could trash pumkin spice for all I care. It is useless and destroys the taste of a good cup of coffee. To each his/her own. Whatever floats your boat. 🙂

    3. Well we all know I am a contrarian. I have no problem with anything seasonal being available at any time of the year. Everyone has the right to just ignore it and those who enjoy it have….well, the right to enjoy it.

      Should I add my Halloween decorations have been up for a couple of weeks. They will come down the day after Halloween and Christmas will replace them within a week. I watch Christmas movies all year.

      https://imgur.com/a/PxxGUji

  4. It will be interesting if Boston sees at least “measurable” rainfall today. It sure looks like it wants to rain right now.

  6. Why is it that the NWS radar chooses to be down ONLY when
    there are precipitation events. Does it ever go down during clear skies. )(!)@(#&*)(!&@)#$*&!_$@*#_)!*$)(!&*@($*!()$*&

    1. Here is where TK or SAK says of course it is down during clear skies. We’re just not looking at the radar so we are not aware. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. It’s a very long project that they had to schedule with not a lot of time to wiggle around. So they picked end September / early October, well before winter.

      We should have it back in about a week.

  7. 11Z HRRR has about 0.2 inch for Boston.
    12Z HRRR has about 0.12 inch for Boston.

    Boston is being fringed. Wish I had the radar.

    Looking at Albany or NYC just ain’t cutting it.
    Portland is even worse.

  8. Current radar

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJ3ZWF0aGVyIiwiY2VudGVyIjpbLTcwLjk5Niw0Mi4yOTNdLCJsb2NhdGlvbiI6Wy02OS4xNiw0Mi42OTNdLCJ6b29tIjo4LjQzNTEwMDA0Mzk0NDAyfSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjp0cnVlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOmZhbHNlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC44LCJsb2NhbCI6MC42LCJsb2NhbFN0YXRpb25zIjowLjgsIm5hdGlvbmFsIjowLjZ9fQ%3D%3D

    1. That’s reasonable, IMO. Typical for what was once a solid moisture plume fighting very dry air.

  10. I heard Gov. DeSantis mentioned in passing that Ian is a “once in a 500-year” event. I would be curious if he thought it up himself or if an actual meteorologist said it.

    Regardless, it does make sense to me.

    1. The once in 100, once in 500, once in 1000 don’t work. Stats and weather don’t work like that. It’s virtually arbitrary. So whether he or a met. said it, it’s pretty much hogwash.

      It was an “event” that in itself was bad enough. Whether “statistics and probability” say the next one would be 500 years away and the last one was 500 years ago doesn’t even matter. The next one could be in 2 weeks, or next year, or 5000 years, or anywhere.

      You’ll never hear me using the one-in-(whatever) because it tells you nothing useful.

      What’s more important is studying trends in a more reasonable time frame in regard to our longer term concerns. Sometimes putting solid #’s on things actually takes away from that focus.

    2. My guess is it is how he justifies asking for monies when he voted against money for Sandy which was only a once in 400 year storm

      Hmmm. I seem to be a tad snarky this morning.

    1. Eh, sometimes just letting it play out works just as well. I have mine too now & again. 🙂

  13. A touch of rain reaching the ground here in Woburn as of 10 a.m. … not enough to completely wet the ground though. Just splotches of wet and you can still count the drops on the car tops.

  14. Radar appears to be slowly breaking up

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJ3ZWF0aGVyIiwiY2VudGVyIjpbLTcwLjk5Niw0Mi4yOTNdLCJsb2NhdGlvbiI6Wy02OS4xNiw0Mi42OTNdLCJ6b29tIjo4LjQzNTEwMDA0Mzk0NDAyfSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjp0cnVlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOmZhbHNlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC44LCJsb2NhbCI6MC42LCJsb2NhbFN0YXRpb25zIjowLjgsIm5hdGlvbmFsIjowLjZ9fQ%3D%3D

  15. NOTE: TBOS was one of the “back-up” radars but it’s currently down too – don’t think that one was planned. Oops!

    KGYX (limited), KOKX (better but still limited), and KENX (better for western areas) are the covers.

  16. Finally enough rain to wet the ground and hear on the windows, but definitely “looks” heavier on radar than it is here.

  17. Last slug coming through the NW suburbs now. Definitely enough for puddles now! Quite the wet late morning as it turns out in my area.

      1. It can be, but not always. Too many other things to consider. However, in this particular case, it may very well be, at least in terms of temp trends…

  19. 6 cat 4/5 that hit the Gulf of Mexico since 2017.
    Before 2017 I believe it took 45 years to get 6 cat 4-5 if I understand correctly.

    1. Right, so this stuff isn’t so evenly spaced out. Those one-in-xyz categories make it seem too uniform. This is how the general public will perceive it. Example: I don’t remember the exact event, but somebody I know who is not versed in weather at all heard about a “once in 100 years” event and said to me “Well at least that means it’ll be 100 years before that happens again.” Not quite how it works. So I had to explain to them how that kind of an “average” needs to be taken very lightly. They did understand it after that. 🙂

      Weather/climate doesn’t work so neat and orderly, as you very well know. Shifts in climate & long term cycles will constantly change such things.

      I hope things are going well for you Matt. 🙂

      1. I just listened to a well respected scientist say we can no longer say once in X years. It was never really meant to be literal. Just that it was rare. He said we are getting those extreme weather events more often and they will continue to be much more often in the future. This is worldwide of course and not just the US.

        I am adding what our experts are cautioning. We might be able to reverse it. But that window is closing quickly.

    1. Don’t be surprised if the sun peeks through a bit here and there. Probably more likely to the west though…

        1. Sun is breaking out here in a very modest way at the moment. Just a hint. I heard that might happen in some places. 😉

          1. Almost. The remnant low itself spawns another ocean low that may clip Cape Cod around midweek, so not completely saying bye yet.

  21. I will make one note, the NWS point forecast that updated this morning for my area said that I had a chance of rain before 2PM and rain likely after 2PM. Completely the opposite of what is happening. Oops! Should have gone with HRRR, not NAM.

  22. TK – Would once in a “lifetime” event be acceptable as opposed to a finite number (i.e. 100, 500 etc.)?

    1. Possibly, but again it comes down to highly specific things. One can argue, and be right, that every “event” is once in a lifetime, since no two are exactly alike. I prefer to look at events as events. Yes we can compare them to “similar” events, but there will never be a perfect comparison.

      Things change. Landscape changes. Climate shifts. Population. Construction.

      Compare the coastline of Miami now to 1968. That’s probably one of the best examples I can give you. The same type of storm hitting there now is going to do far more damage than it would have then, because, well, there is far more to damage. 😉

    2. ‘Bout the same here. Our locals were nervous about the Fall Fireworks Festival. I told them not to worry. We’ll be dry, cloudy, and chilly. Wear an extra jacket! What a lovely October evening ahead to celebrate autumn. We’re lucky here. The biggest worry was a little rain. Far less worry than what many others face at the moment, keeping it in perspective.

  24. The electronic billboards on the area highways are advertising the need for Massachusetts DOT plow drivers. If anybody reading this blog knows somebody who might be interested in plowing for them, pass that along.

Comments are closed.