Wednesday October 5 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)

45 Comments

In what looks like a pattern a little more typical of springtime, but can sometimes happen in autumn too, low pressure sits south of our area and between it, and high pressure to the north, a persistent broad onshore flow continues today along with bands of rain with embedded heavier showers (maybe even some thunder especially to the south). This rainfall has been a little more expansive in coverage than I had anticipated it might be, but not continuous as there are breaks in it at times. However, there have already been some amounts of 2 inches or higher especially in the South Shore region of MA, and this gets added to today as the rest of the region adds some up as well. While you may be tired of a long stretch of cloudy and occasionally wet weather, this again has been generally beneficial to continue reducing the ongoing drought across most of the region. However if you are looking for some nicer weather, you’re going to see it as vastly improved conditions – fair and milder – take place Thursday into Friday as high pressure shifts quickly over then south of the region in the wake of the departed low. This low, the remains of what was once Hurricane Ian, will have produced a range of after effects from devastating damage in Florida to beneficial rainfall in New England. Don’t get too used to the mild spell, which will be brief. A cold front will whistle across the region from west to east late Friday, maybe producing a rain shower, but definitely opening the door for a chilly October air mass from Canada for our weekend. This will come along with mainly dry weather and a gusty breeze. A secondary cold front crossing the region later Sunday may bring a brief passing rain shower.

TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain and embedded heavier showers, including a possible thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Any rain ending. Lows 45-52. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain shower possible in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW from west to east by day’s end.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost in sheltered lower elevations. Lows 37-44, possibly colder in sheltered lower elevations. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, but may drop to near calm in sheltered lower elevations..

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon with a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 56-63. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure builds across the region early next week with fair weather and a chill, then moderating as the high center shifts offshore to the east. Warm front / cold front combo seems timed for the October 12-13 period when there may be brief light rain / rain showers and milder air, before another shot of chilly air from Canada to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Any warm-up will be brief as additional shots of chilly air await in Canada to move this way in a west northwesterly air flow with mostly dry weather. Brief precipitation episodes can accompany any air mass change.

45 thoughts on “Wednesday October 5 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  7. Thank you, TK.

    0.18 yesterday with all but 0.02 just before midnight. I thank Tom for sharing some of his. And 0.27 so far today.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Don’t know if my gauge is off or not. It says 0.84 so far. This includes the rain from yesterday, of course.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Sounds like Logan is doing well in the rain department for a change. Thanks for the update JPD!

        1. Yes, the rain was in time to save foliage season for the most part. 🙂 It’ll be a pretty good one – and already 7 to 10 days ahead of last year’s pace (according to my photos). 🙂

          The exception will be some of the older / more stressed trees will do leaf drop early, but that won’t have a huge impact on the overall color. I think our rustic season (the November portion) may be brief but feature a lot of deep golds. I absolutely love that part of the autumn. 🙂

          Lawn cleanups should be able to finish largely on time or slightly ahead of schedule this year.

          1. Foliage is ahead out this way …well ahead …and quite a bit nicer than we have seen in the seven years here. Fall is also more like the fall of decades ago for the first time in ….welll….decades. So far.

            1. I really want to try to get back out to Old Stone Church at peak color but I probably only have a few days left…

    2. Is that rain to the South going to pivot up here for more rain or are we pretty much done with it?

      thanks

      1. Not done yet. Still run a pretty likely shot at more rain and even a few t-storms into tonight before things pivot and pull away overnight and Thursday morning.

          1. Yes. These things are wildcards – not easy to predict. Turns out the low had enough northward spread as the high weakened to really deliver for a lot of the region. This is GREAT news. People are complaining about the weather but this puts us in position for saying byebye to the drought very soon, even with a drier pattern returning soon. We’re now at the time of the year (low sun angle, short daylight) that it doesn’t matter. Agriculturally, we’re not in need of rain for crop development. We don’t have over-wintering crops around here, just seasonal. So we don’t really have to worry on that UNLESS we have a dry winter into spring.

              1. Definitely not. First, a lot of the rain has fallen after the 8 a.m. Tuesday cut-off, so it won’t show up until the D.M. for Oct 13. And at that point, I suspect it will be a mix of abnormally dry and moderate drought for most of southern New England. Some areas may be reduced to “normal”.

        1. The china in the hutch is shaking I’m not exaggerating, it’s sounds like the booms are on my front porch & lightning!!!!

      1. All you need is the instability above. High based convection doesn’t care what the temp is at the surface. It’s pulling its air from above the cool marine layer.

        March 29 2020 – classic example. That’s the night my old CB antenna was destroyed by a lightning strike.

    1. Eric mentioned he had heard from Barry on the late evening newscast. I suppose the foliage down here will be “Dullest in years” due to our everlasting drought. Oh well.

      1. You must have missed everything I wrote when you asked me about that earlier. We’re going to have a good foliage season. It’s already starting. It will be one of the most brilliant foliage seasons we’ve had in a long while.

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