The cold front that went through late yesterday slowed down temporarily as a little low pressure area ripples along it early today, keeping clouds in place in eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT, along with some showers to start the day from the MA South Shore into eastern RI eastward to Cape Cod. These will exit by mid to late morning and clearing will continue to move in from the west, with the remainder of the day featuring sun and passing fair weather clouds and the true feel of fall with cool air and a developing breeze. Tonight is going to be the coldest night of the season so far, with many areas dropping below 40 for the first time since last spring. Locations that see the wind drop off adequately will run a high chance of seeing their first frost of the season, but this may be prevented in some areas by the breeze and air that is too dry, as well as some coastal and urban areas which will not be cold enough for it either way. Regardless, Sunday starts with a chill and will also be a cool day with a breeze, maybe up a few degrees for high temps over what we see today. There will be a little boundary crossing the region during the afternoon and evening – basically the remains of a secondary cold front – that will bring some cloud patches, but not expecting any showers with it. High pressure builds in then eventually shifts to the south and east from Monday through Wednesday with fair weather and a moderating temperature trend.

TODAY: Clouds early to mid morning eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI, including showers from eastern RI across southeastern MA at first. Otherwise, sun and passing clouds. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost, especially away from the coast and in lower elevation suburban and rural areas. Lows 28-35 with coldest in the deepest valley areas, except 36-43 coastal plain and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun and patchy clouds during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A trough of low pressure will approach from the west then cross the region October 13-14, first with fair and mild weather, then with rain showers likely as a cold front moves into and across the region. This front exits the coast with a narrow area of high pressure building in for the October 15-16 weekend and I am expecting dry and seasonably cool weather at that time. Another trough approaches at the end of the period and may bring additional unsettled weather to the region by then.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

The trend on medium range guidance has been to slow the progression of the pattern slightly, with a trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast, far enough west for a threat of additional unsettled weather early this period, followed by a drying trend. Temperatures may be milder early in the period before returning to near to below normal. This outlook is only moderate confidence.