Monday October 10 2022 Forecast (7:15AM)

35 Comments

A disturbance and old frontal boundary will cross the region from west to east today with abundant cloud cover, but only a limited shower chance, confined mainly to the afternoon hours and northwest of Boston. High pressure builds in tonight and Tuesday then shifts offshore by midweek. This brings fair weather and eventually a slight warming trend. Our nice weather will be put to an end later in the week as a trough and frontal boundary approach from the west bringing showers to the region, some possibly heavy, later Thursday into Friday, before pushing offshore later Friday.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. A brief rain shower possible mainly west and north of Boston during the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increase from west to east. Highs 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers ending from west to east in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. . Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Upper pattern features trough of low pressure to the west and high pressure at the surface to just offshore during the October 15-16 weekend. This leads to a fair, seasonable weekend, not quite as cool as the preceding one, and quite nice for any autumn outdoor activities both days. The trough to the west is expected to edge eastward and bring some unsettled weather at times during the October 17-19 period, but definitely not 3 days of solid rainfall – just chances of rain showers from time to time and a cool-down.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

As low pressure departs the region but the mean trough position still from the Great Lakes to Northeast, expecting mainly dry weather with 1 or 2 brief precipitation threats, and temperatures near to below normal.

35 thoughts on “Monday October 10 2022 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Interesting “reddish/purple-ish” sunrise coming into work this morning, due to the clouds. 🙂

    1. We had some brief red & violet visible from here to the east. From my location, not enough for a blazing sky-on-fire type of sunrise due to the eastern edge of the cloud deck being too far east, but still a hint of nice color to star the morning. 🙂

      Despite a lot of clouds today, it won’t be solidly overcast. Most of the time it will be bright, and periodically the sun will break out.

  4. TK – Has Ian indirectly changed the pattern in which we will now get at least light to moderate rain events every few days, no longer persistently dry for days on end? Based on your outlook above, that’s the impression I am getting. Not specifically about Ian, just the a
    precipitation threats.

    Can major tropical systems change the overall pattern for the continental U.S.?

      1. Thanks TK. I figured with the intense size and strength, weather patterns could actually be altered. I do find it interesting though that our pattern has turned cooler side of normal and a bit “wetter” post-Ian. No more persistently dry like before. 🙂

    1. Wow! Thanks Jimmy. It appears your area did well considering early October. 🙂

      Since accumulating snow in October generally produces below normal seasonal snowfall, I would be curious what the final amounts were for that 1804-05 winter season. Highly unlikely any accurate records were kept back then.

      1. The fairy tale about October leading to below normal snowfall has been repeated numerous times, but you cannot definitively make that statement looking at the actual numbers.

        For Lowell, we’ve had measurable snow 5 times in October

        1979 – well below normal snowfall
        2000 – well above normal snowfall
        2002 – well above normal snowfall
        2011 – well below normal snowfall
        2020 – below normal snowfall

        If you use just a trace of snow, it’s happened 19 times – 8 above normal seasons, 9 below normal seasons, 2 that were almost exactly normal.

        1. Heaven help me for asking but are the five times you mentioned measurable snow in October the winters you saw below normal snow?

          1. The 1804-05 winter was clearly a very rough one for the northeast especially.

            Climate change towards another ice age?

  9. I never knew of that 1804 storm until I read that tweet from NWS Boston. I knew of the October 1987 snowstorm for northwest hills of CT and the Capital Region of NY and of course the October Nor’easter of 2011.

  13. Norway maples are not the most colorful trees there are but my Norway maple is changing 2 weeks earlier than it did last year. And I can already tell it’s going to be the most brilliant it’s been in a long time.

    I got a photo of two yellow trees at my old elementary school today. I have not seen these trees this good in years.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/6iz6tWWmSgEg4iPc8

    1. While I would not pay attention to those #’s, the scenario itself is entirely possible with a pretty decent shot at a strong upper low nearby. Something to keep an eye on anyway.

  15. Moderate rain shower moved through here just before sunset and then helped produce this spectacular full double rainbow. With my phone camera on a 0.6 zoom out I still could not fit the secondary bow completely in the frame. I could have done a panoramic but the rainbow actually lasted a very short period of time so I went with this. No edits to this photo except an orientation correction. My running joke is the rainbow is so big that it makes Woburn High School, where I took the photo, look like Lego.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/SpiXn4CACNtxgDnS7

          1. I recorded NBc10 at 11 just in case. Is that the only time it is on? As you can see, I really don’t watch news. My weather comes from here

          3. I have no idea if he did on air. I was out cold early. 😉 That’s unusual for me..haha.

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