Wednesday October 12 2022 Forecast (7:22AM)

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High pressure shifts offshore today with another fair weather day for us. After a cool start like yesterday, we turn mild again, but this time you’ll notice more of a breeze than we had yesterday when we had high pressure overhead. Now we’re in the region between the high and an approaching low pressure area from the west, which helps create more wind. Our run of nice days will come to an end Thursday as the trough from the west moves in, and its accompanying frontal system triggers showers which will move into the region by later in the day. The wet weather likely is most widespread at night into early Friday, when some downpours may occur, along with some gusty winds. We have to watch for a thin squall line which may be embedded in a larger area of widespread showers and rainfall too. Everything pushes offshore during Friday behind a wave of low pressure that forms on the frontal boundary but moves by quickly. Some guidance prolongs rainfall over Cape Cod and even far eastern MA into early Saturday but I am not buying into this scenario. Looks like a mainly fair weather weekend with narrow high pressure shifting through the region then offshore, and with the mean trough position still to the west, the upper and surface flow is mainly southwest, meaning a milder weekend than the previous one.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increase from west to east. Highs 62-69. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially by late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, above 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers ending from west to east in the morning. Clouds break for sun in the afternoon but passing rain showers still possible, and more widespread showers may continue over Cape Cod. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

The first few days of this period will be dominated by a trough of low pressure drifting eastward through the region with unsettled weather and a cooling trend – details to be ironed out in the days ahead. Fair, seasonably cool weather should be with us for later in the period behind this system.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

No big changes here. The large scale pattern keeps the general trough position in the Great Lakes and Northeast, a bit drier with variable temperatures averaging fairly close to normal.

15 thoughts on “Wednesday October 12 2022 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  3. Thanks Vicki for posting that “fog bow” on the previous blog. I’ve never heard of one, let alone seen one that I know of. 🙂

    2. They are far more rare than rainbows or any of the more typical optical phenomenon like parherlion (sun dog), halo, etc.

      I have only seen one fog bow in my life so far.

  10. Good news in the longer range still regarding the long-standing drought in the Southwest…

    Near to above normal precipitation in the medium and longer range for portions and eventually much of the Southwest from West Texas through southern California. This may be a longer term regime change that I spoke of previously. We won’t know for a while…

      1. Near to above normal precipitation generally does not lead to massive flooding. That’s a bit extreme. Flooding episode are going to happen either way, just like droughts. But in the long term, they are looking better. I think this is part of a longer term regime change at least partially related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

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