Thursday October 20 2022 Forecast (7:14AM)

22 Comments

High pressure will continue to keep control of our weather through Saturday with fair weather and a continued moderating temperature trend. An inverted trough of low pressure to the south New England will poke its nose into our business before the weekend is over, though, ending our run of nice weather. While some guidance is barging the rain in here by early Sunday, my current feeling is that while the clouds will overtake the region hastily, we may not see much in the way of rainfall that early unless you are south of Boston, which may be wet as early as the morning or midday with an initial burst of moisture. Areas to the west and north may not see it until the end of the day or evening hours. This detail will need fine-tuning. For now, just expect the weather to go downhill for the second half of the weekend in terms of at least cooler air with an easterly air flow, and lots of clouds, and wet weather arriving sooner or later. The unsettled weather continues into Monday with the inverted trough still bringing an onshore flow and periods of rain and drizzle to the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain possible mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Chance of rain further north later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 53-58. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

The weather may remain somewhat unsettled early in the period as the trough over the region weakens but hangs in place, waiting to be swept offshore by a cold front from the west sometime in the October 26-27 window. So the possibility of rain showers will be around during this time. Brief drying follows, but another low pressure system may bring additional rainfall to the region by the end of the period. This is a different outlook than what it appeared to be previously, and is not a high confidence forecast at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Very low confidence outlook. Leaning toward dry, cool weather to end the month, and another bout of unsettled weather from a low pressure system in the first days of November.

22 thoughts on “Thursday October 20 2022 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    I would say any future Drought Monitor maps should be clearing up completely soon.

    Yesterday, Eric mentioned 1-2” for the now Sunday into Monday event.

  9. The NOAA “winter outlook” is really just the outlook that covers December January and February which has been in existence for about a year, since the long lead outlooks go out 14 months, and gets updated once a month.

    Last month the headlines said the same thing but it was really just their monthly update. 🙂

      1. Definitely starts La Nina. Whether it stays there through or goes neutral remains to be seen.

      1. Me neither. Excellent recovery in that area. A little more work to do further north. Getting there!

        Once upon a time I didn’t have a lot of faith in the weather pattern but it proved me wrong and delivered, and still has some decent potential going forward. We may be beyond agricultural season so in that regard it doesn’t matter, but it DOES matter in setting us up for next year’s. Obviously a huge factor ahead is how precip / snow for winter, but that’s TBD. 🙂

  11. After a quick look at the PM guidance I like the idea of a slightly delayed rain arrival for Sunday. I think the models jumped the gun yesterday, giving too much weight to that lead area of moisture, which will get eaten away and peel to the right as it moves in, waiting for a second slug to come up later. The areas to get wet first should be South Coast to perhaps South Shore, then a break, then a more solid rain area later in the day and especially evening / night south to north. Still a few days to refine this timing, of course.

    A.M.E. method in play.

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