Friday October 21 2022 Forecast (7:31AM)

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High pressure hangs on through Saturday with fair weather, cool mornings and milder afternoons – quite nice for this time of year. While this weekend will not be excellent from start to finish like the previous couple, there are some parts of the forecast area that will squeak in a dry Sunday despite a thickening overcast and rain moving into some areas. Still feeling that the rain shield from a northward-advancing low pressure area reaches the South Coast and South Shore of MA initially during the afternoon on Sunday, but areas to the west and north stay rain-free until end-of-day or evening. This wet weather will be with us through Monday, though a lot of the rainfall may peel off to the east of the region with just lighter rainfall and areas of drizzle and fog here. We’ll also have to watch for the development of fairly dense fog as Monday rolls along with the arrival of higher humidity, making the temperature / dew point match in much of the region. The wind field may be weak enough that fog can easily form and persist. Wondering if this may have an impact on the MNF game in Foxboro more than any chance of rainfall. We’ll have to see how that evolves. Regardless, Tuesday presents slight improvement but still lots of clouds around with the possibility of a few showers as the disturbance sits nearby while weakening.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain possible mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Chance of rain further north later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Foggy areas – possibly dense. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Fog. Overcast. Drizzle possible. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds. Foggy areas early. Chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Unsettled weather for the first couple days of this period with the old disturbance sitting nearby and a frontal system sweeping through from west to east. Lower confidence thereafter but hints of high pressure trying to regain control of the weather with fair weather, and initial cool shot then moderation.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Low confidence outlook. Leaning toward dry weather to end the month of October and then some unsettled weather returning in the early days of November with a slower moving pattern and a trough returning to the northeastern US.

30 thoughts on “Friday October 21 2022 Forecast (7:31AM)”

      1. Not according to Matt Noyes 10-day outlook this morning but I will certainly take your word over his any day. 🙂

        1. He did indeed say there is a first chance in a while on the weekend for both days and added it is far out so we shall see. Pete also cracked me up re the winter forecast. I’ll have to see if I can find it.

      1. 2nd of 4 games this season. I’ll also be at the Thursday night game against Buffalo (12/1) and Christmas Eve against the Bungals.

    2. Let’s hope it is not pea soup fog.Tough on the QB and receivers, not to mention POOR viewing for those watching the game both live and on television.

  11. I saw the above 10 day forecast comments. 10 day forecasts with temps and precipitation icons. I so feel for these TV Mets. It is pure folly. A trend post day 5, maybe, but exact temps and having to use the rain or snow icon, which is all people remember, just an impossible task. WIth model performance in SNE since summer of 2021, you could argue anything beyond a 3 day forecast is a casino gamble.

    1. That was me. Thanks for your input JMA. The tv met almost always exude as much confidence to the viewer on days 9-10 as days 1-2. At best, some mets will say “that’s the way it looks right now” (keep tuned).

      Perhaps we were better off with those “WBZ 4 Day Planner” forecasts back in the day?

      1. I honestly don’t know any local let that doesn’t make it clear it is far out and will change. Matt did today.

    2. I agree. Those I’ve spoken to agree. But if one listens carefully, the Mets are careful to qualify. Matt did even on this one.

      Now for the odds of those who listen. I’d say 1:100. Even day off, if a met says 30% chance and someone doesn’t get rain……. Well you know.

      My heart goes out to them. It’s why I react so strongly when they are faulted.

      1. Not exactly a fish storm. GFS has it crush PR/VI before becoming a fish storm. Since I forecast for 6 radio stations in the VI, that kind of thing always has my attention. For now though, it’s in the fantasy range, so I put little stock into it. If the GFS keeps doing the same thing, then I’ll keep a closer eye on it.

  13. *** puts on imaginary microphone and stands at the 50 yard line of the blog ***

    After 12z guidance review, the call on the blog stands. There are no changes to the forecast at this time!

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