As we enter the 4th weekend of October, we continue that trend of nice weekend weather, but this time not quite making it all the way through. Today, governed by high pressure to the southeast, is going to be sun-filled and fairly mild, after a cool start. Clouds move in tonight and early Sunday ahead of a low pressure area advancing up from the south, but this system is not going to make a direct impact as a formidable system, but is rather more in the shape of an inverted low pressure trough forming into a weak low. It will toss a rain shield this way which has to battle dry air in place, so this system probably looks worse on model guidance than it will on radar and in reality. That said, the rain chance does increase during the morning on Sunday from the South Coast to the MA South Shore, but this swath of rain will struggle to move northward as the day goes on, probably doing so in drying-up patches that only send some very light rain to the surface. So all in all a good portion of the region gets through Sunday without much if any rainfall. Finally Sunday night into Monday the atmosphere moistens up enough to support more rainfall further west and north, but by then this initial batch of moisture will be peeling off to the east via the upper winds. We’ll stay in the unsettled weather as the lower atmosphere does saturate through Monday with some periods of rain and drizzle under an overcast. And the unsettled pattern is going to try to hang on into the middle of coming week as well as a trough will be nearby and we’ll have to watch for another low pressure area drifting northward this way by Wednesday, which has a higher chance of becoming at least an occasionally wet day here.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds move in. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain at times South Coast to MA South Shore mid morning on. Patches of light rain push through Boston area west and north later in the day but much of day dry in these areas. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Foggy areas – possibly dense. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Fog. Overcast. Drizzle possible. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds. Foggy areas early. Chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Rain shower chance very early in the period as a frontal boundary moves through, then it looks like high pressure takes over with mainly dry weather, a cool shot then a moderating trend for the final days of October.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Low pressure trough moves in with a turn to unsettled weather for the early days of November – timing and detail to be worked out.