Saturday November 5 2022 Forecast (6:23AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

High pressure hangs on this weekend with fair weather and very mild weather. A couple record high temperature may fall on Sunday. We’ll have a bit more cloudiness around at times this weekend than we’ve had the last few days, but it will remain dry. A cold front will cross the region Monday with little fanfare. It will put an end to the warm spell, but not after we sneak in one more warm day. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a new high pressure area from Canada will provide more dry weather but this time with a seasonable November chill in the air.

TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

High pressure hangs on to start the period with fair weather. A low pressure area from the south and disturbance from the west combine to give a period of unsettled weather in the later November 11 to November 13 time window, but not likely that entire time – details to be fine-tuned. Fair weather returns for the end of the period. Temperatures trend cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Two shots of colder air may occur as we start to see a pattern shift. Watching for a couple precipitation threats as well.

51 thoughts on “Saturday November 5 2022 Forecast (6:23AM)”

        1. Ahhh but we are a whole have at least three loved ones whose angel days are the 5th, 10th, 11th. Maybe they can help get something together

  2. Thanks TK.

    Eric and the WBZ team is touting 80F maybe on Monday.

    I suspect warm Novembers lead to below normal snowfalls. I can’t imagine the opposite occurring, maybe normal at best?

    1. First of all, there is no guarantee that this month will end up above normal. The 2nd half of the month actually looks like quite on most of the long-range guidance. However, here is the data using Novembers that are 2 degrees or more warmer than the 135-year average for Lowell (41.3 degrees):

      Long-term average for snow in Lowell is 55.5″
      2020 40.8″ Moderate La Nina
      2016 62.1″ Weak La Nina
      2015 38.0″ Strong El Nino
      2011 23.9″ Moderate La Nina
      2009 46.0″ Moderate El Nino
      2006 38.1″ Weak El Nino
      2001 32.7″ Neutral
      1999 32.5″ Strong La Nina
      1994 23.3″ Moderate El Nino
      1990 28.9″ Neutral
      1988 14.9″ Strong La Nina
      1982 52.0″ Very Strong El Nino
      1979 15.5″ Weak El Nino
      1978 26.2″ Neutral
      1977 94.3″ Weak El Nino
      1975 59.4″ Strong La Nina
      1974 56.5″ Weak La Nina
      1966 75.8″ Neutral
      1963 61.5″ Moderate El NIno
      1960 74.8″ Neutral
      1957 66.3″ Strong El Nino
      1953 25.0″ Weak El Nino
      1950 30.5″
      1946 33.6″
      1941 32.7″

      Below normal snowfall is more common, but there are plenty of years with above or well above snowfall in there, and the ENSO phase doesn’t seem to matter,

    2. Never a guarantee. As one of my colleagues says, “never talk absolutes” in weather until something has already happened. 🙂

      Don’t think anyone gets 80 Monday.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I would NOT bet the house that 80 will not be realized. 🙂
    Probably not, but it “could” be. 🙂

  7. DD has already brought out the Christmas/holiday coffee cups. This year it’s a figure of a snowman. Some carved outdoor pumpkins haven’t even got rotten yet, not to mention leftover Halloween candy still untouched and Veterans Day still to come.

    Corporate continues to rush seasons. 😉

    1. I saw that 🙂 I had a peppermint mocha coffee at Starbucks yesterday. I may head back for another today. I have many of my indoor Christmas decorations up. It takes me a day or better to put all up, so I figured several years ago that early means I have more time to enjoy them and the spirit of the season.

      I’m not sure this is corporate as much as many people have learned to not only celebrate our heroes in November 11 and the gratefulness we feel on Thanksgiving while also enjoying the Miracles of Christmas.

      Oh, I’ve been watching Hallmark Christmas movies all week ❄️ ❤️

  8. Joshua emailed me last evening that his son is doing somewhat better. With his permission, I told him I’d post this positive news here. I pray that he continues to improve.

    2. Vicki – I also thank you for keeping us informed. I really hope that things are turning around for Joshua’s son and all involved.

      1. Thank you. It was wonderful to hear this news last night.

        I am thinking of you also. And your dad. This is a difficult day for you. ❤️

  9. Dp here is around 60F.

    With previous cooler weather and surfaces having cooled, there’s so much condensation from the higher humidity that it looks like it rained overnight.

    1. I noticed that yesterday. We have been really wet here in the mornings. The deck that does not get sun until late day stays wet all day.

    1. Dew point is definitely up. The DEW part of that was very apparent when I went out to my car at 6-something a.m. on the way to the beach for sunrise. 🙂

    1. Saturday, November 5:

      Boston—79°
      Worcester—73°
      Burlington, VT—72°
      Westfield, MA—74°
      Augusta, ME—67°

      Sunday, November 6:

      Boston—73°
      Worcester—71°
      Burlington, VT—75°
      Westfield, MA—76°
      Augusta, ME—66°

      Ok then, today does not look to be a record, but tomorrow’s record is very likely to fall. 🙂

  13. Thanks, TK…

    Joshua, lifting y’all up in prayer.

    Stuffy with a couple of showers moving through to our southwest.

    I see Marshfield defeated Woburn last night in the WHW Bowl.
    Middleborough shut out East Longmeadow, 35-0.

    1. 48-20. Marshfield played a killer first half and just did Woburn in with too much speed. We finally started to get wise to it in the 2nd half and started to make a run, but we’d have needed an extra half to have a chance to catch up. 😉 Marshfield owned that game – well-deserved win over a very big (but slower) Woburn team.

      Got to say hi to Tom here! 🙂

        1. I think this was the first time.

          Our only real rivalry is with Winchester (Thanksgiving game).

        1. A couple very small pop up showers occurred from the moisture advecting in from the south southwest. Should have been over moments after you noticed it.

  16. 12z ECMWF is less aggressive with the low pressure / tropical whatever it will be for the FL area and also a little less dramatic with whatever of it runs up and/or off the East Coast after that. It’s also reflecting timing in more agreement with what I have in my forecast, versus having been much quicker on previous runs.

  18. Last night on one of the local news broadcasts the weather person said not to bother getting up for sunrise and to sleep in because there would be too many clouds for a nice sunrise.

    Here’s the thing…

    Knowing that high and mid-level clouds are coming in generally from the west and having glanced at the orientation of these on the satellite would have led me to say the complete opposite. Use your extra hour not to sleep in but to be up early for the sunrise. It should be quite nice over much of the area. (And it was.)

    Here is my photo from Woburn Center just a short time ago… https://photos.app.goo.gl/EEXNGMZqEUYvqUxf6

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