Sunday November 6 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Welcome back to standard time and sunsets before 5:00 p.m. until early 2023! Two more warm days for us as a high pressure ridge dominates the weather, with our area on the warm side. A few record highs may be set today. You will have to deal with a gusty breeze though if you are outside as the gradient tightens up ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will cross the region during Monday and may produce a few rain showers. It will bring a shift in wind which will lead to a significant cool-down by Tuesday into midweek as Canadian high pressure to the north delivers a new air mass. But dry weather will dominate during this time as well.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds and possibly a passing rain shower in the morning. Sun returns afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW up to 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

We’ll be watching the evolution of a tropical system east of Florida over the next few days. While guidance is iffy on its track, the general idea is that this system will evolve and strengthen, have some impact on Florida, then in one form or another head toward the north at the same time a trough and front approach our region from the west. This combo should give us some kind of rain (and possibly wind) event in the time frame from late November 11 through November 12, which will be fine-tuned this week. Early outlook is that we are dry for Veterans Day ceremonies on Friday, with higher chance of wet weather that night and the first half of Saturday, then a transition to dry, breezy, colder weather for the balance of the November 12-13 weekend. Again, don’t set this in stone – tweaks may be needed. The general idea after that is fair and seasonably chilly weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Overall pattern looks much cooler. We may contend with one precipitation event during this period, but it’s too soon to go into any precise timing and details on that other than speculate mid period looks more likely than earlier or later.

67 thoughts on “Sunday November 6 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Soooo nice to see a bit of light out the door this morning! 🙂

    According to Jacob, a Saturday soaker! Oh well. Hopefully we can salvage next Sunday. 🙁

        1. Yes, Jacob put up graphics showing high/low temperatures in the 60s but would have to wait until Logan makes it “official”. I have no idea what he meant by that. Maybe I misunderstood?

      1. I do fee for people in Florida but I also am sitting here saying when will people of Florida start taking climate change seriously. The Gulf coast has some of the highest concentration of people not willing to listen to scientists. Eventually you would hope they would start after mother natures hits them across the head with it a few times.

      1. YUCK!!!!!!!!!

        I will say this though, whatever “drought” is remaining in SNE, that system should eliminate it and finally clear up the Drought Monitor map once and for all!

        1. That assumes that we actually get appreciable rain from that event which may end up being a non-event here if it is far enough to the east.

  9. So far, I have yet to hear “climate change” as an explanation for these unusually warm November temperatures. Somewhat surprising actually, nowadays.

    1. Why?

      Look at when most of the record high temperatures were set.

      This is a November warm spell. We have had plenty of those, recent and past.

      1. Oh, I’m not buying into climate change either. I’m just somewhat surprised that some organization hasn’t presented it as an explanation via the media. It seems to be the “go to” phrase to explain unusual warm spells and other weather conditions nowadays.

        1. My real point is not to deny anything about the climate. There’s enough evidence to say it has changed already and continues to do so, regardless of what people may attribute the cause to. But my caution is always to be careful about slapping absolute labels on things… Let me elaborate.

          This warm spell: Did it occur because of climate change? Probably not. Did climate change make it more possible for it to occur now than, say, 50 years ago? Somewhere between maybe and probably. It’s likely not “no” and it’s also not likely “100% yes”.

          The main point is not to leave anything out. In science it all has to be considered and refined as we learn. 🙂

  11. Ocean temps still 61°-62° off the south coast. 56° east of Boston. Unless everything lines up perfectly it would probably be difficult to have any early snow.

    1. There is one a week. It disappears into archives after five days. We are hoping TKs tech person can set the sidebar to Seven days.

    1. It feels great !

      During the daytime with the weak sun and autumn colors, it feels a little strange, but once it gets dark, I love the warm evenings and overnight.

      We had the windows open overnight and I love with the increases that took place November 1 for heat, basically being able to not send a penny to the electric/gas companies.

    1. Next, let’s see if they set a new record low high as well. Do we have to wait until BOS climo stats come out later this afternoon?

  19. A note on the Covid page…

    My tech just walked by right when I was looking at this. He said that it may be tough to change the menu without switching the template with this semi-dinosaur site called WordPress, so what I am going to do is create a tab at the top alongside the “Above” and “Contest” sections that will be a running discussion for the Covid-19 Pandemic and related topics until we are out of it. I’ll set that up a bit later when I can spend a little time navigating about. 🙂 Right now it’s time to pick up some leaves in the wind – just a bulk cleanup to fill all the yard waste barrels since we have a collection this coming week. The “final” cleanup will come next week or the week after. 🙂

  20. Ok, I had a moment so I created the tab at the top of the page to get to the new Covid discussion. I’ll put a test post there now and then make a separate post later this evening to remind people how to get there.

    Let me know if you have any issues getting there or using it. 🙂

  21. Thanks TK.

    While the East swelters (relatively speaking), it’s polar opposite here on the West Coast. We’ve been cold for awhile, and now have basically three days straight of rain, snow, and even colder weather on the way. Quite early in the season for a storm like this. But much needed of course given the long term drought here. I’m looking forward to seeing the mountains blanketed in white 🙂

    1. Hi WxW. I know I’m repeating but lt is always great to see you here. I can imagine the rain was very welcome.

  23. Thank you, One thought. I know you can set up order of comments. Can you ask to have it set up for newest posts on top. Otherwise, after a week or so, there will be a lot of scrolling to find new posts. The Choice should be quick.

    If others disagree, I’m absolutely fine with that also.

  24. The upper level low and associated surface low that has developed over the southwest Atlantic that alot of the models have impacting Florida Wednesday/Thursday, Gave me about 9 inches of rain yesterday and last night with water spouts ( saw one from my porch yesterday) We were lucky here that the storm actually intensified as that allowed mid level dry air to move in and suppress the activity over our area today. Ended up with a nice very breezy Caribbean day with highs in the low 80s. Many of the guts here were very high and we had beach erosion at Magens Bay. This was an impressive weather event. Looks like our wet weather here in the Northeast Caribbean looks to continue through at least the first part of December based on the models, then we have our general dry season starting in January. We went from having one of the driest springs on record to one of the wettest falls. My cistern is filled to the brim.

    Plan on being back second week of Decmeber 🙂 here is hoping some of the signs that are showing up gives me some snow while I am in Mass.

    1. Are those reports in cm? The VI data shows widespread 2 to 4 inches, but nothing close to 9, but 2 to 4 inches is 5 to 10 cm.

      I’m hoping for some December snow myself. I do like the temp trend for the 2nd half of November which can sometimes carry into Dec – but no guarantees yet. I’m working on my winter outlook now and going to try to have it out a bit earlier this year than the last couple.

  27. I’m working on a few things with the blog. On the tab above where it says “Covid 19 Pandemic Discussion” you can now add comments.

    I don’t think this template allows me to change the # of posts displayed, but I may try other templates briefly, so if the blog looks completely different at times, that’s just me messing around with stuff. 🙂

  28. Well that was fun.
    For the moment this is on the 2010 theme (the original theme when the blog started).
    I have not been able to change the “recent posts” and “recent comments” to more than five, but you can now scroll back 15 posts on the actual blog, so technically you can get to the weekly covid page should I decide to continue doing it that way, or you can go to the tab at the top to go to a pinned version of the page. I guess it’s going to be up to whatever feels better to the majority who take part in the covid discussion section.

    This will probably be back on the 2014 theme that I’ve been using soon, but in the mean time enjoy the retro look. 😉

      1. It’s kind of fun. I am generally not good at this stuff, hence handing it over to my tech folks, but I’m trying to hammer this one out on my own. I did change the posts shown successfully though from 10 to 15. So there is that.

    1. That’s the 2010 version. I’ll pop it back to 2014 (which it was) in a short bit. This format is not going to improve anything that I was trying to do anyway haha!

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