Wednesday November 9 2022 Forecast (7:41AM)

37 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

If you were up early and outside you felt the chill after a few hours of radiational cooling. Once the wind dropped off late last evening and high pressure built right over us, that clear and calm combo allowed the temps to drop off quickly. Urban centers, the coastline, and some areas at higher elevations were not quite as cold as others, especially inland lower elevations, as that is where you tend to see the maximum impact of radiational cooling. Much of interior MA, especially Worcester County, experienced a hard freeze with low temperatures of 24 to 27, while many other locations saw some frost where the temp met the dew point (or “frost point” in this case). But today is going to be a nice day with a decent temperature recovery under abundant sun, albeit now shining at a very low angle and setting well before 5 p.m. since we went back to EST. So goes November! But the nice weather will last through tomorrow too, with a bit more breeze but also a warmer afternoon as that breeze will be southwesterly on the back side of departing high pressure. Meanwhile, the Nicole watch goes on to the south, with the storm now fully tropical. It moves westward through the northern Bahamas today as a strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane, then likely maintains this range of strength up until a shortly-after-midnight landfall on the eastern coast of Florida most likely between West Palm Beach and Port St. Lucie, after which it will move across the central portion of the peninsula from southeast to northwest, turn northward near the western coast of the northern peninsula portion of the state then cross the eastern panhandle. This will take place with the system as a gradually weakening tropical storm. After this a north northeast turn will take the system across Georgia and into then across the Carolinas Friday as it starts to lose its identity and become absorbed by a frontal boundary and trough of low pressure moving toward the US East Coast. For our area, this means that we see clouds moving in on Friday, Veterans Day, but with rain-free weather for parades and ceremonies during the day. It’s Friday night and the first half of Saturday that is our time window for the wet weather, in the form of fairly widespread showers and downpours (maybe some isolated to scattered thunderstorms). Some of these may produce gusty winds, and we’ll already have windy conditions ahead of the front anyway, but I’m not looking for any real issues with damaging wind. We will have to watch for leaf-clogged storm drains though, and general slippery ground where wet leaves cover it. Use caution if traveling by foot or vehicle Friday night into Saturday. The cold front sweeps through from west to east during the morning and midday hours of Saturday then pushes offshore, and the day ends vastly differently than it begins, with clearing, a a gusty shifting wind, and cooler/dry air moving in after a warm/humid start. Sunday’s weather will be far more typical of November, with a mix of sun and clouds, a gusty breeze, and the chill of later autumn. With the axis of upper level troughing still just to our west, we do have to keep an eye out for additional low pressure development near the East Coast that day. Yesterday, some guidance painted Sunday as a much cloudier, wet day, but at this point I believe model error was a big part of this forecast, and that the more offshore and weaker solution of this unsettled weather is the more likely outcome, so I am going with the fair weather forecast for Sunday at this time – but something to watch, just in case.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Watching for a potential low pressure system to impact the region with some precipitation (probably rain, can’t rule out inland mix/snow) in the November 16-17 window, otherwise much of the period will be dry with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A little more up/down on the temperatures, but below normal overall. Mainly dry pattern – one system may bring passing unsettled weather.

37 thoughts on “Wednesday November 9 2022 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  3. Thank you, TK. Great write up. Also thank you very much for helping me with two weather related questions…one an issue….yesterday. Your help was invaluable

  4. Low was 26 in SE Sutton. We did turn heat on this am to get the chill out of the house. Family is back from SC and heat is almost working as it should.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Agree with your thoughts on Nicole. Heaviest precip will be left of center of course and leave SNE on the warmer, windier, and (relatively) drier side. Watch for SPC to extend some low end wind and tornado probabilities into the region in the coming days though.

    IMO, the 8-14 day pattern looks good for Northeast US snow. And maybe not just a little either. Could certainly turn out more cold/dry, but there’s going to be opportunities on the table.

    So a tropical remnants event and potential accumulating snow within 10 days or so, welcome to November 🙂

    1. I love the volatility of the spring & autumn. 🙂

      One of my thoughts regarding the winter pattern (at least late autumn / early winter) is the degree of blocking influencing whether storms make it to this area or stay to the south. Blocking too strong – storms south – we stay drier up here. What do you think?

      1. I agree that’ll be a big factor. In fact, one of the reasons I like the 8-14 day range for snow is the +NAO pattern. You can still get big snow in a “progressive” pattern; the 12z GFS is very close to it and the end of the Euro run has a similar vibe. You don’t need a 970mb low…

        A lot of people are focused on La Nina again as the main driver of the seasonal pattern. I don’t really see it this time, not as the end all be all. It’ll be a player, but there’s pretty strong indications it’ll weaken rather rapidly over the next 2-3 months. There should be plenty of cold air in the higher latitudes to go around this year, and while the Southeast ridge will be a factor at times, it may actually be a positive for snow lovers this go around in a weaker state by helping to shift the best baroclinic zone closer to SNE, as opposed to too far north.

        And as I know you’ve mentioned, I have no doubt there are effects of the Tonga eruption happening that we basically have no idea how to quantify because nothing like it has really happened in the era of modern meteorology.

        Long story short, while not an overly high confidence outlook, I think winter weather fans are gonna have quite a bit to be happy about this season…

        4. If you saw my post yesterday, Ryan Hanrahan and Eric Fisher are both going above normal for snow this winter as well.

          Now what could possibly go wrong….. 🙂

  12. I think Nicole will be classified a hurricane based on recent recon data. Pressure Down, flight level winds up.

  13. Per the latest GFS runs, I’d watch next Wednesday 11/16, Friday 11/18 and early Thanksgiving week for some potential early season winter weather events,

  20. Ugh. The jeopardy questions are not only too hard for me but it seems also for the champions. The second chance games were great

    We will now return to regularly scheduling programming

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