Saturday November 12 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

A weekend of unsettled weather ushers in a new weather pattern. If you were up early today, you may have seen a glimpse or two of sunshine in eastern MA and RI with breaks in the clouds between last night’s rainfall and the final chapter of the remains of Nicole coming through this morning. The remnant low, combined with a cold front, associated with a large scale trough moving in from the west, will sweep across the region this morning with another round of showers and downpours, a few of which may result in damaging wind gusts, before it all exits by midday. As for the specifics regarding today’s rain, one swath of moderate to heavy showers sweeps from RI through southeastern MA up to about Boston now (before 9AM), and another swath to the west sweeps east northeastward covering most locations from the I-90 belt northward as we move through the morning, exiting via northeastern MA and the NH Seacoast late in the morning. The second half of the day will feature improvement with breaking clouds, increasing sun, a shifting wind, and drying air replacing the almost summer-like humidity we start the day with. Tonight is dry, and cooler, but the colder air holds off for a bit. Once upon a time I forecast a sunnier day for Sunday, in belief that a follow-up area of energy would ignite rainfall mainly offshore, but it’s going to happen further west, so the forecast for Sunday now shares some similarities with today’s in that we’ll have a wet weather threat in the morning to midday hours before improvement. Finally, the colder, dry air overtakes the region Sunday night and Monday. Tuesday, we’ll remain chilly and dry, but clouds will start to increase ahead of the next low pressure system which will be heading rapidly northeastward and is destined to pass not far south of here on Wednesday. This will be close enough to give us a period of rain, but this rain may start as the first snowflakes of the season for parts of the region, especially away from the coast, depending on how quickly it comes in. Just a reminder that winter, while not here yet, is on its way…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with showers likely during the morning, including a slight chance of thunder. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Highs 65-72 early, then cooling through 60s. Dew point 60+ morning, falling quickly afternoon. Wind S 5-15 mph with gusts 25-35 MPH, isolated stronger gusts possible, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: A few passing clouds evening, then more clouds overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty, becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period and right now it looks like any follow-up low pressure systems to the midweek one will stay to the south, keeping our weather generally dry, other than a rain or snow shower which may visit with any northern jet stream disturbances passing by.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Medium range timing speculation brings me to a forecast of briefly milder weather with a rain shower threat to start this period, a quick return to cool/dry weather behind it, then the possibility of another unsettled weather system about Thanksgiving (Nov 24) but very low confidence on this part of the forecast as guidance has not been consistent with that system’s existence. Dry weather would be favored either way for later in the period with near to below normal temperatures. With this being a huge travel time there will be a lot of scrutiny on the forecast so much refining will be needed as we get closer to it. You know how that goes by now…

56 thoughts on “Saturday November 12 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)”

  1. Fitchburg with 62 and Falmouth with 70 represent the range of dew point across the WHW forecast area to start the day. These are at peak and will be crashing big time starting this afternoon. DP’s down in the 40s by evening.

    1. It’s been 68 here since last night…I didn’t ck it before. The range in the area is 66-68. I open my bedroom window every morning to air the room… old habit. This morning I closed it immediately when the yuk air poured in.

      1. I have to admit I enjoy that tropical burst of air in autumn, especially when there are big changes on the way. 🙂

    1. I don’t think so. Less heavier showers, more a period of light-steady rain.

      We just had at least 0.15 in of rain in the past 15 minutes.

      Driving up to the sea wall, there were a couple deep areas of water caused by leaves covering the storm drains.

        1. Probably an average of 15 degrees colder for tomorrow morning’s unsettled weather, yes. You’ll notice it. 🙂

  6. Thanks Tk. Pretty much not that bad here last night. The wind eventually picked up but it wasn’t anything too impressive. I’m off to get a haircut I hope everyone has a wonderful day . No rain here at the moment.

        1. It’s not false at all. Just the way it was expected to go. The end of this thing is actually about 1 hour ahead of where I thought it would be just a few hours ago. 🙂

            1. There will be passing fair-weather clouds from here on though. Eventually the lower atmosphere will dry out enough so those dissipate.

  13. Thanks TK
    Sun is out and I am going to enjoy this mild day. I can’t wait for the snow to start falling now that the leaves are down and raking the leaves is almost done.

  15. Thanks TK.

    Partly sunny and still 68 here in Coventry CT. Dewpoint is down to 58.

    1.49” total in the rain gauge.

  16. 12z GFS for Wednesday:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022111212&fh=108

    12z GGEM for Wednesday:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022111212&fh=96

    Pretty similar with the exception that the GFS is a bit slower with the timing. Both track the storm to our southeast but don’t rapidly strengthen it so it’s mostly a rain event for SNE. Accumulating snow in parts of eastern NY, VT, NH, and ME.

      1. For areas away from Boston it ends up being an average of near to ever so slightly below normal if you take that stat into account soley. There will be factors working against that this time. 🙂

        I love to see all the Twitter musings and snippets of thoughts leading into the season…

          1. JR & Pete going back and forth is always a favorite because they were school mates. Fun to see that. 🙂 I’ll still never forget the pizza bet on Facebook when they were both at 7.

            1. Working with them is a very special memory. They are the best of the best….both as Mets and as kind, caring men.

  19. Thank you, TK.

    Since I’ve been MIA, I may have missed a snowfall prediction post. It may be too early to predict.

    Saw lots of t-shirts and shorts today. I partook in the t-shirt wearing, but balked at shorts. Perhaps the last t-shirt day for a while, though we can always get balmy (60s) days – even during cold winters – in December, January, and February. In fact, this occurred on multiple occasions in January of 1978. The flash freezes that followed balmy conditions were epic. In all my lifetime, I never saw a quicker drop in temperature than I did in mid to late January 1978. Can’t recall the exact date.

    1. January 26 (the day of Chicago’s Blizzard of ’78). We had a warm windy rainstorm with temps and dew points both in the 60s, and by the end of the day it had fallen to the teens.

      January 1978 is still the most dynamic month of weather I can recall in all my years of observing it.

  20. I feel at the moment that the ECMWF has the best handle on the pattern through about 7 days. The GFS seems to be almost right there with it. A few differences but nothing glaring regarding sensible weather for the next 7 or 8 days.

    To be expected, the GFS shows some inconsistency on what takes place beyond that, but the overall idea is still not too far from what I outlined in my 6-10 & 11-15 day outlooks, which mentions the uncertainty anyway.

    Tomorrow’s AM rain was well-forecast by both models a few days in advance. Sometimes when I see something “suddenly” show up on guidance I am reluctant to buy into it. It did that on both models, then kind of went away, only to come back again. Maybe it’s just warming us up for winter model mayhem – haha!

    The Nov 16-18 window can now be narrowed down to Nov 16 for the next system. Major models agree, and there is consistency on the last several runs, so I don’t see many changes. The things left to work out are whether or not anybody sees early flakes before rain and how quickly the low intensifies while passing by. The GFS’s version of events is a little weaker than the ECMWF’s version, but they are not worlds apart either. They are not too excited about snowflakes close to Boston, and that’s probably going to be the case – but worth watching anyway with several days to go before the event.

    I like the chilly / dry idea for the rest of next week. Both models have that overall but the GFS does take another wave of low pressure close enough for some South Coast precipitation later Friday. Not buying that version right now – leaning toward ECMWF.

    Either way it looks like I’ll be dressing in a few layers for the Thanksgiving parade in Plymouth MA on November 19. Chilly just like last year’s, but looking dry!

    1. Make sure to say hi to my colleagues that will be seen throughout the parade. I have recruited about 60 people that will be carrying banners and spotting floats. Thankfully the bank bought us nice jackets and knit hats this year!

      1. I think it’s absolutely phenomenal that ch5 is involved in this & now shows it live . I can’t wait to see the ch5 float that’s being made now for this year , Doug was mentioning it last week

        1. I’m gonna try to say hi to them as I should be there a bit earlier. I need a good phone charger. It’s gonna be cold and I take 100s of photos. 😉

  21. I am looking forward to the 2022-23 Boston vs. Worcester snowfall battle. Boston has an opportunity to beat Worcester in consecutive seasons which it never has. Beating NYC most years is sort of boring. 😉

    I definitely will keep track over the upcoming winter. If Boston loses as usual, I’ll just go back to the usual BOS – NYC “rivalry”.

    Maybe the atmosphere can pull off one more “upset”. We will see TK. 🙂

    2021-22 = BOS 54.0” ORH 53.6”

    1. I hope we get little snowfall & more seasonable days vs really cold days . That seems to me the trend that it’s been doing the past winters , would you agree

    1. Below normal. The CPC outlook and guidance were excellent in predicting this pattern shift pretty far in advance.

    2. I hope so. Paying for AC at this time of year is frustrating. The upstairs is 79 degrees. Even downstairs is 73 which is fine but I have the fan running

  23. TK – Will Worcester score the first “accumulating” flakes come Wednesday? 😉

    Following every snow event, I plan to post the “score” in the BOS-ORH rivalry anyway. If Boston comes up just short, that in and of itself would be a great “moral” victory given the fact that Worcester’s average snowfall is 73 inches. That’s a lot imo considering it’s located just 40 or so miles due west of the I-95 corridor if you think about it. 🙂

    1. I don’t expect any measurable snow at Boston or Worcester from that system.

      It will be fun to see your tracking of the amounts during the season though. I like to see people have fun with the weather. 🙂

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