Monday November 14 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

This next 5 days will feature generally below normal temperatures, but there will be one brief exception during the passage of the only storm system of the period, on Wednesday, when we’ll see a wider range across the region including a quick push of milder air for the South Coast region. First, high pressure centered to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada is the recipe for a gusty breeze today, which will ease tonight as the high center moves across the region. Tuesday, while we stay dry and chilly we start to cloud over in advance of low pressure, which will be passing by to our south on Wednesday, but close enough for a period of precipitation, generally a rain event, but during the first few hours cold enough for snow and sleet with minor accumulation on colder surfaces mainly outside of I-95 and north of I-90, favoring the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH – the first little bout of wintry weather for the season. Exit the storm system Wednesday evening, and return chilly and dry weather, although a passing rain or snow shower may visit a few locations during Thursday as an upper level disturbances moves across the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/sleet mainly central to northeastern MA and southern NH developing overnight with some light rain and possible mix elsewhere. Minor snow accumulation possible higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain ends early. Lows 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected for the November 19-20 weekend with a northwesterly air flow from Canada. Moderating temperatures early in the week along with a possible day of unsettled weather November 22 depending on the integrity of the next disturbance coming along. Dry and seasonably cool at period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Continued medium range guidance inconsistency out in this time range. No big changes to my overall ideas of looking for a potential unsettled weather threat in the November 24 (Thanksgiving) and 25 (Black Friday) time frame, and another one before the end of the period with variable temperatures. There will be a lot of refining and fine-tuning to come.

47 thoughts on “Monday November 14 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  2. Another reminder: Take medium range forecast model panels not-too-seriously regarding details beyond day 4. This hasn’t changed.

    Seeing a lot of posts on Twitter about the first “big” snow threats based on one run of the ECMWF & one run of the GFS (at different times) that each showed this, only to disappear on runs that came after that. These posts are coming from people who don’t really have any business trying to forecast the weather for the public. Those are not “snow threats” until we know there is a system to track that may be just that. They are just model forecasts that are going to struggle with features from run to run. That’s the mets job to figure out. But the kiddies on Twitter will continue to play anyway – so hopefully people are paying attention. 🙂

  8. Here is a photo of the WCVB on air team circa 1980 posted by Mark Rosenthal to his FB page. Can you spot the 3 Mets?
    Dick Albert, Bob Copeland and Bill Hovey? among many other well known personalities.

    https://ibb.co/n3BLdM1

    Here is a photo posted to Mark Rosenthal’s FN page some time ago. I had posted it before, but thought it was worth re-posted.
    Awesome photos of some Great Ones!!!

    https://ibb.co/XYv8z1F

          2. It would be normal if they do. Their first flakes average date is well ahead of Boston’s. 🙂

      1. I randomly check through non snowy times! 🙂 And all things are about as well as they can be except growing a (thankfully benign) neurofibroma tumor in my upper arm lol.

        1. Sorry to hear about the neurofibroma but very glad it is benign. And excellent news that all else is all right.

      1. The last time Boston had a 30-degree difference over 2 days was February 22-23. Boston was 69 on 2/23 and 32 on 2/24. It happens a lot more often than you might think.

  16. Here are the on air 1980 Ch. 5 names that I recognize from JPD’s post above: 🙂

    Chet Curtis
    Natalie Jacobson
    Jack Hynes
    Tom Ellis
    Bob Clinksdale
    Clark Booth
    Bill Hovey
    Dick Albert
    Bob Copeland
    Bill O’Connell
    Don Gillis
    Chuck Kramer
    Jorge Quiroga
    Jim Boyd
    Anne McGrath
    Karen Holmes Ward

    4 faces I recognize but can’t recall their names.

    Why isn’t Mark Rosenthal in the picture?

      1. We are 30 now. May need heat. Not bad getting to mid November with the exception of testing it a few nights ago and for 30 minutes this morning. So I guess I can’t say no heat

  19. Thanks TK.

    Nice to see most of the ski resorts up north blowing snow top to bottom on several of their trails today. Nice extended stretch of freezing temperatures should allow for continuous snowmaking and many areas opening for this coming weekend. The natural snow on Wednesday will certainly help as well.

    Of course if the 18z GFS is correct, the ski areas wont need any snowmaking and will all be 100% open in two weeks 🙂

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022111418&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. I’ll be at my mothers in Upstate NY for Thanksgiving Weekend and will be enjoying the 43″ of snow as it falls. Don’t worry, I’ll be sure to post some pictures here.

      1. Does your mom have extra places at the Table….not many. My son is working so just my girls and well their family, so maybe 10.

        1. Absolutely. And if we run out of space, we can carve an auxiliary snow igloo in the backyard for additional seating.

    1. Precisely why I expressed my displeasure with the Twitter posts of the “first real snow threat” … But they’ll never stop at this point. 🙂 They just don’t get it.

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