Tuesday November 15 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)

92 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A frosty morning greeted early-risers today, not that we haven’t seen frost already in much of the area this autumn, but areas that had not seen it previously have now, and many areas that had not seen a hard freeze previously also now have, with only a few urban and immediate coastal exceptions left. Those areas will get there too before too long in this newly emerged weather pattern, which features below normal temperatures for a while – a well-forecast pattern by medium range guidance I might add. Today, we start bright, but end cloudy as high pressure over us now loosens its grip and gives way to approaching low pressure from the southwest. This low center will give us an unsettled Wednesday with precipitation arriving from southwest to northeast in the late evening hours as rain South Coast, snow in many areas near and north of I-90, and a mix area between. The quicker it comes in, the longer it can snow where that takes place. This may make some areas a little slick for the early part of Wednesday’s commute, but a quick transition to rain will be underway already. Equally if not more hazardous across the region will be wet leaves in areas they cover roads and walkways, as well as some possible flooding around clogged catch basins. Keep all of these potential hazards in mind if needing to travel early Wednesday. Later in the day the rainfall will taper off and clearing will commence but not until after dark. Thursday through Saturday will feature mainly dry, chilly weather with a northwesterly air flow. Upper level low pressure having to cross the region on Thursday, however, will bring with it a chance of a few passing light rain and snow showers (snow showers most likely interior hills).

TODAY: Sunny start / mostly cloudy finish. Highs 43-50. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arriving overnight as snow/sleet southern NH and northeastern through central MA with up to around 1 inch of snow/sleet in highest elevations southwestern NH / north central MA with rain South Coast and some mix between but no accumulation of snow beyond a brief coating on cold surfaces, then all areas rain by about dawn. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, ending in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands shifting to NW during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Dry weather and below normal temperatures to finish off the weekend into early next week, then moderating temperatures and mainly dry into midweek. May have a low pressure or frontal system approaching by Thanksgiving (Nov 24) but that’s day 10 and really too soon for any detail.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Unsettled weather potential to start the period, and again very late in the period, otherwise mainly dry with temperatures near to below normal.

92 thoughts on “Tuesday November 15 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)”

    1. Good question.

      Logan has reported 33F the past few hours, but its certainly possible it dipped to 32F in btwn hourly reports.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    First time below 32 this season here in JP as we dropped to 28.

    Up till now, I didn’t think JP had a chance to see any snow flakes at the outset of this upcoming event. However, now I think
    we have a 50-50 chance of seeing a touch of snow here before
    it quickly transitions to rain. We shall see. 🙂

  6. Good morning. Our first truly hard freeze. We had frost at 8:30 last night. At 6;00 it was a balmy 21 degrees. Gotta love it.

  7. I recall 30 years ago today. It stayed cold enough all day for winter jackets as we waited in Thompson CT for our oldest’s first pony to be vetted. A couple photos of Kim (around 13) and Cabaret. A show in Westfield and on Hampton beach.

    https://imgur.com/a/WQDUti3

    2. I thought today was the 16th. Oops. I did check and my memory is not off. Thompson CT’s high on the 16th was 35

  8. 12Z HRRR for Midnight tonight.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2022111512&fh=17&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Hmmm, see any OCEAN influence there?

    850 MB temperature CERTAINLY support snow at this hour. but alas, the surface does not

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850th&rh=2022111512&fh=17&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct&rh=2022111512&fh=17&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I wish this Pivotal Weather HRRR had the 900 mb temps, but it does not.

    I still think there is a chance for a touch of snow here in JP.
    We shall see. 🙂

  10. If this was January, precipitation type would not be an issue. Even now, there is plenty of cold air to work with. It’s just a bit too warm at the surface with ocean temperatures. Correct?

    1. Initially, yes I believe you are correct. That ole boundary layer issue when the Ocean is too warm. However, with this system
      warm air will be advecting aloft, so it would be transitioning to rain or perhaps sleet even in January.

      But at the onset, plenty cold enough aloft for snow, so it
      has to be the boundary layer.

  11. Depending on the wind direction, which may vary between NW and SW during our very cool weather Friday and beyond, some of the lake effect streamers may make it into northern New England and western Mass. Combined with temps below freezing the majority of time, mountain areas that choose to make snow should be able to build up a decent base on a few trails for some decent Thanksgiving weekend skiing.

        1. Nice !

          Its been really busy lately during school days, so its kinda snuck up that its mid November today. We’re getting to a date where it can reasonable to snow closer or at the coastline.

          But it feels like it was mid-late October about 2 seconds ago.

            1. It could easily have passed for mid-late September as well. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we get widespread snows by early December.

              Eric on air gave heads up regarding snowblowers, shovels etc. Wonder if there’s something in the medium range pipeline?

              1. There really isn’t anything solid through day 15.

                Otherwise getting the snowblowers and shovels would be sound advice anyway since the next 4 months after this one contain winter. 😉

  16. Currently SNOWING over most of PA. 🙂
    However, I see coastal RAIN beginning to sneak in.
    We shall see what it does when it gets up here. 🙂

  17. NWS radar

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJ3ZWF0aGVyIiwiY2VudGVyIjpbLTc0LjkzOCw0MC41MjJdLCJsb2NhdGlvbiI6Wy02Ni41NDQsNDIuNzQzXSwiem9vbSI6N30sImFuaW1hdGluZyI6dHJ1ZSwiYmFzZSI6InN0YW5kYXJkIiwiYXJ0Y2MiOmZhbHNlLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJyZmMiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6dHJ1ZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOmZhbHNlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC44LCJsb2NhbCI6MC42LCJsb2NhbFN0YXRpb25zIjowLjgsIm5hdGlvbmFsIjowLjZ9fQ%3D%3D

    Intellicast radar with precip depiction

    https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/hfd

  19. I sense a typical wintertime coastal front setting up for tomorrow. This would probably be a slopperama for the coastline anyway if this was January. Better this setup now in mid-November.

    55 coast
    40 inland

  25. Thanks TK.

    Snowing now here in Coventry CT but the thermometer is still reading 38. A co-worker in Hartford right now said it is “snowing golf balls”

  26. Vicki, I saw the forecast discussion and WSW statement out of the NWS Buffalo last night and there was some serious wording in there regarding the upcoming Thursday to Sunday Lake Effect snow event. They used the words “historic” and “crippling”, and the statement speaks of “multiple feet” of snow. You know it is serious when they are issuing a watch on Monday for an event occurring Thursday through Sunday.

    The talk about the 2000 lake effect snow event as a CIPS analog event where people got stranded in their cars and 4-6 feet of snow fell.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BUF&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    1. Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills, Sunday @ 1pm.

      I do love watching football games in snow storms. Wonder what direction the wind will be blowing Sunday and if that will place the plume over the stadium.

      1. If that band sets up in SW-NE orientation and parks over downtown Buffalo for the better part of 3-4 days, you are going to probably see a State of Emergency in the City and the game postponed.

        The exact placement of these bands is so hard to pinpoint.
        From the NWS discussion it sounds like the band is going to start south of the City, then edge north over the City and park there before lifting north into Niagara County and then back south over the City. They also mention the potential for additional lake effect beyond the watch period.

        Could be one for the ages!

  27. Vicki I just found your first flakes., just started here as I type , they should be in your area anytime now. I know it’s not even thanksgiving yet but in my head I’m humming Christmas carols. ENJOY!

    1. So so cool I was thinking of you. The line seems to just get to us and then stall out. I came inside as it was getting chilly. But am watching on the camera

      Enjoy.

  29. Deck is now white here.

    I believe it is actually 100% snow. It was coming down so hard at first that the heavy wet flakes sounded like sleet.

    Temp has gone down from 38 to 34.

    1. And check out those warm anomalies over the Atlantic just off shore. Perhaps ripe for the development of some early season coastal storms.

  32. Same here mark , everything covered with a 1/2 “ driveway and street included I’m surprised but it is snowing hard. And it’s 32 on the dot.

  35. This reminds me of a night in November of 1983, Monday November 14 to be exact, as I was standing outside on my street staring at the streetlight, waiting for the first flakes of the season. 🙂

  38. Hey y’all. hope you had a nice summer. Must be near winter if I’m coming out of hiding.

    Just getting back from card night. 1/2″ snow. Back roads are slick. Pretty.

  39. Closing in on 2” and snowing at a good clip right now, can’t say I expected this, but it’s a pleasant surprise. It’s great snowball snow, my youngest son and I rolled a giant snowball until it was time for early bed because it’s a school night, even though he tried his best to convince me to let him stay up later because he thinks there will be no school tomorrow.

  42. I’ll call the forecast for that snow “so-so” at best. It was earlier than expected by up to 3 hours (oh well!) and there was over 1 inch in some locations when I expected nobody to get over 1 except maybe somewhere like Fitchburg into southwestern NH in isolated spots. Not “terrible” by definition, but you know, winter’s comin’ so I gotta be on my game! 😉

    At least the idea of snow for some areas before a general rain event was pretty much correct. 🙂

    New weather post…

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