Wednesday November 16 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Our first little bout with “winter weather” has occurred with some snow at the start of our rainstorm last night. But with warm ground and brief duration this has not caused any real issues, even with up to nearly 2 inches falling in some of the higher elevations of interior portions of the WHW forecast area. Any remaining slushy snow on the ground from that will disappear today as we see the rain taper off and end, but the clouds hang on. Eventually the air will start to dry out as a northeasterly wind shifts to northwest. After this, the weather through the weekend will feature mostly dry conditions, a gusty breeze at times, and below normal temperatures. The only additional precipitation chances we have are a potential passing brief shower of rain or snow on Thursday as an upper disturbance passes, and a passing snow flurry possibility Sunday as a reinforcing cold front moves through.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Rain ending southwest to northeast by midday. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands shifting to NW during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Thanksgiving Week starts dry with below normal temperatures, followed by a temperature moderation and eventually some unsettled weather toward Thanksgiving afternoon or “Black Friday” – timing as well as details of that potential unsettled weather system can’t quite be determined yet.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

The final 5 days of November should feature near to below normal temperatures in general with some variability. While there is continued (but not unexpected) inconsistency in medium range guidance for these days, the idea I have right now is a few showers of one kind of precipitation or another at the very start of the period with the departure of the system I’m watching for just after Thanksgiving, and then around mid period the chance of additional precipitation (probably rain but too soon to say for sure) around the middle of the period.

64 thoughts on “Wednesday November 16 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Many on WHW saw their first flakes last night ….. so, are we good ? Fast forward to Memorial Day Weekend ??

    I suppose it needs to snow in Jamaica Plain for a certain someone. 🙂

    Moderate to heavy rain here and its in the low-mid 50s.

    1. saw some brief snow last night after 1130 PM. Started as rain, then mixed and snowed before going back to rain.

  6. Thank you, TK. Forecast smorecast….it was a perfect first snow. Kids, pups, and nana had an absolute blast.

  7. Thanks TK and Dr S for letting me know Pete gave a mention of me on air. I had watched because he asked me what we had. I figured he’d add Sutton to his numbers because that’s just Pete. I didn’t expect him to mention who the number was from

    Dr S I saw you said you recorded it. I don’t know where to find it. I’ll enlist my daughters help 🙂

        1. Thank you again. Grandkids got a kick out of watching. He is just a good person and always true to himself. JR is much the same.

    1. Philip,

      Did you see any snow last night?

      It starting raining here and rained for awhile and then it started mixing and finally went over to snow around or shortly after 11:30 PM. Temp went from 41 down to 36. 🙂 I presume it went back to rain not long after it went to snow.

      1. No JPD I never saw any snow whenever I looked out my window. It probably did snow in my neighborhood since officially Logan received a Trace. There were times when I looked, it wasn’t even raining. I guess I missed everything. Oh well. 🙂

        Until Logan receives at least 0.1” my posted score will remain at 0. AFAIC a Trace is zero, for all practical purposes. 😉

    2. Note: Worcester officially received 2.0” on the nose! I won’t just “round off” when I post amounts. 🙂

  15. How Boston/Logan even received a “Trace” is very surprising. I expected a few seconds of sleet pellets at the very beginning at best.

    1. And yet, Logan officially reported “light snow”.

      Was the cold air more entrenched than expected? I believe one of the tv mets this morning on air seemed surprised as much snow fell as it did, even in the typical locations.

      On the 11:00 newscast, the radar showed most of the state was in deep “blue” (and I’m not talking politics).

      1. I was in Boston (well Chestnut Hill) last evening. Leaving Newton around 9:30, it was drizzle and 40 degrees. It became a light raim and down to 37 when I got onto 128 at Route 9. Getting off at Route 20, it was down to 35 and mixing. It quickly changed to all snow and 32 in Weston. Dropping my friend off in Sudbury, there was about 1/2″ on the grass and most of the roads were slushy or snow covered. Coming back, it got back above 32 and went to all rain down in Needham. Stopped at Wegmans in Westwood, and when I come out at 10:30, it was snow and sleet and 34 degrees. Had a mix of snow/sleet/rain all the way back to Brockton. Heard the sling pinging off the skylight until Midnight or so.

        1. BTW, the snow at Logan occurred with a temp of 37. In my forecasts the night before, I had the rain starting a little after midnight with a few flakes mixed in, and temperatures rising all night after an evening low around 38. I think the fact that the precip came in a few hours earlier than expected, before the winds went NE and allowed temps to rise, is why there was a little more snow than expected.

    1. This is down considerably from the other day where they
      were forecasting 4-6 feet. Not that 2-3 feet is anything shabby.

  18. Gonna stay with my scenario for now. I think the GFS has too much cold high.

    Also timing issues with guidance out that far. Not really sure how it all resolves.

    Either way, lots of time to iron it out. 🙂

    And no I don’t want anything, especially the 26th – two major events on my calendar that day…

  20. Gonna be a chilly one for the Plymouth Thanksgiving parade on Saturday .. no change to that outlook. The weather reminds me somewhat of what it was like last year for the event on Nov 20 – dry and chilly.

  21. TK – The night that you were looking up at the streetlight on November 14, 1983 waiting for your first flakes of the season, did those flakes materialize? Just wondering. 😉

  23. Curious about Sunday’s Bills-Browns game in Orchard Park.
    This from WGRZ from about four hours ago:

    The game remains scheduled for a 1:00 p.m. kickoff at Highmark Stadium.

    A Lake Effect Snow Warning has been issued for Erie County that is expected to begin hitting late Thursday through Sunday morning. Upwards of one to two feet of snow have been forecast.

    There is precedent, based on the potential impact, to change either the start time or location of the game.

    Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott said at a press conference Wednesday he has not been informed of any contingencies, and the plan is to play at 1:00 p.m. Sunday in Orchard Park. He did say they have looked at options to help players get to practice Friday, and the team hotel in downtown Buffalo Saturday night.

    An NFL spokesperson gave the following statement to 2-On-Your-Side’s Adam Benigni.

    “We continue to monitor the weather and have been in contact with both clubs. If anything changes, we will let you know.”

  24. It should come as no surprise that the winter storm from the 12z GFS that prompted all the Tweets (again) has vanished on the 18z run……… 😉

    2. November climatology wouldn’t support that much snow around here anyway, correct TK?

      I say let’s wait for Christmas. 🙂

      1. Well you just have to look at the averages for November – pretty low at Boston, a little more as you go inland. Simply how the beginning of the season goes. First flakes are normally in November for our region, but “a lot” of snow (relatively) in this month of November is somewhat rare. You have your events, but they are not common.

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