Monday November 21 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Thanksgiving Week has arrived and as we all know, the next few days are big travel days, locally, regionally, and beyond for people heading out, coming in, or just picking up last minute grocery items to cook dinner. Weather can have a big impact on getting around, but this year leading up to Thanksgiving it’s going to have very little impact, except maybe some solar glare for driving for a few hours combined – morning and afternoon. It’s not too often that we can look at 4 straight days in November this way, let alone those days being leading up to and including Thanksgiving. We’ll accomplish this with high pressure in control, its center generally to our south and west, and a new one centered to our north on the holiday itself. A weak trough will slide through the region tonight, keeping its snow showers north of our region. Temperatures will be at their coldest today, with slight moderation to follow, then a cold front will push through late on Wednesday, again with no impact other than shifting our wind direction and bringing in slightly cooler air for the holiday. Thanksgiving Day will start bright as the next 3 days will be, but clouds will be moving in ahead of the next storm system, which seems destined to bring a rain event for Black Friday, as the low center will be tracking to our west and northwest…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH this morning, SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, then W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 42-49. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coastal areas, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

As we move into the remainder of Thanksgiving Weekend, my method of A.M.E. (anticipated model error) is being used heavily for this forecast. Expecting the low pressure that impacts the region on Friday with rain to be moving north of our region early Saturday with relatively mild air in place and additional rain showers, followed by a dry and breezy end to the day with the start of falling temperatures, leading to a windier, chilly finish to the weekend on Sunday November 27 with dry weather anticipated. Behind this another wave of low pressure brings the chance of rain for Monday November 28, based on current expecting timing of systems, followed by the return to dry weather and near to below normal temperatures for the last couple of days of the month. Obviously with inconsistency in guidance (disagreement between models and differences in each model run to run) the confidence in this forecast is limited – but this is how I think it plays out right now. Adjustments will be made as needed…

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Best I can gauge right now, December opens up with a fairly benign weather pattern, up and down temperatures averaging close to normal, and one or two minor precipitation events around air mass changes with a generally zonal flow pattern.

40 thoughts on “Monday November 21 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)”

  2. ** Reminder **

    2022-2023 snowfall contest. Deadline for guesses end of November 30.

    Go to the menu tab that says ‘SNOWFALL CONTEST 2022-2023″ and click it, then add your guesses to the nearest 10th of an inch of snow for the season for
    Boston MA
    Worcester MA
    Providence RI
    Hartford CT

    If you change your mind after your initial guess(es) on any or all of the cities, you may change them up through the deadline, but to be fair to all, no changes can be made starting at 12:00:00 a.m. on December 1. Any measurable snow that falls (or has fallen) at any of these places before the end of November, while not likely to be helpful to you, is still an equal advantage to all in the contest. The final snow totals for all locations would include this, since we are guessing the actual snowfall for the entire season, not starting on December 1. 🙂 Just want to make sure we are clear on that…

    1. Thanks for reposting. I was going to but got sidetracked trying to get a kitten that’s been living under our neighbors deck for a while.

  4. Another reminder in case you missed it on the last blog…
    For those who use it, I renewed the weekly Covid chat post as well.

  9. Thanks TK.

    Just wondering. Any chance of backside snow for Buffalo with the Friday-Saturday system?

    Perhaps we could also post guesses as to what date Buffalo sees bare ground again. I suppose not likely the rest of this year.

    If I read correctly, the official snowfall for Buffalo/Orchard Park was 77 inches!

    2. People might be surprised how fast that snow could melt.

      Depends on the moisture content in it. If some or all of it was dry, sublimation and compacting could get rid of half of it in a matter of a day and then, if they go through an overnight thaw (>32F) cycle or relatively higher dps, a lot of it can go poof really fast.

      Now, if it is a higher density, wetter snow, than it will take longer to melt.

  10. Well, lets see what the 12z GFS does for late week.

    Completely unphased, somewhat phased, fully phased ???? …..

    dazed and confused …….. 🙂

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Meteor frightens some in Norway. https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1594613408778838016

    By the way, if you think it’s getting dark here, just go to Norway. Even the Netherlands – where I lived – is much darker than here. There is no comparison; both in terms of actual light hours and accompanying weather. The mornings are especially difficult to get used to. At my high school classes began at 8am. From late November through late January it’s completely dark at 8am. In mid December it doesn’t get light out until 8.45am. Even then it’s not really light out. The dreary overcast weather – which is almost daily there – makes it still seem quite dimly light. By 3.30pm whatever light there was is fast disappearing.

    On the flip side, in summer it’s light out until 10.30pm.

    2. My daughter-in-law grew up in western Michigan. She remembers it getting light during first period class for a good chunk of the late autumn and winter.

  12. Low of 19, went outside to do yard work at 23 degrees, worked for 2 hours, no problem. I was in the sun most of the time with light wind as the temp was creeping up but still well under freezing. I’m glad I did it. I ppd my final yard cleanup / mowing yesterday due to wind so I made use of lighter wind this morning and will finish it all off tomorrow morning after one more quick session in a sheltered area this afternoon. In between that I am about to drive up to Hampton Beach to dip my feet in the water for November, which I have not done yet, and must do before the month ends. 🙂

    Hampton water temp is 51 and air temp should be about 38 when I get there. I love that feeling of going into water that’s warmer than the air, which is most likely between October (depending on the day) and February. March can go either way as it can be frigid outside or you can get early warmth as the water is just coming off its lowest temps of the year.

    My record coldest so far is 21 degree air temp and 38 degree water temp for this monthly activity in early 2021 (I think it was the January one). The worst one in terms of feeling cold was 2 months later in March when while it was not frigid outside it was very chilly and the wind was whipping, so I had ocean water drying, which cools your temp, wind chill, and sand blasting into my feet.

    And then there was last year when I did it and then did a secondary barefoot “dip” into a layer of snow on the beach. 😉 I always take pics to prove it.

  13. Thanks TK and good call on Friday.

    12z GFS and 12z GGEM basically have just a frontal passage now on Friday with a few showers. No phased system.

    Both models however do bring the next southern stream system in hot on its heals for a rainy Sunday.

    1. So instead of a Friday/Saturday washout, a Sunday washout. That figures. Murphy’s law and holiday weekends, every time. Just what return travelers need.

  14. Joshua,

    If the Sunshine Protection Act passes Congress, those 8:00 +am sunrises will be realized here in SNE all winter long. This law would have year round DST. For now, I believe the bill is stuck in the House where a number of Republicans are against it. The medical community believes that we would be much more “healthier” with year round STANDARD TIME.

    I read a comment from a mother in Detroit that their sunrises would be as late as 9:30 so I imagine sunrises would be even later further west.

  15. Thanks, TK…

    “Lessons” going well today. 🙂
    England 6, Iran 2
    The Netherlands 2, Senegal 0

    USA v. Wales at 2 pm

    1. It’s rare to see 6 goals in ANY soccer game. That’s one main reason I don’t get it. Hardly any scoring. The first team to score 1 or 2 goals wins. No wonder it’s never really caught on here.

      I did like the NASL with Pele back in the 1970s though. I even went to a Tea Men playoff game in the old Schaffer Stadium once. 🙂

  17. Philip, it would be very risky to declare Sunday a wash-out on the Monday before, based on models that can’t forecast their way out of a paper bag right now. 😉

    If you want my educated anticipated model error guess, that system is more likely to occur on Monday (one week from now) than it is on Sunday. I’ll get back to you on that. Forecast above stands as is, for now. 🙂

  18. Here’s the photographic proof of me standing in the ocean water at Hampton Beach NH shortly after noontime today.

    Air temp: 33.
    Water temp: 51.

    Photo taken by my son…

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/i6ic2toQjA9TphS2A

    Don’t worry, the pants are essentially waterproof. They were drier than my feet by the time I got back to my car. 🙂

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