Sunday November 27 2022 Forecast (7:25AM)

52 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Low pressure that was once temporarily stuck in the Texas area has decided it’s “time to fly” and will be moving rapidly northeastward toward our area today and moving through tonight with some wet weather accompanying its passage. A follow up area of energy will prolong the cloudiness and a rain shower chance into Monday morning, after which we see a return to fair weather with the departure of low pressure and approach / arrival of high pressure through Tuesday. But this won’t last too long either as the next storm system, a stronger low destined for a track through the Great Lakes and far southeastern Canada, drags a frontal boundary our way later Wednesday with more rain showers heading this way that day. All the while we’ll have a mild stretch to end November. December arrives Thursday and we should be watching that cold front fly offshore and a shot of drier, chilly air moving in at that time, with wind…

TODAY: Filtered to dimmed sunshine with lots of high clouds morning. Generally overcast afternoon – light rain chance increases west to east. Highs 49-56. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog forming. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Sunshine and passing clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 39-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the evening. Breaking clouds followed by clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning then falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

High pressure brings fair weather with seasonable temperatures December 2-3, then milder with a chance of rain showers December 4 as low pressure passes north of the region. Cooler air follows. Starting to watch for additional unsettled weather by the end of the period but it’s way out there so no details possible.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

This period should find us in a battle zone between the mild US Southeast and the colder Canada. Pattern looks a little more unsettled and variable in temperature during this time, as I have mentioned the previous couple blogs. Obviously looking out this far I cannot provide you with detailed guesses on any particular days / systems with that kind of set-up.

52 thoughts on “Sunday November 27 2022 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    It was a very pretty “burnt Orange” sunrise early this morning. 🙂

    Could Days 11-15 bring our first snow potential? I love those “battles” with Canada. 😉

    1. It certainly could. We’re at the time of year where any battle can include that as a possible outcome this far in advance. How we see things getting closer will help bring that into focus.

      I’ve been of the opinion the last several days that the colder aspect of that pattern may be a touch slower to evolve. The reason: Guidance in general under-forecast the Southeast ridge a little bit. It’s strong enough to put a bit of a delay on things. Not the first time we’ve seen this with a potential pattern shift. Won’t be the last. And the GFS is notorious for forecasting changes too quickly. I’m hoping that may be one bias that is at least partially corrected with the new upgrade, just 48 hours away…

      1. I was thinking this morning that while the GFS has sniffed out (sorry, I love Eric’s term) some events early on, it certainly saw something that wasn’t this past weekend. Yesterday was spectacular. Today maybe we get a piece of what it saw, but nothing that compares. Sighhhh

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Still looking for something down the road and all I see is a cutterpalooza!!

    So far, I am sickened by what I see.
    Sure hope things change soon.

    1. Go with my idea. Slower evolution. You’ll be less disappointed if you lower your expectations for a while. 😉

      1. I don’t really have any expectations. I just keep looking for something. I have a bad feeling about this Winter despite what has been prognosticated. 🙂

    1. I’ll find out how he’s doing very soon. I can tell you my improvement over yesterday is vast. 🙂

      I fell asleep before I took my Tylenol last night and I’m without it in my system for 14 hours now and my fever has not returned, no chills, body aches are gone, cough is “there” but it has switched to the “recovery cough” over the “I’m getting sicker” cough. I know you probably get what I mean by that. Taste is already improving. Appetite has been good throughout so that’s still good.

      Hopefully he’s not far behind me. He was about 24-36 hours behind me in general.

  8. Judah Cohen’s winter forecast:

    Swings in cold versus warm temperatures something like what November has been. Referred to a little more than usual expansion and contraction of the polar vortex during this winter bringing mild and less mild periods. Snow prediction for us: 43.8.”

    I sort of felt as though he was saying that the net effect would be an “average winter.” (If there is such a thing.) Just the vibe I got.

    2. All of the winter forecasts I believe ( and it’s not bad ) they seem to have a big IF factor & that’s why I believe this winter in what happens is a big wildcard factor , would you agree with this Tk .

      1. I agree with the forecast that I posted on November 22. Whatever I wrote there. 🙂

        The only real big wildcard in my opinion is the Tonga volcanic eruption. Everything else is within reasonable frames.

        This will be a winter that is snowier than last, but not by much (assuming I’m right), and colder than last, but not by much (again assuming I’m right). I don’t see any need to change it. 🙂

  9. As of November 24 2022, the snowcover in the Northern Hemisphere is at its highest in over just 5 1/2 decades for that date.

      1. Nope. Minor. This is snowcover, not snow amount. The amount of coverage there is not really much higher than an average active Great Lakes snow pattern. That region is TINY compared to the entire hemisphere, so it adds very little influence in the big picture.

  10. I am wondering now if climate change is making long range winter forecasts more difficult than decades ago. It seems too many “wildcards”nowadays. That goes for summer/hurricane forecasts as well.

    1. Nope. Long range forecasting, IMO, is getting slightly better because of the ability to look at the different things that impact the making of the forecast. There are always “wildcards”. The only reason you hear about more of them, is because we KNOW what more of them are. 🙂

      This science is actually moving forward, not in reverse. 🙂

  12. Given how I am feeling about this Winter, here is my snowfall guess. Yes, I have posted on the contest page.

    I am submitting my Snowfall guess and believe me that is all it is. I just don’t have a good vibe for this Winter, so here goes…

    Boston:27.3
    Worcester: 36.7
    Providence: 22.1
    Hartford: 29.2

    Going low, perhaps a little reverse Psychology???
    So, I win even if I am wrong. 🙂

    1. I like it for Boston. I have 31.5 but my gut tells me less for Boston , maybe one big one & a few minor events, just an uneducated guess .

      1. Something also tells me ( gut ) south shore & cape have more snow then Boston , not by much but have a couple more events .

        1. That’s always possible, to some degree, in any given winter. It comes down to particular events if you’re talking a distance like Boston to Cape Cod. But it is rare for Cape Cod to equal or beat Boston. South Shore is more apt to than Cape Cod due to the fact they’re not surrounded by water. If I were to bet, one of the bets would not be that Cape Cod will beat Boston in any year.

          1. Based on the snowfall page, no one so far is having Boston beat Worcester in consecutive seasons. Not even close.

            I’ll forgo the contest this time and just keep track of the “rivalry” though. 😉

            1. Well given that it happened last year, even by that slim margin, and how often it has been observed happening, I would not bet on it happening again anytime soon.

              Doesn’t mean it can’t, but I wouldn’t risk the money. 😉

              1. I do find it amazing that Worcester couldn’t pull off one last early spring snow. All they needed was one lousy half inch. If I recall we were in the right pattern for it, correct? 😉

                1. It could have happened, but being in the “right pattern” is still not a guarantee. It only ups the odds.

                  It’s like in sports: There’s a reason why they actually PLAY the games. 🙂 I mean, how many people handed the NY Yankees the series over the Red Sox after the 19-8 loss to go down 0-3? 😉

          2. Cape cod has beaten Boston before I believe is that correct & I do agree regarding SS vs CC. But that’s just guessing, I mean what the hell do I know right lol . Tk hope you guys are feeling better , my neighbor is just getting over it & she had it pretty good .

            1. Maybe CC has beaten Boston at one time or another given 100+ years of record keeping but for that to happen (imo) storms would have to pass well outside the benchmark but close enough for CC to get the “heaviest” snow leaving the I-95 corridor (Boston) westward out of reach of any meaningful snows. Most of our snow events CC gets at least some mixing if nothing else as not many storm tracks are super favorable for massive amounts throughout an entire winter.

              Even during the Blizzard of ‘78 much of CC came up “empty” relatively speaking compared with the rest of SNE. They mixed if not changed over to rain completely at times if I recall.

              I’m certainly not TK but that’s my take on it. 🙂

    1. With yet another one lined up for 12/13. This is NOT looking good. Something had better change soon.

      Not to mention, ocean is sitting at 51.8, 3.74 degrees above average!!

      1. Both the natural trend and the pattern trend in the Atlantic are cooling trends. But I wouldn’t even bother trying to look at individual events on the models beyond 4 days. Something lined up for 12/13 could easily be replaced by high pressure on the run following. What’s more important to look at is the overall pattern configuration, not the individual positions of highs and lows run to run. That’ll just change every single time, like usual…………………..

        I am curious, however, to see where things go with GFS starting in just 2 days.

    1. It is from Vegas and appears to be the MGM Grand, which for a time was a home away from home for my wife and me. Can’t tell you how many times we stayed there and were in the arena. 🙂

    2. Grampa Billy Idol does live videos with his granddaughter on Instagram every Sunday. They’re cute. 🙂

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