Monday November 28 2022 Forecast (8:32AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

We’ll be riding a temperature rollercoaster but with an overall mild pattern as we move from November to December during the coming days. First, behind a departing low that brought us some Sunday rainfall comes a trough and cold front with lots of clouds and maybe a rain shower for a portion of today before we start to clear out. While it will be on the mild side today expect a gusty wind, which will continue into tonight, transporting slightly colder air into the region. Tuesday is a fair weather day but cooler albeit with much less wind. And then while it warms up, the wind will be back along with the wet weather chance as the next system quickly moves in from the west on Wednesday, a frontal boundary from a low pressure area moving quickly through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. This exits later Wednesday night and December opens with 2 cooler days, a windy one on Thursday behind the departing low, and a more tranquil one on Friday as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower possible this morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers increasingly likely. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible especially during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Breaking clouds / clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning then falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

High pressure brings fair weather December 3. The primary storm track, with a ridge of high pressure in the Southeast US, is likely to be Great Lakes to southeastern Canada. Two such systems are being watched for this period, one passing by with rain showers for our area on December 4 and another near the end of the period. Some guidance has had that end-of-period system as a little further south with a little more marginal temperatures here, but I’m staying with the milder scenario for now.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

I can’t say this with high confidence yet but a little bit of a shift toward colder may be underway during this period, but not without some battle between that and the mild air supplied by the Southeast US ridge. A little early to work out any details of unsettled weather – precipitation types – but take note that the pattern may be on the active side as we approach mid December.

44 thoughts on “Monday November 28 2022 Forecast (8:32AM)”

  2. Definitely not “sunny” in my neck of the woods this morning as we have heavy clouds traversing the sky and I observe some rain shafts from showers just to my north and northwest.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Still a bit early for truly Winter weather. In my experience,
    many Winter seasons had a switch thrown somewhere between
    12/5 and 12/15 where it went from Fall weather to Winter weather. Will the switch be thrown this year or not?

    I remember one year where the switch didn’t go off until 1/1. 🙂

    6Z GFS says through 12/14, NOPE! I Will be watching.

    1. Right now the biggest key to the pattern is the ridge in the southeastern US.

      Once again over the last couple days I’ve been bombarded with messages and questions about big cold and big snow based on posts made by non-mets on social media. I’ve been putting those fires out as they reach my inbox. “Let’s find the one run that shows what we want to happen and hype it to death!” Yup, that’s meteorology……………………..

      1. Right now that ridge appears to want to stay strong.
        AS the cold builds in Canada, perhaps we can push that
        ridge off?????

        1. It’s not as strong as some of our previous La Nina ridges. But it’s enough to delay the colder pattern from the East Coast longer than the rest of the country. Can’t say it’s unusual. La Nina has often done this to us since we knew what La Nina was. 😉

      2. Actually, it was 6 days, but who’s counting? 😛

        Basically the idea was that we may end up cloudier and wetter, but ultimately I forecast it as lingering showers in the morning. The reality is it turned out a little less than that with lots of clouds and passing very light showers but not covering the entire region, only a portion of it. But the forecast was based against the idea that we’d have completely cleared out and instead would have to wait for another area of energy to come by – and that part was correct. This was the “anticipated model error” method that I have brought up many times. Trying to forecast against models based on where you are pretty sure they’re gonna screw it up, but then coming up with the solution they would have had if they were correct…

          1. Well to be fair to them, I have a blog with unlimited wording and they just have a box to put an icon in – that’s all people remember anyway. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK.

    Hopefully the dreaded ridge breaks down in time for Christmas. I would like to see a good dump of snow on the ground around that time for a change. Christmas time landscape here in Boston seems more like Atlanta most years. 😉

    1. I think Boston and SE New England have a low % for having snow on the ground on Christmas. 25% or a bit less ????

    2. It’s not that unsual, Philip, as Boston’s chance of a white Christmas based on climatology is slightly less than 1 in 4.

      Most winters, most of Boston’s snow comes in January and February. Nothing new there. As I say on a routine basis, if you want a white Christmas, go west and north. Your chances increase rapidly. It’s a direct function of where we live, longitude, latitude, and proximity to ocean. Always been that way.

      I’ve always found it interesting that a lot of people say “it doesn’t feel like Christmas without snow on the ground”. I don’t agree with that. Growing up, we had more bare ground Christmases around here than white ones. Christmas feels like Christmas to me no matter what is on the ground or what the weather is. It always has and always will. I’ve never limited myself to needing some definition of perfection based on album covers, movies, or stereotypes. It’s not about that. It adds nice atmosphere, yes, but that’s really about it. 🙂

      Same logic applies to the time change. For example, if that bill goes through and we decide to for some bizarre reason adopt permanent DST, we’ll still have the same amount of daylight on December 21. We only change the time of sunrise and sunset by 1 hour in the same direction. Pick your poison. The other option is to move to Yuma Arizona, the sunniest place on earth with an average of 4015 hours of sunshine per year. 😉

      1. Hope it doesn’t pass and we go back to Standard Time as the medical community has suggested. DST is not good for our health, at least according to them.

        1. Permanent DST would be far worse for us than permanent standard time. They are trying to do this the wrong way.

    1. The sky was expected to be changeable at this point in the day. The energy / front is through for the most part. Now the clouds that are around are a mixture of diurnal, cold advection, orographic, and some mid level energy above that (that will be seen above the lower stuff).

      1. Whatever…as long as there is more sunshine than clouds, at least until 4:14 pm. OUCH!!! Unfortunately, morning darkness is making a comeback once again. I no longer have morning light heading out the door.

        Amazing how on this planet, winters are dark much of the time no matter the location. 🙁

        1. Well, that’s kind of what causes winter, for both the northern and southern hemispheres. 😉 And it’s a good thing too, or we’d probably have had a heck of a lot more trouble surviving. We literally live on a rock in a perfect place and moving in a perfect way to sustain us. The odds were beyond astronomically against us.

          At least the darkness (and light) are accurately foretold and we can prepare for them. 🙂

  11. Don’t want to sound like Charlie from Attleboro, but it felt like spring today. Seriously. Did my long run early today and it had a spring feel (including the humidity), not a late fall feel. It certainly looks like late fall, but look and feel are different verbs.

    1. When I went out for my mid-morning coffee, I didn’t need gloves in spite of the brisk wind, and it was still cloudy at the time.

      Even yesterday on my way home from work, it started raining with that strong scent of “spring”. Interesting that chilly rains have no scent at all but mild ones do.

  12. Tweet from Meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    Another day of model data, another day of growing support for the winter forecast. Those that went with a warm La Nina winter forecast might be having second thoughts

  13. Another Tweet from Meteorologist John Homenuk

    – A retrograding -NAO block is likely to develop next week, one of the most impressive December blocks in a decade
    – Cold will gradually enter the US from 12/7 – 12/10
    – Winter weather threats could follow in the Eastern US by mid month

    1. Well, one assumes the guidance producing this is correct, but at least he’s using the term “gradually”, because that’s going to be the case. No big switch-flip this time.

  14. The GFS runs are SO inconsistent right now. Tossing model for a couple days. It’s become a completely piece of, as JP Dave would say, #!$$%@!

    Between the current version tanking, and new version already tanked, the status of the GFS is not good at all heading toward winter.

  15. Thanks TK.

    Right or wrong, you can really the Greenland Block starting to take shape on the 12z and 18z GFS after December 8.

    That is one hell of a retrograding storm in the Atlantic at the end of the 18z run 🙂

  16. Thanks TK.

    Cool article with some really interesting visualizations regarding new research on the Tonga eruption, which new analysis is revealing was larger than previous thought and almost twice the strength of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption.

    Worth noting that global temperatures have been quite cool recently – November 2022 will probably barely exceed the 30 year average, quite rare in our rapidly warming climate. The upcoming extreme -NAO event is rather interesting as well, certainly begs the question as to whether “something” is tipping towards making such an event more likely…

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-21/sea-floor-map-reveals-huge-cavity-left-behind-by-tonga-volcano/101674708?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

    1. Thank you WxWatcher. I had been thinking about this event, obviously as noted in my winter discussion as being the largest wildcard in the outlook. This information is excellent.

  17. TK – With regard to the GFS, will you just look at it with amusement and totally disregard and just go with the Euro and other models from now on for your forecasts?

    1. No, I will do what any good scientist does and look at the information available and make a case-by-case assessment.

      Nothing is ever that clear-cut.

      I’m disappointed that the scores for the new GFS are lower than its previous version, but this is a process. I don’t think they’re going to just “let it sit” for very long. I’ll just be cautious in my approach when looking at the GFS, but I already am with any model anyway, so that’s not really going to be anything new.

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