Wednesday November 30 2022 Forecast (9:32AM)

78 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

We’re in for a bit of a rough ride for this final day of November 2022. We don’t start out that way, with just a cloudy, chilly, raw start to the day. But as the day goes along an increasing southerly air flow ahead of an approaching front, parented by strong low pressure tracking from the Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley, will transport warmer air into our area, along with increasing wind and eventually plenty of rain shower activity. This gets underway during midday and afternoon from west to east, peaks early this evening, and winds down in the late evening hours from west to east. During peak time, wind gusts can be strong enough to result in some tree damage and power outages. The unseasonably mild air that is brought in ahead of the front will be replaced by a shot of cold air, with wind, as dry weather comes back for the opening day of December. Winds relax by Friday as high pressure moves in, with fair weather. Quickly-moving, the next system, taking a similar track will bring another round of cloudiness, mild air, and rain showers Saturday – timing to be nailed down, followed by a return to dry, breezy, cool weather Sunday. That system looks somewhat less potent than its predecessor.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers arrive west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind S increasing to 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Cloudy in the evening widespread rain showers and possible thunderstorms, followed by breaking clouds and clearing overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-55 MPH evening, strongest South Coast to South Shore, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief snow flurry may reach the Monadnocks of southwestern NH or the Worcester Hills of MA. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers early, followed by clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Next unsettled weather threat is around December 6-7 based on current expected timing. Odds still favor a low track northwest of this region, but not highly confident of this yet. Temperatures still mostly above normal but may have a shot of colder air before the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Continuing to watch for a shift in the pattern but evolution may be fairly slow, putting us in the battle zone with additional unsettled weather threats, and variable temperatures. Will be a lot to work out and fine-tune regarding the forecast for this period of time.

78 thoughts on “Wednesday November 30 2022 Forecast (9:32AM)”

  2. Thanks, TK!

    Hope everyone in your house is better!

    We’re hanging in there.

    So close to Winter Break, yet, so far! 🙂

    Mid-term grades, if you can believe it, are due next Thursday already!

    1. Tk & SAk how long should the wind be an issue in pembroke for & will it be strong as advertised, thinking I might take more down later if I’m feeling better .

        1. Second booster at the hospital yesterday Vicki & just like the first booster I got sick with massive headache, body aches & fatigued. I’ve been in bed most of the day up at 11am & back in bed at 2pm & just got up . Got moderna with the first 3 so Doctor said switch it up this time & same thing , I’m probably done with boosters as there the only shot that put me down .

          1. Oh no. I feel your pain. I really do. Same reaction for me for all. Moderna also. I’m told it is a good sign. I plan on a couple of days binge watching with chicken noodle soup. Feel better

      2. Round 1 of wind basically is now to late evening. A little lull takes place around the time the rain ends, but not long after that the wind from the west picks up again and blows very gusty through a good part of tomorrow. So you won’t have all that much time between now and strong wind, and the only “lull” if you will comes late tonight, briefly.

    2. Ha ha ha
      I just now took a look at it. 🙂

      All I was going to say is that it finally at least looks interesting.
      I know all of those events are out there in time and subject to change. BUT at least I see some signs of things changing. that is all.

      1. We definitely have solid signs of a pattern change. And you know that the key is in the trends and not the model-to-model details. I do enjoy looking at the various solutions they come up with, even if I know “fiction” is a large element in play.

  9. It is 52 and it is the first day I have had to turn the heat on. It is warmer but raw

    I turned off outside lights for tonight. Not worth chancing that the rain get into the one outlet that gives us trouble and blows all the strands.

    1. One of our “newer” outdoor outlets has blown from rain 3 times now. The electrician hates them, but the “boss” insists these are the ones they have to be installing.

      They don’t work, but let’s use them! Yup, that makes sense. 😉

      1. Agree. I know it’s best to blow but it’s frustrating

        Problem also is our verizon outlet is on the inside of that outlet. I have half the front on an extension into the garage hooked to a wifi plug that works on a schedule or I can just turn on and off with my devices. I just ordered an outdoor three outlet extension plug that works the same. That way I’m not running in and out all times of day and night.

        1. Oh get this one…
          We had one of our newer sockets blow on is, due to ants passing through it… HAHAHA!

          There’s one section in the back corner of the garage that we have occasionally observed as an area for ants to pass through between the ground and an old wood stove chimney. The area has been treated for them in the past but this particular season they made a comeback, and one of them made the “decision” to pass through the socket, and when the others followed the chemical trail…zap!

          Since then, the ants have been controlled / eliminated again and the socket replaced.

    1. Based on a few of these runs I’m going to venture a guess that the attempted “fix” of astronomical snow amounts showing up on this model was a miserable fail. I’ve only seen one example so far where it forecast far less than the older version, but it was wrong anyway because it was still off by 6 to 10 inches. The total was zero.

  11. Christine McVie, of Fleetwood Mac, has passed away at age 79.
    She will be missed. What a great musician and, according to Mick Fleetwood, a wonderful friend. She always gave off that vibe in performances and interviews. It was never about her, but the music. RIP Christine.

    2. My wife just heard and told me.
      We saw her with Fleetwood Mac at the old Schaffer Stadium (Now Gillette) back in 1976. So sad!!

  12. Devastated by the news of McVie’s death at the comparatively young age of 79.

    Written by Stevie Nicks in 1975, Rhiannon is one of Fleetwood Mac’s best-known songs, as you all know. This live version from 1997 is really awesome; made great in part because of Christine McVie’s piano intro. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzOsQAMtpm0

  13. Thanks TK.

    Nice to see all the deterministic models (GGEM and Euro in addition to the GFS) starting to react to the impending pattern change and Greenland block after December 8. Gassing up the snowblower now to prepare for the 30″ of snow the GFS is delivering to me by -mid month 🙂

  16. Just posted this on the contest page….

    Wanted to get my snow guess in before the deadline so here goes:

    Boston: 68.4″
    Worcester: 88.3″
    Providence: 54.2″
    Hartford: 68.4″

    I am going bigger this year. My gut says this is not going to be a just another repeat of the last two La Nina winters. We have some extensive early season North American snow cover, indications that La Nina is going to be weakening and less of a factor as we move on, and a potential good start to the winter with a strong -AO and -NAO setting up for at least the second half of December. While I highly doubt we will be seeing a consistent cold/snowy pattern for most of the winter, I think the adjacent warm Atlantic waters will fuel a few big east coast storms this season and as we all know, it only takes a few of those to jack up your seasonal snow totals.

    This was the basis for my snow guess last year (54.1″) which worked out well as Boston got one big late January storm that jacked the season total to above normal in what was an overall benign winter pattern. I think that happens again this season only we get into a more favorable winter pattern or two for longer. Will be fun to see how this one plays out!

  17. Sitting in Hanover while daughter has quick hr of dance.

    Heavy waves of rain mixed with lighter spells of rain. Breezy and mild/muggy !!

  18. 18z GFS offers important perspective ……

    Blocking doesn’t guarantee a northeast storm of snow or rain.

    How many times does blocking of varying strengths/locations clobber the mid Atlantic ??

    Keep expectations low until we get closer or risk winter weather frustration/letdown !!!!!

    1. Yes, important point! The winter of 2009-2010 comes to mind where the block was so strong that DC and Baltimore got clobbered with a couple 20-30″ storms and we were grazed or missed all together.

      That said the following winter of 2010-2011 everything lined into place for us to cash in.

      It will be interesting to see how this all plays out!

  19. Something sneaky shorter term around Dec 7, but, I kind of think the cold air might NEED that disturbance to pass by New England to help the cold get in here …… as opposed to getting in here ahead of it.

  21. Absolute torrents !!!!! Good thing rain moving along because the area is intensifying on radar and the rain rates are impressive.

  23. Wife and I just got our Moderna bivalent booster. That makes
    FIVE (5) shots in total. I hope it is worth it!

    2. Fought through the common cold over thanksgiving. Noticeable increase in absences in school and noticeable increase in faculty and some students with face masks upon returning to school not yet feeling 100%.

    4. I had Pfizer #5 a few weeks ago and was just a bit achy and slight case of the chills but other than that was ok.

        1. The first set of two yes but we have taken Tylenol with the others every six hours and it takes the edge off of the side effects.

          1. Very Interesting. Thank you. I don’t take before but after I did when I spiked a fever above 100. I don’t run temps higher than 100 so 102 earned Motrin. It didn’t seem to help. Darn

      1. Keep in mind that not everybody gets the maximum.

        If you look at my discussion, the southerly winds were to be strongest in the highest elevations. They were. The Quincy event was one of the squalls and just an unfortunate placement of fallen tree vs. power lines.

  25. Well, some of the areas that were given 20-30 inches of snow by the 12z GFS are given a grand total of ZERO inches by the 18z GFS.

    For the 1163rd time, I’m still not surprised. 😉

    Saw tons of posts of the 12z on FB & Twitter.
    Regarding posts on the 18z? *crickets*

    Again, not surprised about that either. 😉

  29. If only the Canadian model ran past 240 hours, I would love to see what happens in the next few frames on the 0z run….

    I think we are going to see some interesting solutions over the next few weeks as the models try to figure out how to handle this blocking.

Comments are closed.