Thursday December 1 2022 Forecast (8:15AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Hello December! The first month of Meteorological Winter and the final month of 2022. This is where we complete our transition from late autumn to early winter, and of course move through the heart of the holiday season. If it hasn’t snowed yet, people look forward to the first one with a variety of emotions ranging from dread to child-like anticipation. Whatever your persuasion, what I can tell you is that you’re not seeing it in the next 5 days. There will be changes in the weather during this period, but the pattern is not the “snowy” type, with a storm track that’s through the Great Lakes. Typical La Nina / Southeast Ridge pattern as a basis, but its days are numbered. We’ll get to that. In the mean time, it’s more of the same. Today, behind yesterday’s gusty and mild rain event, we get a shot of appropriately seasonably chilly weather to open the month, along with lots of wind, but it will be dry, save for the remote chance of a snow flurry reaching our northwesterly hilly terrain if surviving the trip all the way from the Great Lakes. The wind will settle down tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes, and high pressure building closer to the region Friday will give us a nice early December day. The next low pressure area will be wasting no time on its trek here, and again with its low tracking well to our northwest, we’ll be on its warmer side for Saturday. This system, while potent in its own right, is not going to be as strong as its predecessor, and while Saturday will be “unsettled” with a couple rounds of rain showers, it may not be that bad a day either, as we may end up seeing more of a sun/cloud interval set-up rather than a solid overcast. Behind that system, Sunday will be a dry, breezy, chilly day, similar to today but probably with not as much wind, and like Friday, Monday will see fair and more tranquil weather with high pressure moving into the region.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief snow flurry may reach the Monadnocks of southwestern NH or the Worcester Hills of MA. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple rounds of rain showers are probable. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Next unsettled weather threat is around December 6-7 based on current expected timing. Odds highly favor a low track to our northwest and precipitation in the form of rain showers. This will come at the beginning of a pattern transition toward blocking, driven by high pressure over Greenland. The trend is for mostly dry but somewhat colder weather for the middle and end of this period with maybe a snow shower event somewhere during the transition.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Fairly confident of the pattern shift now to a Greenland high pressure block, strong enough to suppress a lot of moisture to our south and put us in a pattern of below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation with just a few snow showers from time to time with upper disturbances. Obviously no ability for day-to-day details at this point.

56 thoughts on “Thursday December 1 2022 Forecast (8:15AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Interesting…we go from a storm track to our N&W to a storm track suppressed to our South. Can’t win around here.

    We are at that time of year when snow can happen at any time, although still a little early for a “big” one. Here’s hoping….but I know it will be some time yet, if ever.

    And that ocean is still pretty toasty, sitting at 51.08, 3.65 degrees above average. Hmmm a decent NE wind off of that water would turn any snow to RAIN anywhere near the coast.
    We would need a very cold high parked in the correct position
    to overcome that, and even then, that is pretty warm water.
    Oh well such is life some Winter seasons.

    We march forward the best we can.

    Pats game tonight. That should be interesting. I expect the Patriots to struggle in this game. I hope the defense can keep it close to give them a chance.

    1. I agree it is a little early, but we have had a number of significant storms on or around December 9. Not looking as if that will happen this year……yet 😉

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Must say I look forward to a somewhat drier pattern with less oscillation in temperatures. I like cold and dry in winter. Love snow, too, but I detest rain and 40s/50s in winter. So, I’ll take a pattern shift, even if it’s not a snow-producing one.

    1. I was thinking when I was writing my blog today that it may be a “Joshua-style” pattern.

      While, as you know, I never complain about weather and accept whatever nature throws this way, I do have a favorite December pattern: cold & dry – several minor snow events. If I had only one pattern to chose for a December, that would be it. Quick transitions, colder than average, clippers, a few days of really good cold wind, and a good handful of halcyon days, which I believe are your favorite of all. 🙂

      1. And Japan is struggling again

        Thanks Joshua. I will read soon. I’m hoping covid page stays as it is. Still some important info there.

        1. I’m keeping it there for now, updated once a week. It still shows in “recent posts” today. After 5 days it will go to “archives” but it always reachable. Comments shut down after 7 days at the time I post the new one. Just a reminder for all who use it. 🙂

  7. 12z GFS is out to hr 96 and while there’s not a huge difference in sensible weather vs its 00z GFS run to that point, there are noticeable differences in the northern jet at 500 mb between the 2 runs and thats only 4 days out.

      2. I guess the idea I’m getting at is ……

        If there are differences run to run only 4 days out, then paying attention to run to run differences 10-14 days out is an exercise in needless frustration (if the run is not desireable 🙂 )

    2. Listening to you analyze the runs always makes me wonder if you should have really gone in pursuit of meteorology, but then I think of all the kids who have greatly benefited from the career choice you did make. 🙂

      I posted my “Marshfield” collection from 11-4 yesterday. Ouch that game HAHA! At least we came back to win our consolation playoff game & Thanksgiving game. 🙂

      1. Thanks TK !

        It was good to say hello and talk at that game.

        Conversely, Marshfield got smoked by Duxbury on Thanksgiving.

  11. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2022120100&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2022120112&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    To my point above. GFS from 00z last night (1st link), 12z today (2nd link)

    While the sfc weather is not terribly different in the 2 scenarios, the location and direction of the northern Jet btwn the 2 runs has some noticeable changes in directional flow and latitude where the jet max is.

    And, I guess what I’m throwing out there is that these differences are for something that is merely 96 hrs away.

    So, if the model can’t find consistency at 96 hrs from now, why worry about inconsistencies that are 240-326 hrs away ??

    1. For sure, a most valid point that TK and SAK have repeatedly made. 🙂

      It is laughable watching these runs.

      I even get angry, but I know it is all crap beyond a few days.

      What concerns me about today’s run is a possible delay in the pattern change OR such a brief change reverting right back to the crap we have been in. 🙂

    2. Can clues…..not a good word choice….be seen about any sort of developments? I mean mixed with meteorological knowledge

  14. I agree with all who have prognosticated a Greenland Pressure Block. Beware of model forecasts in the transitional and early days of the block. They will want to move moisture fields too far north. Understand the true power of the block side!

    After our cycle of rain and wind events, dry and cold will become the likely feature.

      1. Nope. I told you before that it was still hanging on in some sections and there has not been adequate precipitation to put a full end to it. In fact, it may make a comeback heading into 2023.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Meterological Winter!
    Rob Carolan, on WSAR in Fall River, said, this morning, that we’re already in Solar Winter which I never knew existed.

    We’re within one minute of the earliest sunset of the year which is next Thursday.

    Quite a day in the World Cup: Defending champs Germany and one of the favorites, Belgium, are eliminated. Japan shocked Spain. And the Germany-Costa Rica match featured the first, all-women refereeing crew for a World Cup match!

    “The First of December was covered with snow, and so was the turnpike from Stockbridge to Boston.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sw-cWJ93zmU&ab_channel=JamesTaylor

    You’ve got to love an artist who can rhyme “Boston” with “frostin'”:-)

    It was 29º and no snow this morning in Stockbridge.

    Go Pats!

  18. According to Eric, Boston will see accumulating snow this December. We have to wait until after mid-month.

    Hang in there JPD! 🙂

  19. It’s difficult/painful to watch a mediocre football team play against a very talented team. Allen is freakishly good at times. Diggs is always good. He’s something special. Seems likes a decent guy, too. https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/1595918336726024192

    The Patriots are really mediocre in all three facets of the game: Offense (poor), defense (only good against bad teams), special teams (mostly abysmal). Since the coaching isn’t good anymore, either, the Patriots are really headed in the wrong direction.

    It’s good we have 2 excellent teams to root for: Bruins and Celtics. And, of course, the U.S. soccer team.

    1. As I watched the pocket continuously collapse on Mac, my son in law named a bunch of offensive players we could have had in the past 10-15 years. They were all available to us. As everyone knows, I rarely recall names. But he gave stats for the success each one has seen. Bill cannot draft. Brady repeatedly alluded to this and then left.

      As for Jones, I think we tend to forget rookies need time to Develop. Sadly, for him, the lack of support will make development very difficult.

      All that said, while I have little use for BB, the Patriots are my team. While fans of many other franchises were hanging their heads, the Pats With Brady and company gave us decades of amazing football.

  20. Seeing a lot of posts out there about this being the best set-up for snow in a long time in the Northeast…

    1) It hasn’t happened yet.
    2) The depiction of the pattern by guidance is not actually as favorable for snow in the Northeast as many folks think. There are several factors against it…
    -The uncertainty with the Southeast ridge, which shuts off the moisture supply from the south, or at least limits it significantly, unless it pushes far enough to the east.
    -A trough in the Southwest. When this feature is present. We often end up with systems that when they do get far enough north, they produce more mix/ice than snow.
    -Blocking too strong – storms pushed to the south. I’ve seen 2009-2010 mentioned a lot. That was great snow winter ….. for the Mid Atlantic. 😉
    3) It hasn’t happened yet. 😉

    Too many people see “blocking” and translate the meaning to “snow”. Not that simple. Not saying it won’t snow at all, but NOTHING is a lock yet, especially sitting here on December 1 for a pattern that is more than 1 week away from really changing. We’ve seen this too many times – and I’m not falling for it so easily. Yes, the pattern will change up, but the details are simply not that clearly spelled out – though odds do favor it being colder and drier over anything else for our area.

    1. It’s the best set up for snow in a long time for someone between Atlanta and Bangor :). It’s all going to depend on the strength and position of that block which as you say is impossible to determine at this point in time

  21. Another night and another entertaining 00z Canadian solution. The storm near the end of the run gets us twice, first from the west and then from the east as it hits the block and then makes a U turn.

    Last night had two storms from the east and west on course to collide over us.

    Cant wait to see what tomorrow night will bring. My money is on a storm that makes a full circle around us but never hits us 🙂

    1. There’s a good reason I seldom ever use anything on that model for anything other than entertainment. 😉

    2. Upgraded but with a lower performance score than its predecessor so they went with it anyway version.

      Or you can just refer to it more honestly as the downgraded version, because that’s what it is. 🙂

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