Saturday December 3 2022 Forecast (8:43AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Low pressure moving east northeastward across southeastern Canada will drag a frontal boundary through our region by this evening, with a round of rain showers ahead of it and another along it – so an unsettled Saturday. Fair weather returns with high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday before the next system from the west brings more unsettled weather in the form of rainfall as mild air dominates Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with an area of rain crossing the region from west to east, then variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds and one more passing rain shower early evening, then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 36-43. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

The pattern will transition into a blocking set-up, driven by high pressure in the Greenland region. We will be near additional unsettled weather systems as this transition takes place but it’s hard to tell which days will feature more clouds and unsettled weather at this point. Fine-tuning to come. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)

Greenland block drives the pattern. We will have to watch for any retrogression of the pattern too as time goes along. Initially we are cold and mostly dry but may have a close call from a system passing to the south early in the period and a better chance of some type of precipitation event later in the period. There are also trends on some recent guidance that the magnitude of the cold may not be quite that grand – more of a near to below normal style chill. Monitoring in progress – clarification to come ahead.

53 thoughts on “Saturday December 3 2022 Forecast (8:43AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    I hope any snow comes later rather than sooner so we can have an official White Christmas for a change. Too often it melts away before the holiday itself arrives.

    I want Christmas 2022 to be a member of the “25 percent” if you will. 🙂

    1. If it comes sooner that doesn’t necessarily mean that 1) It melts, and 2) It doesn’t snow again. 🙂

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Getting depressed watching run after run with cutter after cutter after cutter.
    Something better change, because it looks pathetic to me. Is the blocking even going to happen? blah blah blah

    wake me up when there is something interesting. Looks like December will be another November .

    I am waiting and not very patiently, at that.

      1. At nearly 2 weeks out I’d take that solution very lightly.

        That won’t look like that in a few runs. 🙂 Maybe even the next one! 😉

        1. Yes, I get that. I am simply frustrated by a continuous stream of freakin Cutters. Does the GFS NOT know any other solution????????????????????????????????????????????

          Sure, I get it. When that date comes, IF IF IF there is a storm system it could end up 1,000 miles to the East.

          But the point remains, this model continues to forecast cutters. WHY? How do we get a cutter during a blocking pattern? It simply CUTS WEST of the block? Wouldn’t it CUT underneath the block?

          We had one run a few days ago that offered some hope, but then it slipped back to the same ole shit. 🙂

          And the Euro isn’t much better either.

    2. A few days ago I mentioned the non-met -run sites that now populate social media far greater than any legit info source, and they have basically “educated” their viewers that “blocking” automatically means “snow”. That’s their first mistake.

      As you know, here I have tried to explain how the pattern shift works, what we know, what we don’t know, and that we can’t “lock things in” based on guidance that performs in such a way that it often leaves more questions than answers. But they ignore this repeatedly for the draw of getting the thrill of telling people what they want to hear. 🙂

      What you’re seeing on runs now is a trend – maybe right? Maybe not so much. We’ve seen this before. Continuing to monitor the pattern in the scientific way and my findings will appear on this blog.:)

      I have a colleague I discuss weather with often and we were talking about the things that exist in the N America pattern that are negative factors in the “full on winter” scenario these folks are telling you about. Not a single one that I saw mentioned the pattern upstream and downstream of the block not being ideal. Not one of them mentioned any of the negative factors because they know people wouldn’t want to hear that stuff. Just wish-cast and hype it up. But that hasn’t changed in over a decade on social media, so it’s definitely not going to change now. 😉

      The population is slowly being lead to believe that the actual scientists that follow this stuff are not needed. Oh well. 😉 I guess we’ll just keep it for a hobby then………….. HAHAHAHA

      1. I have learned from this blog that there can be “too much” blocking and systems are pushed too far south to bring snow, so you can be out of luck that way as well.

        That is correct, isn’t it?

        1. That is correct.
          It’s not always a clear-cut thing. There are exceptions to any “rule” in meteorology, but general rules of thumb apply often and are a good starting point. That’s why it’s important to listen to the professionals and updates. Things do change. We’re never going to pretend we know the answer that far in advance. It’s always a process…

      2. I had one of “those” people tell me once that I wasted money getting a degree in meteorology because I can learn everything I need to know about weather on the internet. That’s great, except the internet as we know it barely existed when I started at Lowell in 1990.

        BTW, in reply, I asked this person if they needed surgery, would they go to an actual doctor, or someone who read everything in WebMD. The silence was deafening.

        2. Perfect response. I doubt it did one bit of good but we can hope. I have a relative I adore who has jumped on the meteorologists can’t get anything right train. I tried to explain but once that is in someone’s head it sticks. Now I just move to another topic

      4. This is across the board. Science is being replaced by anything but. Look at Covid being dictated by politicians. Look at global warming being dictated by the same. And weather by non weather. It goes on and on.

        One common denominator (can there be more than one?) boils down to the fact people will listen to a scenario that fits what they want to hear.

        My approach …whether right or wrong…is to follow the science by vetting those I do follow, use what I hope is common sense, and block or ignore those who are anything but professionals. My youngest keeps reminding me that to do otherwise, is simply spinning my wheels. I don’t always succeed. But I was heartened when a few days ago you said many on twitter were spouting false info and I had not seen as much as one report deviating from the true Mets. I seem to have at least that under control.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    I have decided chicago has nothing on Sutton. The wind is fierce but then it seems to be a good part of the time. I’d be lying to say I don’t enjoy wind. I’d like to stop resetting our decorations but that is a yearly project so I’m used to it.

    Wordle is solved so back to quordle….I wore myself out with my comment above 🙂

    1. Boston is quite windy as well. Examples are Copley Square and the intersection of Tremont & Boylston Streets next to the Common.

      There are no shortages of locations within the city. I believe City Hall Plaza as well.

  7. Lots of towns are having their Christmas celebrations out this way…and very likely in other areas. Tough weather but my guess is they saw the weather and did the best they could.

  8. Extremely powerful wind gusts down this part of the south shore , I’m hoping we do not loose power , no rain yet .

    1. Much more promising 12z GFS run there. Several winter weather threats in that run and more of a storm track I would expect to see in a blocking pattern.

  12. Just a matter of time before I loose power for good , it’s gone out truce now & come right back on ,wind gust is ripping

  14. Thanks, TK.

    For those viewing the U.S. soccer game against the Netherlands, the U.S. lost. Not because of lack of effort. But, tactically they did not play smart soccer. This has been a problem for a long time with U.S. soccer.

    No doubt today the U.S. was up against an absolute legend in Louis Van Gaal; greatest coach (master tactician) of any sport ever in the history of professional sports, in my humble opinion. He has coached the Dutch national team to multiple successful runs in European and World Cup tournaments, AND he’s coached 5 (!) different teams (completely different rosters) in 4 different European countries to numerous championships. The guy hardly ever loses. https://twitter.com/brfootball/status/1599090070270578688

    1. Mac often compared US soccer to the Us equestrian team. We are hyper focused on what we consider our top few sports. Then comes the rest. That might not be a bad thing under competitions within the US. It makes worldwide competition difficult.

      That said….soccer has been receiving more attention than it did.

      1. We don’t lack athleticism or drive. I think our biggest deficiency is tactics.

        Just read that one of the greatest to ever play the game is dying: Pele. He is in end-of-life care. He suffers from metastatic colon cancer.

        Here’s a compilation of Pele’s brilliance from the 1970 World Cup. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k85liXbZiao

        1. That is so very sad

          I agree we have the athletes and drive. We have been lacking in government and maybe national support. As has the US equestrian team

          1. Thanks, TK!

            I thought the Netherlands played a much crisper game than the US. I think Oranje threw the Americans off their game plan with a quick goal (Memphis) in the first 10 minutes.

            I am not sure what the US defense was thinking (they weren’t thinking) when they left Dumfries completely unmarked in the box for the third Netherlands’ goal.

            The United States have come a long way in the past four years since they did not qualify for the finals in 2018. We “tri-host” the tournament in 2026 and don’t have to qualify to play. I am looking forward to see what the USA can do in four years,

            Aregntina looked in top form, especially Messi, in the second game. I am hoping Leo can claim a World Cup title before he retires.

            Taunton did not postpone its annual Lighting of the Green, but moved all entertainment indoors. The Christmas parade is tomorrow.

            1. Sutton had its chain of lights. It is a day long affair ending with a tree lighting on the common. Uxbridge has its parade. The rain stopped just as the parade began. I did see glimpses of the moon right about that time.

    1. I’m shocked I did not loose power today for a length of time , I just reset alarm clock again for the second time today , can’t be late for work in the morning right lol

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