Sunday December 4 2022 Forecast (8:47AM)

19 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

High pressure brings fair weather today but there will be a gusty breeze as the high center is off to the south a little and low pressure sits over eastern Canada. The high moves off to the east Monday, another fair weather day with a bit milder air. The next low pressure area, tracking north of our region toward midweek, drags a frontal boundary toward us later Tuesday and Wednesday, but it takes its time, and we get a mild southerly air flow along with unsettled weather as a result. Right now, cautious optimism leads to a forecast of drier and slightly cooler weather on Thursday as the front pushes through and Canadian high pressure noses into the region.

TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain developing in the afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Blocking pattern is expected, driven by high pressure in the Greenland area. At the same time there will be some persistence of a ridge in the southeastern US. This pattern likely means a stretch of unsettled weather as we’re caught between as disturbances try to pass through the weakness between highs. For this period, it looks like any precipitation will more likely be in the form of liquid than frozen as it may be hard to establish cold in the region, but this is not a certainty as this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Greenland block drives the pattern. A lot of uncertainty here with indications, based on the position of the block, that we can see storms pushed to our south ranging all the way to ones that try cutting through the Great Lakes. I think the take-away for the moment is unsettled but not overly so, and variable temperatures, with a lot to work out in the days ahead.

19 thoughts on “Sunday December 4 2022 Forecast (8:47AM)”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Still don’t understand how we get cutters in a blocking pattern? Do they try to pass west of the block?

  8. Thanks TK.

    With cold air hard to really establish itself once the pattern changes soon, I bet even any “benchmark” events will still be in the liquid form. The takeaway is that our rains will be chilly as opposed to our current mild/warm.

    As long as we get our White Christmas. It may very well take that long for cold enough air to get firmly established around here to produce mostly snow events. Let’s see what happens. 🙂

  9. Peaking at the 12z GFS …..

    We’re essentially sitting blind after 48-72 hrs

    The changes run to run are unacceptable or should be. It’s awful !!

    1. It is really disappointing how our modeling seems to be taking baby steps….backward.

      Nobody is looking for perfection. We’ll never have that. But it would be nice to see upgrades actually be upgrades instead of the opposite…

      Really hoping they can work out whatever is preventing that.

      It has not been exclusive to the GFS either. The ECMWF suffered a setback with one of its upgrades as well but I believe that may have been fixed since.

    1. a new england snow storm a few days after I return mass YES please haha. Going from 80s and the beach to snow, just as long as I do not have a storm that delays me from getting home.

  12. Thanks, TK.

    Still see bugs flying around outside. While not unprecedented that is unusual. Also some cherry blossoms have appeared on the Esplanade. This is an extended relatively mild stretch of weather that doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon, in spite of the blocking pattern.

    1. Even with what was a closer to the old days autumn, we still see the shift. I think it was Belmont that just recently did its last leaf pickup. Eric mentioned the cherry blossoms. And he mentioned while the last hold out elm trees have last their leaves, some maples are still holding on.

    3. A blocking pattern does not automatically mean below normal temperatures for New England. There’s a ton of cold air available. Not deep arctic air really, but plenty of cold. The problem: The block will be there but so will some form of a Southeast ridge, which will result in the cold being less directed into the Northeast. That’s all we’re really looking at.

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