Monday December 5 2022 Forecast (7:17AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)

An area of high pressure slides offshore to our east today but we’ll have a nice early December day, and then things shift in an unsettled direction. This takes place as a frontal boundary heads our way from the west, but fairly slowly. Its parent low pressure area, passing to our north later Tuesday through Wednesday, will be slowing down in response to a developing blocking pattern in the atmosphere, driven by high pressure in the Greenland area. By Thursday and Friday, the frontal boundary will have pushed offshore and Canadian high pressure will poke in enough to dry us out, along with cooler, but not-too-cold weather. Some guidance brings wet weather right back in as early as Friday, but I’m leaning away from this idea right now in favor of high pressure holding it off to our south and west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)

What we do know: The weather will be driven by a blocking pattern. What’s more uncertain: How the pieces in the atmosphere work together to give us our day-to-day weather. For now, I lean toward high pressure to the north of us being just strong enough to largely hold off a couple lows to our south at first, then giving way to the low pressure at some point later in the period. A low confidence outlook here is for mostly dry weather for the weekend of December 10-11 but maybe with lots of clouds around at times, then a cloudier and potentially wetter (maybe some frozen precipitation too) weather early next week. Obviously lots of fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-20)

Expecting the Greenland block to drive the overall pattern, but what is not certain is exact position of features and strength of the block, so the range of possibilities with our weather is rather wide. Also the ability to drive pure cold air right into our region may be somewhat limited by the set-up, so temperatures may hang closer to normal rather than falling below normal. For now leaning toward a drier pattern overall but having to watch storminess making runs at the region.

59 thoughts on “Monday December 5 2022 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yesterday’s GFS snowstorm is long gone now with both
    the 0z and 6Z runs. What a surprise there. 🙂

    1. Not to mention that the 8-14 day outlook is for milder than normal temperatures through the 18th, exactly one week before Christmas. To me this means that opportunities for a White Christmas are already dwindling just on that analysis alone. Hope for a miracle as usual around here. 😉

      1. I am not liking what I am seeing so far, but there is still plenty of time for things to change.

        Euro and CMC now look a little more interesting than the GFS.

        We shall see what the 12Z runs bring.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    I recall a dreary and relatively mild December 2014. Grayer than it’s been here recently, with little if any frost the first couple of weeks. The lack of snow carried right through most of the month and into January. Well, we know what happened after that.

    Obviously, I’m not saying that we’ll have a 2015 repeat, because we won’t. But, it’s still quite early.

  9. Dutch KNMI (meteorological institute) projecting relatively cold and stable weather pattern across parts of Northwestern Europe during the next 2 weeks, with quite a number of days with an easterly wind (some Scandinavian high pressure blocking occurring). By the end of this week parts of the Netherlands will see temperatures below freezing during the day. There will be some canal skating by next Monday, I think.

  11. Darn it, I forgot to comment yesterday which was the first relevant day. But paying closer attention to the 14+ day outlook starting today. You would make E happy with some snow in there, along with Jpdave, just saying…

  13. Reminder: You don’t need below normal temperatures over a 7 day period to have snow occur. 🙂

  17. Thanks TK.

    Thought I’d share another Bastardi tweet for entertainment purposes… 🙂

    Joe Bastardi
    @BigJoeBastardi
    6h

    Euro control goes full bore snowmaggeddon in the pattern mid and late month. I remain bullish on the long-standing December to Remember idea based on late impact hurricane season VV ideas in over tropical western Hemisphere Pattern likely to last into and thru holidays IMO

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1599709772126703616?s=20&t=C5LVpVFHdZ3W6Zi0cYoJ1Q

    2. I’ll give him half credit. Maybe “late” month like New Years Eve? And that is probably a stretch.

  22. Ok …..

    Perhaps a LITTLE confidence in the big picture emerging through say hr 120.

    3 GFS runs in a row that show a late, work week system initially headed to our west, through the eastern Great Lakes, but being affected by the developing block. The low is directed east southeastward perhaps underneath us.

    Smaller scale features still quite uncertain. Such as location of precip field, amount and depth of cold air to our north and how much and in what layers it seeps southward, etc ……….

    1. 12z Euro on its way to showing same big picture scenario in 96 – 120 hr time frame.

      Thus ….

      Confidence high for big and small scale features out to 48 hrs

      Confidence mod/high for big scale 48 – 120 hrs out but low on small scale features

      After 120 hrs, no confidence on any features, big or small scale.

  23. The GFS is complete and utter garbage right now. The operational run varies wildly from run-to-run, and has little to no support at all from it’s ensemble. Avoid it. Period.

    FWIW, the Euro has a pretty decent snow to to mix to rain storm at the end of the period (12/14 or so). There have been signals of a decent storm around that time frame for a while now.

    2. Any chance the blocking could force a coastal in the correct position for prolonged snow if not all snow in most areas?

      Thank you.

      1. Yes, that is absolutely on the table. Everything from lakes cutter to ots is on the table, and your scenario lies between those.

        Run to run will be useless. The GFS will be nearly completely useless until they discover they really broke it and fix it. I’ll pass along any news on that as I get it.

  27. Just a quick little commentary on the weather…

    GFS: Yes, it’s frustrating that the upgrade was a downgrade. It takes away reliability of one of our major tools. Hopefully this is addressed asap and any update will be passed along when known.

    ECMWF: Not that bad. Typical issues we look for anyway, but at least we know those.

    Pattern: I honestly can’t really add much more to what I’ve said in the discussion. We leave the current pattern and enter one that leaves more question that answers, but that doesn’t mean the answer won’t come. They will. It’s a patience game. Normal scientific methods for such a situation will be utilized.

    But as I mentioned, the pattern does increase the snow chance with time. Can’t know details, can’t give guarantees. Will monitor and elaborate when it warrants, as always. 🙂

    But with Christmas 20 days away and our guidance sketchy at best beyond day 4, we’re looking at fuzzy clues as to what goes on even next week, let alone the week after, with regard to getting a good old fashion white Christmas, or even just a little snow on the ground. Does the pattern look great from what we can tell? Certainly not. But there’s enough unknown that the chances are far from done. 🙂 At 20 days out, read climatology still. 20-25% chance for Boston. 🙂

    Remember just last week a lot of thoughts were for much colder just a few days from now – and we know how that’s panning out. 🙂

    Ok, back to the covid-delayed decoration project at mom’s. 🙂

  28. As TK noted the sunsets have been spectacular. Really all year we’ve had many incredible sunsets.

    Regardless of the weather, I have my festivals of lights going: Christmas tree, Minorah (well, 13 days from now the first candle will be lit), and lights throughout the apartment and a few outside the building, too.

    1. Love it. We finished outside last weekend. I’m just about finished with inside. I started after Halloween. It amazes me that I was once young enough to do it all in one day…a long one to be sure but still one

      Can you share photos? I’d love to see yours and everyone’s.

      I hope your son continues to improve

  30. From Meteorologist Steve DiMartino

    My suggestion, and I’m sure many meteorologist will agree, take the GFS, throw it in a trash can, light it on fire. Repeat until they fix their “upgrade”

    2. I’m glad all us mets are on the same page. Sometimes we actually know what we’re talking about. 😉

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