Tuesday December 6 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

A developing blocking pattern will slow weather systems down, and this will be evident as we enter a 2-day stretch of unsettled weather from a system, that in a progressive pattern, could pass through in a matter of hours. First a warm front approaches today, clouds take over, but rain holds back until sometime this evening across most areas, then we get into frequently wet weather through a good portion of Wednesday as first a warm front passes, then a cold front approaches.. As low pressure drifts north of our region, the cold front will finally move through Wednesday night and into the early hours of Thursday. For Thursday’s daytime through Friday, high pressure from Canada will nose into our region with dry weather. While this is going on, the next low pressure area will be heading in this direction via the Midwest, but it’s also going to be a slow mover, and may be pushed far enough south so that we only see its cloudiness for the start of the weekend, but its precipitation stays out of our region. Not a high confidence portion of the forecast still, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on it.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Expecting blocking to continue but still not totally clear on how it impacts our weather directly. Current feeling is low pressure is held to the south for the most part, but occasional clouds and a touch of unsettled weather on the northern edge of an initial system may get in here early in the period and a better chance of getting a larger impact system in comes later in the period – but don’t take this as a guarantee of anything specific. There remains a lot of questions about the pattern and what it results in here. One extremely broken main piece of computer guidance (recent GFS model “upgrade”) is not going to help figure anything out either.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Continued expectation that at least some form of a blocking pattern will continue and the trend is seasonably cool with a slightly increased for an episode of wintry weather in here somewhere, otherwise a mainly dry pattern. Much fine-tuning to come (you’ll hear this for a while, yet).

59 thoughts on “Tuesday December 6 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    Beautiful purple/pink sunrise this morning!

    TK – The tv mets have also been advertising a developing ocean storm to our east over the weekend yet you didn’t mention in your discussion above. Any particular reason?

    1. Actually I do but it’s mentioned in a more meteorologically sound way.

      I mentioned the block as the large-scale pattern. The development of that system will be part of that blocking setup which is being driven by high pressure to the north. I refer to energy passing south of us which is what is going to be the main system later. I talk about it in a more concrete way in the 5-day portion of the discussion especially since we can’t really know a lot of detail beyond that anyway. That will be part of what is brought into focus later.

      The problem with mentioning too many details too far in advance you usually have to backtrack and correct them. For example out there in some media not necessarily professional We were hearing talk of pretty much a locked in cold snowy pattern coming up before it was scientifically certain. Instead of committing to that I chose a better way to go about it and now do not have to go back and erase everything that I said because I never said it. There’s a reason I do things the way I do them. 🙂

  6. I’m hoping the storms stay to the south this winter or lake cutters . I’m still recovering from a very severe ankle fracture twenty one months ago on black ice. I have twelve screws and a eight inch plate in my ankle. I’m very paranoid about falling again on ice and snow again. I’m sixty seven I’m still limping and have lost fifty percent of the range of motion in my right ankle.

    3. Praying you heal quickly. Mac’s spine was mostly replaced by a rod and screws. I well remember the worry during February 2015 and how I felt when there were thoughts of more snow. I know most here will always hope for snow, including me, but I sure understand your comment. Maybe we can limit it to two storms that melt quickly. I wish you well!

    1. I get the impression that Pete doesn’t particularly like 10 day forecasts.

      Back in the day, tv mets never went beyond 4 days.

      1. He doesn’t. He and I chatted about them and the fact management insists they not only post them but insist they post first back when he was on 7

      2. While we enjoy looking that far into the future and talking about it with colleagues, the general feeling I have always gotten from the media folks is they do not enjoy having to put that information out there day after day to a public who takes it far too seriously. 5-day, 7-day, 10-day. Anything beyond day 4… you know the story, and so do they. But the bosses say “do it”, so in order to keep their job, they gotta do it.

        Harvey was one of the first to say something about not enjoying the mandate of having to put single high & low temp #’s on 5+ day forecast for a viewing area, for example.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Robert, I’m sorry to hear about your ankle. If it’s any consolation I think your neck of the woods will have an especially mild winter. I believe you’re south of Providence. I don’t think you get more than 20 inches of snow in total, and it will melt quickly as I do not think we’ll get much sustained cold this season. Black ice, however, is always a possibility and a scary one, too.

    2. Yes, and this is a day 5 threat so not too far out into the future! Of course, no support from the Euro or Good for Shit model but it is something watch. The pattern could support something like this moving forward….

  11. Thanks TK.

    A few more tweets this afternoon about our impending (potential) winter pattern…

    Mark Margavage
    @MeteoMark

    That is one heck of a cold and snow signal for the Eastern US from an ensemble run at this range. Wow 0z EPS! I love it. Usually these maps are smoothed out by variance at that range, but there is some rock solid confidence in a long term -NAO. #wxtwitter

    https://twitter.com/MeteoMark/status/1599854269271707650?s=20&t=HorSkrwbxMANsnJ2B04BzQ

  13. Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    15h

    It’s-baaack! While everyone is obsessed with it’s cousin Greenland blocking & what it may or may not do, I remain focused on Ural blocking, that has now been resurrected by the models, & its impact on the #PolarVortex. Blog available for early view: https://atmospheric-and-environmental-research-aer.myshopify.com/collections/frontpage/products/arctic-oscillation-and-polar-vortex-analysis-and-forecasts-early-look

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1599955854941245440?s=20&t=WAIG-zXp0Nw4N5BmDMQeVQ

  14. This tweet is focused more on the DC area but still a good illustration of what happens with Greenland blocking…

    Mike Thomas
    @MikeTFox5

    Talked a lot about the North Atlantic Block (-NAO) over the last two weeks. For those not sure why it is important, here is a small little explainer on what it means for the DC region usually. It’s not the only thing needed for snow, but you can see why it is an important one.

    https://twitter.com/MikeTFox5/status/1599958997163020288?s=20&t=Tu8i9f0fQyoEHKV_iOl_pg

    1. I’m much more encouraged that the EPS is onboard for the second half of the month. The GFS long range is completely useless right now.

  19. I’m very pleased to see a lot of my colleagues talking about the pattern evolution and supporting the fact that none of this was just going to happen overnight.

    On a different note, ACE for the globe is at its lowest for any year since the early 1980s and may possibly break and observed record low before this year is over depending on what happens over the next couple weeks.

  20. Meanwhile I am wondering just how hard it will be raining tomorrow from 7-10 AM. Any input would help! It has to do with work I need to do around the condo complex.

  21. Thanks TK.

    The winter wishcasters aside (Mark captured about all of them above, lol), the talk of the town today among most mets is the big flip to a much warmer than previously predicted pattern in the East for at least the first half/two thirds of this month. If nothing else, everyone who was screaming cold East by 12/10 (there were many – not here of course!) are not going to be correct. The Pacific (-PNA) and Southeast Ridge combination is dominating this pattern – somewhat to my surprise as well. We’re mired in an unusually cold, wet pattern here on the West Coast with little sign of it breaking. I don’t think this will be the story of the entire season, but until it changes, odds don’t favor much cold wx over the East…

    The energy markets have certainly unwound in a huge way over the past week, good news for heating costs. A whole lot of cold weather got priced into the market late in November and has just as rapidly been priced out.

      1. Thanks WxWatcher always appreciate your posts! I do recall TK mentioning a couple of months back that he was seeing signs of it changing to a more wetter regime out there of which it is good news that it’s playing out that way.

    1. The overall sea ice is ahead of recent averages, but some areas are still open. Hudson Bay is one, for example. The Arctic air has been sitting just outside of those areas.

  23. WxW – I don’t think I captured above even a third of the tweets I saw about the impending doomsday winter weather pattern. That was just a sampling, lol.

    I did look in my twitter feed for posts about the upcoming pattern that were less optimistic, but couldn’t find much. Maybe its just because I follow a lot of snow loving mets and that is all I am seeing 🙂

    What I take from all this is that we have a more favorable winter pattern upcoming nationwide, but the transition may be more gradual/delayed, especially for us here in the East.

    That said, I do remain optimistic for the second half of the month and beyond. We have good old climatology on our side as well as we get closer to what is traditionally the meat of the winter season.

  25. Here’s another great chain of tweets from Tomer Burg explaining what happened with the forecast up until now and what may happen moving forward. Read from top down….

    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1600277675913846784?s=20&t=B9YG8H6sgYaopk6FdIzbaA

    If you are not interested in the technical portion, this is the final tweet:

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    33m

    Key points:

    -Above normal temps & little to no snow in the NE US through mid-month
    -Large uncertainty beyond mid-month, but while current indications are pattern may trend more favorable for NE US cold/snow, it is not a guarantee.

    1. While I hope for cold and snowy, I think that the latter paragraph sums up the reality of the situation:

      “Large uncertainty beyond mid-month, but while current indications are pattern may trend more favorable for NE US cold/snow, it is not a guarantee.,”

    2. I wish I could’ve worked alongside Tomer for longer. He was a great peer leader for me in the short time I spent at UAlbany. He is, in Boston terms, wicked smart. That’s the best thread I’ve seen today regarding what’s happened.

      And certainly not trying to discourage you posting the tweets! 🙂
      Just important to know that most of those voices aren’t exactly objective.

      Speaking in general terms, I still think this’ll be the coldest/snowiest winter of the last 3 for the Northeast US. My confidence in that has dipped somewhat if only because we’re losing what could have been a solid head start. But I think this winter will be a long haul, with an overall stormier pattern, more blocking (which should eventually match itself with a more cooperative Pacific), and no early season shutdown like the past couple years.

    1. Accumulated Cyclone Energy … basically the total “energy output” of the tropics, can be measured per basin or worldwide.

      It’s at a nearly all-time low. Tropics have been exceedingly quiet for quite a long while now.

      Also observing a cooling trend in the North Atlantic. I think both things are directly related to the AMO shifting its phase.

      As this goes on my theory is our springs will warm and our autumns will cool over the next few decades.

    1. I don’t think I’ve seen an upgrade cause this much trouble with a model yet. They really, really broke it this time…

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