Wednesday December 7 2022 Forecast (7:00AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A complex blocking pattern is taking shape and will have direct impact on our weather in the days ahead. First, a slow-moving trough and frontal system being slowed by a large high pressure area near Greenland will give us wet and mild weather today before a cold front pushes through, and Canadian high pressure brings dry, slightly colder weather for late week. The weekend has been carrying some uncertainty in its outlook for a few days now and this continues. We’ll have a large high pressure area extending across eastern Canada while low pressure sits off to our south, drifting to the east. The question is how close does this low come to us, and how much does the air flow between the low to the south and the high to the north add moisture to our weather to increase the chance of unsettled weather. Guidance, some of which is very unreliable, continues to vary on this. I continue to lean toward a lot of clouds, but mostly precipitation-free weather for the weekend at this time, but will continue to keep an eye on it for changes.

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)

It’s important to keep in mind that this continues to be a low confidence outlook with a complex blocking pattern and uncertain guidance performance. There are 2 potential storm systems that can impact the region with some kind of precipitation during this period. Temperatures may be variable but should average close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Low confidence but anticipating a blocking pattern will be continuing with near to below normal temperatures and at least one threat of precipitation. As previously stated, there will be a lot of monitoring and clarification needed as we go through time.

44 thoughts on “Wednesday December 7 2022 Forecast (7:00AM)”

    2. I hope you feel better Joshua.

      I have to admit that after reading up to “…in my,” my mind raced ahead to a different conclusion for your sentence.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    The CMC has mostly backed off from the snow event it depicted yesterday. So, there ya go.

  7. Seeing all the thoughts from the weather universe yesterday about future December weather, I have been inspired to make some predictions myself ……

    “As the days go by in December, increasing likelihood that January will follow.”

    “Confidence increasing that warm weather with possible hot spells and occasional thunderstorms will arrive the second half of July.”

    Bless them, these meteorologists flaw is their love of snow. So, I really don’t think they are telling you what they THINK will happen, rather its what they HOPE/WANT to happen.

    I really can’t take any of their thoughts on future cold/snowy patterns seriously.

    2. I’m holding to Pete’s musings. And I know they are musings since he knows the further out, the less accurate.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    I am feeling more accepting of the rainy days today than yesterday …after all April showers do bring May flowers.

    1. Thanks for sharing JPD. It’s amazing that it took until 1994 to officially recognize Pearl Harbor.

      12/7/1941

  11. Thanks TK.

    The tv mets continue to forecast coastal showers, drizzle and even snowflakes all weekend. Hope your “drier” scenario verifies TK.

    Get better soon Joshua. Hope that it’s not Covid related?

  12. Thanks TK.

    Hmmm…the 12z GFS, GGEM, and Euro now all on board with a potential snow event later Sunday into early Monday for SNE, focused more on CT, RI and west/central MA than eastern MA. This feature has been showing up consistently now on several model runs, especially the GFS and GGEM.

    GFS surface map for Sunday night:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022120712&fh=111&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    GGEM surface map:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022120712&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro surface (weaker and less organized but its there):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022120712&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Something to watch as this is only 4 days away at this point…

  14. Stephen Puglisi
    @stevectweather
    7h

    The first threat of accumulating snow has come into focus now for Sunday night into Monday morning. Amounts are currently all over the place, but inland areas could get several inches.

    1. LOL, they will be chiming in soon for sure 🙂

      I will say that this does not look like an eastern MA special right now on any of the models. I think we have a better chance for accumulating snow here in CT as well as in western MA. But still 4 days away and a lot to work out with this one…

    2. I’m not sure they can. Wording from Mets is wisely cautious. And that makes sense. I know absolutely nothing is written in stone or even penciled in, but these are great links and posts, Mark. Will be fun to see if anything develops

      1. See how quickly I can ignore Pete’s musings ….mention snow and everything else flies out the window 🙂

  18. Some Greenland news. No, not about the Greenlandic block. Rather, DNA retrieved from geological deposits show that Northern Greenland (places like Thule, where the U.S. has an air force base) was once home to an open boreal/arctic community including mastodon. So, yes, climate does change over time independent of humans and their potential impact on climate. This is not to say our notion of climate change today is not real. I think it’s real. It also doesn’t dispel the idea that humans can impact (speed up) climate change. https://twitter.com/miwipe81/status/1600522383449903104

  19. PM thoughts…

    * Nearing the end of our wet weather. Forecast above holds. High pressure noses in with drier weather, not too chilly tomorrow and a bit cooler Friday.

    * Weekend: Still leaning dry overall. If the system to the south does manage to meander far enough north to deliver precipitation, look for a relatively minor event, mix to snow inland, rain to mix ending as wet snow coast (probably all rain South Coast) with timing of Sunday PM to Monday AM. Caution… Just because you see the word “snow” do NOT translate that into “significant snowstorm”. It’s very unlikely.

    * Remembering the uncertainty, the pattern does improve next week but it will come down to timing and placement of features regarding any potential snow threat for at least parts of the area late next week (December 15-17 window).

    * Again remembering the even further uncertainty further out in time, I think the pattern is favorable for 1 or 2 snow chances for at least a portion of SNE the week leading up to Christmas (which is on a Sunday). Obviously forget about details / timing / specific days and just focus on the potential opportunity somewhere in there.

    Boston’s chance of a white Christmas right now: Still go with climatology. We don’t have enough confidence yet to go with anything other than that with the holiday still over 2 weeks in the future.

    Addressing earlier comments about TV folks and their forecasts of some potential precipitation around the weekend. It’s fair. There is evidence that it could happen either or both weekend days, even though I lean away from it myself. I can’t argue too much with putting it in a low percentage bracket since a weekend is involved and many people have pre-holiday plans (shopping, light tours, etc.). These media forecasts will be highly scrutinized, and whether the forecasters like putting #’s on icons days in advance or not, it’s in their job description, so keep that in mind. They don’t have a lot of time and space to explain all the uncertainty when having to pack a bunch of maps into a 3 minute presentation. Some of them can expand over social media, which is nice.

  20. Holy 18z GFS in the long range! Back to back major nor’easters the week before Christmas and multiple feet of snow inland. They will probably be gone in the next run but it’s pretty to look at 🙂

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