Thursday December 8 2022 Forecast (7:47AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)

A much-talked-about blocking pattern will control our weather in the days ahead. While often there is an assumption that blocking means we are in for days of unsettled weather (perhaps cold and snow in winter, overcast with rain and drizzle in spring), this is not necessarily the case. The resultant weather in any given location comes down to the details of the block and where systems are located and how they move. It’s complex. Focusing on this particular 5-day period, we find that mostly dry weather will be in control with Canadian high pressure centered to our north. Disturbances will be generally passing to our south, but one will make a more solid run at us later in the weekend, likely to be thwarted by the high to the north – the result being that it will have only minimal impact on us. Nevertheless, it’s worth watching closely because a slightly weaker high and/or a slightly stronger low and the results could be more significant.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, except rain/mix along the coast. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)

Blocking pattern continues. One storm threat comes mid to late period – timing and precipitation type uncertain. Details to be worked out. Temperatures variable – averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)

Blocking pattern expected to continue. Obviously low confidence but one or two systems may bring some precipitation to the region during this period. Temperatures variable – averaging near to slightly below normal.

60 thoughts on “Thursday December 8 2022 Forecast (7:47AM)”

    1. Yes, but with the downgrade, do you really trust this solution?

      CMC probably more likely and whatever the EURO shows probably even more likely.

      We shall see. 🙂

      1. Not really, it looks overdone across CT and RI but I’ll be interested to see what the short range models do with this system over the next 24-48 hours

  10. Thanks TK.

    Any snow is going to be difficult to achieve at the coastline. Ocean temperatures still way too warm.

    51-52F

      1. Yes, I had looked at that, but I was making a point about the lack of natural snow up North. Pretty sad.

    2. #1 takes the cake for sure! Wow! how could someone be
      that STUPID????????????????????????????????????????????????

    1. Seems to be less robust on the Euro as the system is losing some strength with the energy transfer to the developing coastal storm as it is passing over SNE.

  19. That storm signal in the Dec 15-17 time frame is interesting to me. We’re not seeing the “final” solution on today’s guidance, including the more stable ECMWF.

    The GFS is so completely broken now – its behavior is downright bizarre. I’ve seen 2 glaring examples today (one noted above, and another one that was shared with me privately regarding a snow forecast). I, along with pretty much every meteorologist and model enthusiast, have earned the right to be extremely disappointed that a model upgrade that CLEARLY failed was implemented anyway. I don’t have an issue with the failed upgrade. It’s all experimental to a large degree and not everything you try as intended improvement is going to work out, but at least take responsibility for it. If it was implemented, then it’s clear that responsibility has not been taken, but rather ignored. Sorry, but there is no excuse for it. They ran it in parallel, so it was known before implementation. Very poor practice. They need to fix the problem and I am hoping they are taking those steps now…

    Ok rant over. 🙂

    2. Are we going to get that development near the coast
      far enough East to bring some snow to Eastern sections?
      Still plenty of time. We shall see.

      1. Unclear on that, but let me say that solution is on the table. Just watching for things I’ve seen before with modeling in a similar pattern this far in advance.

        1. Thank you sir. It may be on the table, but I’ll bet it is more of an inside runner type coastal. We shall see. 🙂

    1. But it is much more robust than 12z. Good thump of snow just west of me (up to 6″ in SE NY). Get that a little further east and it could be interesting…

  21. If anyone’s in the Woburn area and wants to stop by Dave & Busters, I’m going to be at a gathering there with folks from a Facebook page I admin for the next few hours.

    I’m about to get my butt kicked (for the 4th time) by a TV weathercaster (works in the Midwest). 😉

      1. Translation: The negative phase Pacific / North American pattern has been one of the main drivers of the mild, snowless pattern in the US Northeast.

  24. I played 6 games of air hockey tonight. My arm hurts. HAHAHA.

    I went 5-1, with the one loss coming to the TV weathercaster, but I’m happy to say we played twice and I WON the first time against her. That was a first. 😉 … But we were even overall and now need a tiebreaker eventually. 🙂

  27. 0z GFS has taken a turn for the colder with the storm track for next week’s system. Mainly a snow event for most areas. 0z Canadian isnt that far off either.

    Unlike the fairly minor system coming through Sunday night, this next one has the potential to be more significant. Going to be an interesting week ahead tracking these for sure…

    1. That storm signal has been there for a while. Obviously the model details are all over the place but now it’s time to start watching trends more closely.

      I don’t think that’s going to be a warm storm for this area.

  29. Thanks TK.

    That time of the year to start tracking!
    GFS and EURO both have the system, the details of course are very different. GFS has 1 foot + region wide and euro much more down to earth. I wouldn’t focus on amounts clearly at this point, but rather look at the pattern.

    Blocking, good track should amount to a decent storm. Of course as JP has eluded to the water temps are above average so any east wind is a killer unless you get the right track and cold in the right spot this time of year. Generally temps look below normal in the long range so that’s good news for snow staying should it happen.

    1. Use extreme caution with GFS beyond 60 hours. Latest upgrade broke the model badly. Not fixed yet.

  30. These weaker systems approaching from the west and then redeveloping a fair distance southeast of us …….

    I wish all the mets luck on this one.

    Tough, tough, tough guessing where the precip kinda falls apart across New England as the offshore stuff blossoms.

    Not a big deal, but with everyone so pumped up for snow, the disappointment factor is so high on seeing a dusting vs nothing.

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