Friday December 9 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)

A blocking pattern will be in control of our weather for the foreseeable future. This pattern features high pressure at upper levels over Greenland extending into eastern Canada, and for this period of time will thwart storm systems from fully impacting our region. Surface high pressure in eastern Canada provides fair and chilly weather today. Two low pressure systems make runs at the Northeast from the west during the course of the weekend. The first will fall apart well to our west sending only high and mid level clouds into our region Saturday as some lower clouds also move in from the ocean due to a northeasterly air flow at the surface. The second low will have slightly more success getting far enough east to give us a heavier overcast and its snow shield will be pushing into the region Sunday evening while it is running into the high and drying up. Net result – minor snow event, favoring western portions of the WHW forecast area, i.e. southwestern NH through central MA to eastern CT. With milder air in place, any of this that reaches the South Coast region would probably be at least mixed with if not all rain – but very light amounts would occur either way. High pressure regains control of the weather early next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow by late afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, except rain/mix along the coast. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Guidance: Until GFS is fixed, cannot rely on it for this period of time. Typical beyond-day-4 uncertainties applied to other guidance along with known biases. Blocking continues. The high pressure area will likely be elongated from southern Greenland through eastern Canada during this period, with an upper level trough over the US Midwest to Northeast. Watching the December 15-17 window for a storm chance. Again guidance solutions (ensembles) are very wide-ranging with this system telling us there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the outcome for this area. My current idea is that we see a low pressure area that will head toward the Great Lakes initially but unable to continues, therefore undergoing some kind of redevelopment / east southeast movement. Questions to be answered include what type / variety of precipitation if we get direct impact, or does it end up moving so far south we get skirted or even missed? Fair, colder weather returns for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)

Blocking pattern expected to continue. Early hints are upper high pressure scoots back toward Greenland with another upper high in western Canada. In between is the trough position with disturbances dropping out of Canada, through the Great Lakes and Northeast. Again remember that with guidance uncertainties and the typical “too far in the future for details” applied that we can’t have any kind of high confidence on day-to-day details, but the idea is a chilly pattern with a couple opportunities for precipitation – probably favoring snow over rain. But we have a long way to go to fine-tune this pre-Christmas period of time everybody will be paying close attention to.

69 thoughts on “Friday December 9 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  3. I just heard somebody on the radio talking about how the Sunday night snowstorm is going to mess up the Monday morning commute.

    I rolled my eyes so hard I almost sprained them. I did laugh out loud so if anybody at the intersection saw me I hope they realized I was just listening to the radio and not telling myself jokes. 😉

    1. ha ha ha Yeah sure, the Monday morning commute will messed up! NOT! Snowstorm??? Is that guys off his rocker? Snowstorm? Really? WOW!

        1. My wife likes that station. It is better than Mix 104 and that other station down the end of the dial. Me, well, let’s say I enjoy other stations. 🙂

    3. This is why I listen to SiriusXM. The only times I listen to terrestrial radio are if I am in my car and I want to listen to the Bruins/Patriots/Red Sox.

  4. Thanks TK.

    I believe that today is the earliest sunset (4:11 pm). 🙂

    Unfortunately, the latest sunrise won’t occur until sometime in early January. Morning darkness will continue to rule for many weeks still to come. 🙁

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Certainly NOT impressed with the Sunday night system.
    Not even convinced any precip makes it to Boston. We shall see.

    More concerned about the next one in the 12/15-12/17 time frame. Although the CMC and the GFS (suspect I know), are coming more and more inline with a better coastal set up. So far still NOT far enough East, but better than previous runs.
    Would be nice to get a nice snow storm out of this, but I fear any snow will be confined to inland areas and up north. Not the best set up for a SNE snow storm. Could it be? Sure. Will it be? TBD

    6Z GFS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022120906&fh=192

    0Z CMC.GDPS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2022120900&fh=162

    Some timing/intensity differences there

    0Z EURO

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2022120900&fh=174

  8. Thanks TK
    I remember 17 years ago today when bombogensis happened with a storm that caused hurricane force wind gusts on the cape

    1. I remember that very well also, JJ. One horrendous commute for many, including five hours for Mac. I also remember other December 9 storms and the one in 1992 that just missed the 9th. But will never remember any as fondly as the one on December 9, 1978. It rained hard all day and Mac and I went into the church to exchange our vows. When we came our, it the rain had changed to huge snowflakes. Our reception at the Belmont Tennis Club had a fieldstone fireplace with a roaring fire and a full wall of glass overlooking the woods as they filled with snow. Later at the Hyatt Cambridge, we saw our first thunder snow ❤️

  15. The weekend system, while the typical time questions were in effect, should never have excited anyone. The pattern evolution pointed to the result we’re going to get.

  21. Thanks TK.

    Besides its documented large scale statistical degradation, the new GFS is also wildly inconsistent. It’s always best to speak in general terms when it comes to modeling, but one thing I liked about the previous version is that overall it tended to be fairly consistent days 3-7, even if not always correct. I’d much rather have consistent errors and try to establish bias corrections than a total dartboard approach where one of them is bound to hit but most are wildly off-center. That seems to be the case with the new version. Not surprisingly, all models are and will probably continue to struggle and show some inconsistency as this unusual pattern develops, but it’s pretty clear the GFS is bottom of the barrel.

    Either way, as we head deeper into this month, I would certainly have your snow shovels ready to go…..

    2. Like today’s 12z GFS which completely misses with next late week’s storm.

      I just can’t be more aggravated at the sake of change for the sake of change and how MANY times, the new and improved thing stinks compared to an older version.

      1. How they let that “upgrade” go to production is beyond me!
        Someone should be FIRED for that decision!!!!!

        1. Or at least encouraged to publicly come out and say that they are going to use the older version until they reevaluate the new one. I know admitting poor performance isnt ideal, but like everyone is figuring out that its performing poorly.

          1. I wrote to them a few days ago and of course have received no reply.

            Not a surprise, honestly.

            So, I did the right thing, but it gets us nowhere.

            That’s good as saying “you’re not important enough for us to care”. Yay, government! Nice job! 😉

      2. Very odd they went live with the upgrade given its performance. Seems like they just went with it and didn’t validate.

    2. Actually, the block is going to prevent a lakes cutter. If you take the Euro run verbatim, and trust that it’s right this far in advance (which believe me, it’s not), then we’d have a messy scenario there.

      We’re not at the final solution yet.

      FWIW, that track is pretty much south of I-90, taken as is. That’s WAY, WAY south of where it was just a couple days ago (a few runs ago). I heard someone say watch for that trend. 😉

  25. 18z NAM 10:1 snow multiplied by about 0.75 is about the maximum I expect with that Sunday system. Little wildcard with potential ocean effect snow sometime Saturday PM South Shore to South Coast belt. I’m not overly excited about that right now.

  26. The clear sky twilights have been growing increasingly colorful (without the help of clouds). I think this is due to Hunga Tonga.

        2. Technically that solution is on the table. But the storm system would likely not be that powerful.

          I would call that particular solution a remote possibility right now.

  28. You would think we have a major storm on the way for Boston with the way the news is going on & on & on , enough already !

    1. https://photos.app.goo.gl/DnBFBCeUwwPkbN1t7

      That link is to a photo taken by my friend Mike who was a member of a page I am an admin on. Several of us gathered last night for some food and fun where I once again attempted to end my losing streak against my friend Emily who is currently a TV weather broadcaster for WSIL in Indiana.

      In this particular photo we were tied at two and I went on to defeat her 7-4 for my first ever win against her. I enjoyed the glorious moment for a relatively short time as in the rematch she beat me. We won’t be able to break that tie until sometime in 2023. Haha!

      Last night was a good air hockey night for yours truly. I went 5-0 against five different people and then finally lost my last game against my arch rival. 🙂 I am not used to that table as I usually play at Hampton Beach and the tables are different but it worked out!

      This was a very fun evening.

  29. Thanks, TK!

    JJ and others mentioned that incredible bombogenesis 17 years ago earlier on.
    It was raining in Middleborough at 1:30. At dismissal, 20 minutes later, there was a complete whiteout with pine trees cracking and crashing on campus.
    It is the most intense weather event in my lifetime.

    Hope everyone enjoyed the extra of second of sunlight this afternoon! 🙂

    What an epic day of World Cup soccer: Croatia and Argentina are through to the semis, both winning in PKs!

    TK, I enjoyed the comment about air hockey last night. It helped me remember playing knock hockey at summer camp, and playing rod hockey with my brothers, one of my favorite Christmas presents.

    I also loved playing the football game on the metal, vibrating field with the plastic players. I could never get the running back to “run” in the right direction. The quarterback would throw the felt football into the couch cushions, never to be seen again.

    I have one of those games down in the cellar.

    Good times.

    1. Thanks, TK.

      I’m very depressed about today’s loss to Argentina. It’ll take several days to get over it. Soccer is the only sport I feel so strongly about (well, when there’s a World or European Cup), and in this case, I root for my second homeland; the Netherlands. Frankly, I don’t care that much about local Boston teams winning. I get over losses quickly with all 4 teams. Not the Netherlands’ losses. The Dutch will never win a World Cup in my lifetime. That I am sure of. It’s not a curse. It’s just the way it is.

      While I don’t like Messi personally (I find his personality grating), he’s the greatest soccer player I’ve ever seen play live. I never got to see Pele play live, so I can’t compare.

      1. Did you see his assist on the first goal? Insane.

        I actually saw Pele play 1975 when the Cosmos played The Boston Minutemen at Schaefer Stadium. I also saw Maradona in the 94 World Cup in Foxborough.

        I am so sorry about your Netherlands side, Joshua. Four years is an awfully long time for another chance.

        However, it is indeed The Beautiful Game.

  30. 00z NAM Snow for Sunday night:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022121000&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Nice hit for western and central MA with 3-6″ and a good hit for us here in northern CT as well with 2-3″. Just need to lock it in.

    As far as the system late next week, the train wreck that is the GFS has completely lost the storm in its 0Z run while the 00z GGEM is a huge hit for most of SNE.

    Surface map for Thursday night:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022121000&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow (both storms combined) with a 24-30″ bullseye from Hartford and Tolland Counties up into Worcester County:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022121000&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    That would put us in good shape for a white Xmas!

  31. 00z NAMs.
    3km version is probably a better representation for what may take place than the overdone 12km version.

    GFS will be garbage for a while.
    GEM is also, but for a different reason.

    ECMWF is probably the only piece of guidance that may have a clue on the Dec 15-17 window.

    Alot of snow weenies out there will just pick the model that shows the most snow and go with it, while applying no meteorology whatsoever, but we all know that anyway. 🙂

    Already got a couple private messages tonight from people asking about the “1 to 4 inches of snow Sunday” and the “big snowstorm late next week”. I’m starting to reply with things like: “Refer to our conversation from last winter about this.” 😉

    Adequate. 🙂

      1. Well it depends on what kind of snow weenie we’re talking about. 😉

        The good kind just tend to be called snow lovers. 😉

        The other kind that just look for any opportunity to post a model run showing the biggest storm tend to populate social media and spread their garbage about.

        The educated snow weenies populate blogs like this one. 😉
        The rest of them can do whatever they need to do on Twitter & Facebook. 😉

  33. New weather post…
    I tried to write a shorter blog today – that never seems to work. HAHAHA

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